DK's Thoughts: 2023-2024 Big Ten Basketball Preview

After another semi-disappointing Big Ten showing in the 2023 NCAA Tournament that saw only Michigan State exceed seed line expectations, the conference will look to get back on track again in 2023-2024. Whether it’s style of play, the meat grinder of a 20-game slate with very few cupcake games or venues, or simply not enough high-level talent in the league, the past few years have been a bit of a black eye for the conference come March.

Michigan made an Elite Eight in 2020-2021, but collectively there has been just a total of four second weekend appearances in the last three years for the conference (Michigan twice, Purdue, MSU). Hopefully this is the year where the top of the league can again break through and make some national noise.

The extreme transfer portal movement has finally settled down, with almost all of the big names now coming off the board. Subject to a possible late addition, most Big Ten rosters are set and therefore fans can now argue endlessly on roster construction, strengths and weaknesses, and the preseason pecking order. It’s difficult in list making to appease every fan base, but at least in article form I can provide rationale and context behind where I have teams ranked, the nuance of which is often lost on Twitter.

Love it or hate it, I did my best to dig deep into these teams and tried to provide an objective basis for my selections. As always, following the non-conference season I will adjust accordingly based on early results and publish a final power ranking prior to the start of Big Ten play. So without further ado, let’s dive in…

1. Purdue Boilermakers

2022-23 (29-6, 15-5, B1G Regular Season and BTT Champs, 1 seed, RD64 exit to Fairleigh Dickinson)

Last season I admittedly did not know how to rank a Purdue team that lost its first-team All-American and top-five NBA draft pick in Jaden Ivey and replaced him with freshmen in the back-court. I correctly predicted Zach Edey as Big Ten Player of the Year, but undervalued just how dominant he would be (22.3 points per game and 12.9 rebounds per game) on his way to a clean sweep of the NPOY awards. He provided an incredible safety blanket to the roster, especially for the two young guards, and despite the guards' late season plateau, Purdue won the conference by a margin of three games and cruised to a double-title snag in the Big Ten Tournament. The Boilermakers finished the year ranked seventh overall on Kenpom with a top-12 offense and a top-24 defense, and they returned their entire starting lineup, getting a huge boon with Edey’s return from the NBA Draft.

Until proven otherwise, Purdue is the team to beat in the conference. But the elephant in the room is that nothing that Purdue does in the regular season can truly appease its fan base if that success is not matched in the NCAA Tournament. After falling to 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson this past season (as a No. 1 seed), 15-seeded St. Peters in 2022 (as a No. 3 seed), and 13-seeded North Texas in 2021 (as a No. 4 seed), the pressure for this team will firmly be on what it does in March. Will this be the group to break through the postseason stigma that now hangs over the program?

For that to happen the 3-point shooting/spacing around Edey needs to improve. Purdue finished 276th in 3FG% at 32.2% last season and while I expect Fletcher Loyer’s percentage to go up (32.6% on 5.2 3-point attempts per game), it’s unclear where exactly the rest of the perimeter shooting improvement will come from. SIU transfer Lance Jones is more of a ball handler than David Jenkins was, but that doesn’t exactly solve the shooting woes (32.7% on 5.3 3FGA over his four year career, 28% on 7.6 3FGA last season) and he’s taking a giant leap up in overall competition.

Myles Colvin, a 6-foot-5, 200-pound shooting guard/small forward (ranked 52nd nationally by Rivals) is a powerful, downhill athlete who has comfortable shooting form, but much of his game in high school was punishing teams around the rim. His two-way involvement should raise the overall ceiling for this Purdue squad, but does head coach Matt Painter overcome his clear love of senor Ethan Morton (25.1 MPG-27.7% from deep) to make way for significant Colvin minutes?

The back-court made up of freshmen was very solid last year, jumps in consistency from both guys are expected, but Braden Smith/Loyer do have some backcourt size/athletic concerns that against certain matchups remain a concern. The bench depth is solid in the front-court with Caleb Furst/Trey Kaufman-Renn, but remains unproven at positions one through three. Purdue is a legitimate top-five preseason team with the return of Edey, but how good the Boilermakers can be in the national context is heavily dependent on the development of the underclassmen and getting meaningful production from the bench at the point guard through small forward positions.

