Despite the loss, Penn State Football stays put in ESPN FPI
Penn State Football is coming off their first setback of the 2023 season on Saturday and with that, the Nittany Lions have fallen in ESPN's FPI. That being said, the Nittany Lions despite the loss to Ohio State has stayed put in the FPI at No. 3 in the country.
The only schools ahead of the Nittany Lions? The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines. ESPN's FPI ranks Penn State's strength of resume as the 14th best in the country while ranking the program's overall efficiency as the fourth best in the country including the top defensive efficiency in the country. But what about the Penn State offense? It ranks No. 26 in the country, 14 spots behind Ohio State at No. 14 and 24 spots behind Michigan who has the No. 2 offensive efficiency in the country.
The top three defensive efficiencies? You guessed, right behind Penn State is Michigan and Ohio State.
With Penn State coming off the loss, here's how ESPN's FPI projects the rest of Penn State's schedule.
| GAME | LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY | CHANGE SINCE LAST WEEK | PROJ. RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Oct. 28 vs. Indiana |
98.2% |
+0.1% |
7-1 (4-1) |
|
Nov. 4 @ Maryland |
83.0% |
-0.5% |
8-1 (5-1) |
|
Nov. 11th vs. Michigan |
50.0% |
-7.3% |
8-2 (6-2)* |
|
Nov. 18th vs. Rutgers |
94.3% |
-0.6% |
9-2 (7-2) |
|
Nov. 25th @ Michigan State |
95.0% |
+1.8% |
10-2 (8-2) |
WHAT IS THE ESPN FPI?
From ESPN's An inside look at College FPI
"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams."
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