Did ESPN's FPI projections change after Penn State's latest win?
The Penn State Nittany Lions defeated the Indiana Hoosiers 33-24 on Saturday afternoon, bouncing back from their first loss of the season to Ohio State in Week 9.
Now sitting at 7-1 on the season, the Nittany Lions will take on Big Ten East rival Maryland on Saturday before preparing for a season-defining matchup against Michigan on November 11.
With that, how does ESPN's FPI view the remainder of the Nittany Lions' schedule playing out? Happy Valley Insider takes a look below.
With Penn State coming off the loss, here's how ESPN's FPI projects the rest of Penn State's schedule.
| GAME | LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY | CHANGE SINCE LAST WEEK | PROJ. RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Nov. 4 @ Maryland |
83.0% |
0.0% |
8-1 (5-1) |
|
Nov. 11th vs. Michigan |
45.7% |
-4.3% |
8-2 (6-2)* |
|
Nov. 18th vs. Rutgers |
92.3% |
-2.0% |
9-2 (7-2) |
|
Nov. 25th @ Michigan State |
94.5% |
+0.5% |
10-2 (8-2) |
WHAT IS THE ESPN FPI?
From ESPN's An inside look at College FPI
"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams."
--------------------------------------------------------------
• Subscribe to our YouTube Channel