2. Michigan State

2022-23 (21-13, 11-8, 4th place Big Ten, 7 seed, S16 Exit to Kansas State)

Michigan State was one of the largest winners across the country in terms of player retention, with both Tyson Walker and Malik Hall opting to come back for a fifth year and Jaden Akins remaining in the fold (which wasn’t a surety in the portal madness that consumed many a roster this offseason), along with A.J. Hoggard (both Akins and Hoggard declared for the NBA Draft before returning to MSU).

After a bit of an up-and-down year that was plagued with significant injuries to two of their top-six players in Hall and Akins, the Spartans were able to put it all together in the NCAA Tournament, beating No. 10-seeded USC and No. 2-seed Marquette before falling to No. 3 seeded Kansas State in an overtime Sweet 16 matchup that was widely regarded as a top-three game in the entire tournament.

Between Hoggard, Walker, Akins, highly-touted freshman Jeremy Fears Jr. and Tre Holloman, MSU has one of the deepest guard rooms across the nation, and will likely start a lineup of all upperclassmen with an average age of 22.2. Last season, 16 of the 20 players starting in the Final Four were upperclassmen, and the mix of veterans and back-court play is a combination that bodes well for MSU in the season ahead.

That said, MSU has some work to do after finishing 26th on Kenpom with the 27th-best offense and 42nd-best defense (although according to Bart Torvik, MSU's offense over its last 10 games was fifth in the country, while the defense simultaneously dipped to 88th). To go from fringe top-25 team to a bona fide top five or top-10 team, MSU will need to protect the paint better (102nd in two-point field goal defense last season) and score MUCH more efficiently at the rim and inside in the arc (two-point field goal offense was 269th last year).

Luckily, help in those departments has hit the East Lansing campus. After a lack of clear-cut NBA athleticism over the past few seasons, MSU’s top-five incoming freshman class should provide a much-needed injection of just that. The 6-foot-7 forward, Coen Carr (34th nationally), is pound-for-pound the best athlete in the 2023 class. Xavier Booker (16th nationally) is 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and has next-level athleticism, and point guard Jeremy Fears. Jr (38th nationally) is both laterally and vertically explosive (not to mention SG/SF Gehrig Normand’s sneaky bounce at 6-foot-6).

The bench for MSU will be vastly deeper and more talented than last year, but integrating this loaded freshman class into the mix of veterans will be key for Tom Izzo to maximize the rotation as a whole. After several down years, the Spartans are back in the national picture with aspirations of an appearance in Phoenix in 2024.

This tier is pretty fluid with minimal degrees of separation between No. 3 to No. 8. Most of these teams have clear flaws, or too many unknowns to quite slot them in the Big Ten contender tier, but as a whole the potential of this group feels a bit higher than last year based on roster construction. There are some clear cut rising returnees on essentially every roster, and most teams have a high level freshman prospect (or two) or significant portal additions that have reinforced the roster. I’d expect that maybe only one of these teams ends up a No. 5-seed or lower, with most falling in that No.6 to No.9 range, but across the board the guard play should be better and therefore the possibility of a team or two from this tier breaking through the first weekend of the tournament is greater.

3. Wisconsin

2022-23 (20-15, 9-11, 11th place Big Ten, No Tourney Bid)

Picking the third best team in the conference to get this part of the tier started was perhaps the most difficult decision in making this list. I went back and forth numerous times, but ultimately picked the team that I believe has the steadiest floor. On a nightly basis you know what you’re going to get from Wisconsin: fundamental, mostly mistake-free basketball that will force teams to grind on both sides of the ball. Wisconsin finished 61st in Kenpom last year with the 140th-best offense (yuck) and the 19th-best defense. Following an ankle injury to Tyler Wahl in early January that kept him out three games, Wisconsin lost six of their next seven and failed to string together consecutive Big Ten wins for the rest of the year. Wahl never looked healthy following his return and Wisconsin finished 11th, failing to make the NCAA Tournament for just the second time since Greg Gard took over for Bo Ryan midseason in 2015-2016.

However, despite the overall down year, it's easy to forget that Wisconsin got off to a good start last year. The Badgers beat Dayton and USC, and lost to Kansas by a single point in overtime in the Battle for Atlantis. They were also the only team to beat Marquette on their home floor last season. Historically the Badgers have also been very steady in Big Ten play under Gard. During his tenure they’ve finished third, second, ninth, fourth, first, sixth, first and now 11th, which speaks to the relative consistency the program has shown, despite the lack of aesthetic appeal. Wisconsin brings back essentially their entire roster with Chucky Hepburn, Wahl, and Steven Crowl as the upperclassmen backbone, setting a comfortable, albeit vanilla floor for the group.

However, upside is attainable on the roster, as they added St. John’s wing transfer AJ Storr who averaged 8.8 PPG shooting 40.4% from deep (2.8 3FGA) in his freshman season, and there are reasonable expectations for a strong sophomore leap from shooting guard Connor Essegian (11.7 PPG & 3.7 RPG, 36% from deep on 5.5 3FGA) who showed well last season. The combination of the two underclassmen wings along with another step forward from Wofford transfer Max Klesmit, who closed the last 12 games of the season for the Badgers averaging 10.5 PPG while shooting 43.8% from deep on four 3-point field goal attempts per game, gives Wisconsin a sneaky good SG/SF rotation that can boost an offense in dire need of shot making. Incoming freshman center Gus Yalden (125th) also looks like a prototypical skilled Badger big, capable of boosting the front-court depth.

How good Wisconsin can be next year offensively in part relies on Gard reconfiguring the offense to play through the wing again (a la Johnny Davis year), while letting the aforementioned upperclassmen be more of the complementary pieces to the upside of the Essegian, AJ Storr, Max Klesmit trio. If the insistence by the staff remains on force feeding Wahl/Crowl in the post and Hepburn jacking up contested shots in crunch time, I like the roster configuration much less and would expect the Badgers to trend more toward the middle of the pack. Ultimately this is a bet on consistency and Gard figuring out where the ball needs to go to markedly improve a belabored offense from a season ago. While I like the NCAA Tournament upside more from other Big Ten teams that are to follow on this list, I feel reasonably certain Wisconsin finishes somewhere between third and fifth next year in what will likely be a clogged second tier.

4. Ohio State

2022-23 (16-9, 5-15, 13th place Big Ten, No Tourney Bid)

If my third pick is a floor safe bet, my fourth is a swing on upside with Ohio State. Last year was by all accounts a disappointing season for a roster that should have had tourney bid aspirations, but went on a hellacious losing streak following Zed Key’s injury that saw the Buckeyes lose 14 of 15 games from Jan, 5 to Feb. 23. However, the Buckeyes turned it around late, winning five of their last seven, including three wins in the Big Ten tournament. Bruce Thornton’s eight-game close to the season — where he averaged 16.4 points, 3.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game, while shooting 55.9% inside the arc and 38.2% from deep (4.3 3FGA) — was as encouraging a freshman finish as to be found anywhere in the conference, and sophomore leaps from Thornton, Roddy Gayle and Felix Okpara, along with the return of Key and addition of Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle should set a safe floor.

The roster will again be reliant in large part on underclassmen with the departures of Justice Sueing, Sean McNeil and Isaac Likekele, but this incoming crop of talent has multiple high level prospects in 6-foot-4 combo guard Taison Chatman (40th), 6-foot-7 Forward Devin Royal (49th), and 6-foot-6 wing Scotty Middleton (50th), who all should contribute immediately.

Chris Holtmann’s ability to develop scoring guards (Duane Washington Jr,, Malaki Branham) and tweener forwards (Keita Bates-Diop, EJ Liddell, Brice Sensabaugh) into pro prospects has helped on the recruiting trail, which is reflected in this year’s class, but it has also hampered to a certain degree his ability to fully develop a roster. A victim of his own success at finding and maximizing underrated prospects, one of Holtmann’s largest problems has been the blossoming of those prospects too quickly in his system before their full impact can be felt on his own roster. EJ Liddell (41st nationally) took a massive jump his sophomore year and departed, last year’s roster would have been infinitely sounder had Malaki Branham (44th) not evolved into a one-and-done first-rounder, and this year Brice Sensabuagh (69th) will end up a mid-first rounder after an impressive offensive showing in his lone freshman season.

Luckily, after patching together the point guard position for the last few years, Holtmann now has his best lead guard since he took the helm at OSU in 2017-2018, and the majority of last year’s class and the present one hitting campus this summer trends toward being more longer term college prospects. The name of the game in college hoops is to get old and stay old, and by stacking high upside three-to-four-year players, OSU has the chance to not only be good next year, but also for the foreseeable future.

However, for this year’s roster to take a leap forward and return Ohio State back into the top-five of the conference (where Holtmann has finished in four out of his six years since taking over for Thad Matta), the defensive side of the ball MUST be fixed. Under Holtmann’s tenure the offense has been top-20 in five of his six seasons, and should be again this year, but after finishing top-25 defensively in his first three years, OSU has plummeted to an average of 100th-best over its ast three seasons (Kenpom). Okapara made strides to close the year and should help to solidify paint protection going forward, but it needs to be a team wide buy-in if OSU is going to compete at the top of the conference again.

This selection is based on Bruce Thornton picking up right where he left off, Holtmann finding his next great scorer from the talented underclassmen, and the program as a whole turning the defense back into something more formidable in order to firmly turn the page on a mostly abysmal 2022-2023 season.

5. Maryland

2022-23 (22-13, 11-9, T5 in Big Ten, 8 seed RD32 Exit to Alabama)

Maryland exceeded expectations last season by a reasonable margin, but had a very odd year. The Terrapins went completely undefeated at home in conference play, but won just once on the road at Minnesota (216th in Kenpom), and won just two true road games throughout the entire season, the other being Louisville (290th). There’s likely a regression to the mean coming on both sides of last year’s track record for the Terrapins, but losses of their second-leading scorer Hakim Hart (transfer to Villanova), Ian Martinez (40.3% from deep, currently in the portal), and the graduation of Donald Carey, have stripped the 328th best 3-point shooting team last season (32.8%) of its three best volume shooters.

Jahmir Young (15.8 PPG, 3.1 APG to 2.3 TOV, 4.6 RPG) should take another step forward in terms of production but it's hard to envision with the departing floor spacers that his efficiency (41.5%/31.1%/83.1%) dramatically increases. Julian Reese (11.4 PPG and 7.2 RPG) is a solid piece at center, but needs to do a better job staying out of foul trouble, D’onta Scott has been trending downward in efficiency since his sophomore year, and the rest of last year’s roster remaining is pretty underwhelming. They added Jordan Geronimo from Indiana who saw his minutes get gobbled up by younger and more talented players, big man Mady Traore (former top-100 prospect) from New Mexico State, and guard Chance Stephens from Loyola Marymount, but I’m not sure any of those pieces can be relied upon for significant contributions.

The biggest swing pieces for the roster reside in incoming freshmen, 6-foot-4 combo guard Deshawn Harris-Smith (32nd) and 6-foot-6 forward Jaime Kaiser (65th), one or preferably both of whom will need to be an integral part of the roster for Maryland to stay out of the middle of the pack. After watching film on Harris-Smith, it feels like a relatively safe bet given Maryland’s need and his anticipated large role from day one that he will make one of the biggest freshman impacts in the conference. A physical, downhill guard with the ability to finish both above the rim with power or craftily with finesse, Harris-Smith has NBA upside and should fit snugly beside Young to give Maryland one of the more potent one-two scoring combos in the Big Ten this year.

6. Illinois

2022-23 (20-13, 11-9, T5 Big Ten, 9 seed-RD64 Exit to Arkansas)

Illinois got a huge windfall with the return of Terence Shannon, Jr. and to a lesser degree, Coleman Hawkins' return from the NBA Draft. They added a few more form fitting pieces from the transfer portal (6-foot-6 wing Marcus Domask, 6-foot-7 forward Quincy Guerrier, 6-foot-4 guard Justin Harmon) who should help the dismal 3-point shooting from a season ago (30.8%-335th in the country), but again swung and missed on a clear cut starting lead guard with RayJ Dennis, who was long thought to be an Illini favorite, choosing Baylor in the end. The roster is composed of very solid role players (Luke Goode, Ty Rodgers, Sencire Harris) and the transfer portal rounded out a safer floor than last year, but the transfers of Skyy Clark, RJ Melendez, and especially Jayden Epps have stripped the roster of some of its continuity and potentially developed upside. I’m high on incoming freshman, 6-foot-1 combo guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (130th) outplaying his undervalued ranking and being a real contributor next season, and 6-foot- Amani Hansberry (67th) should also get some run (although his position is a bit blocked by older players at the moment), but who's the table setter?

Shannon (17.2 PPG, 2.8 APG, 4.6 RPG) was a first-team All Big Ten selection and has a stake as the conference’s best all-around guard, but we saw how labored the offense became in spots after Skyy Clark’s departure with no true distributor on the roster (68th-best offense on Kenpom). Asking Shannon to defend the best opposing perimeter player, be the primary ball handler, AND be the go-to scorer didn’t go extremely well last season, and it’s hard to see that dramatically changing with no bona fide Big Ten caliber point guard on the roster.

I don’t foresee Justin Harmon or Temple transfer Jeremiah Williams (who is coming off an achilles injury) being able to fill that role at a top-half conference level, and there has been some recent chatter that one or both may be unable to transfer to Illinois due to academic credit issues which would leave the spot threadbare. There’s some thought that Ty Rodgers may end up ultimately getting handed the duties, which would be interesting in theory but a complete unknown in practicality. Playing essentially a complete non-shooter at the PG position who has more of a slasher’s handle than a primary ball-handler’s one would be a large gamble. He would have the ability to create some advantages with his size and athleticism, but the paint would be constantly packed in the half-court with teams going under screens on him and begging him to try to beat them with his jump shot. It would be a fascinating experiment to watch from afar, but the varying results would have an incredible margin between the potential floor and ceiling of such a move.

In addition the idea of Coleman Hawkins as a versatile Swiss army knife has always been greater in thought than practice. Over his three-year career he has proven to be a below average 3-point shooter (28.1%) despite his desire to prove otherwise (four 3FGA per game last year at 28%), is as likely to turn it over as make a good pass (1.8 APG to 1.5 TOV career, 3 APG to 2.5 TOV in 2022-2023), has poor shot selection in crucial moments, and doesn’t offer a true low-post scoring presence despite his 6-foot-11 stature. He’s an above average defender with switchability, but in essence should be a solid role player offensively (third/fourth option), instead of a primary offensive focus. If Illinois is going to be good next year, a lot rests on Hawkins becoming a more mature and focused player, which at this point in his career he simply hasn’t proven yet.

The roster in short just feels a touch incomplete. If they could somehow add a primary playmaker like what Paul Mulcahy, who just recently entered the portal, was for Rutgers, it would spring the rotation up several spots for me, but after being much too high on Illinois last season, this feels a bit more of a prove it to me spot for the Fighting Illini in 2023-2024.

7. Indiana

2022-23 (23-12, 12-8, T2 Big Ten, 4 seed-RD32 Exit to Miami)

I’ve caught a bit of flak on twitter for my positioning on Indiana, but I’m not sure what else I can say other than the addition of five stars to Indiana has failed to move the needle in any significant way for most of the last decade, and I’m not sure I see that changing all of a sudden this year. Indiana lost its three primary scorers in Jalen Hood-Schifino (NBA Draft), Trayce Jackson-Davis (NBA Draft), and Miller Kopp (graduation), and one of their best 3-point shooters (37.4% on 2.8 3FGA) in former five-star Tamar Bates (transfer to Missouri).

Failing to make a single second weekend in TJD’s four years, Indiana’s two collective staffs should be ashamed of how incapable they were of compiling a suitable roster around one of the best two-way college bigs the Midwest has seen this century. The roster undoubtedly looks much different if Xavier Johnson doesn’t break his foot, but the consistent lack of spacing/shooting around TJD during his career at Indiana was frustrating to watch.

And therein lies my biggest concern once again with this new iteration of the Hoosiers’ roster. Former five-star Kel’el Ware was a very solid upside snag this offseason, but he had an underwhelming freshman season at Oregon, averaging 6.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, while playing just 15.8 minutes per game on a non-tournament roster. The 7-footer is more of a pick-and-roll rim runner and face-up guy than a true low-post block player, so he could offer a touch more spacing in the mid-range where he shot 42.6% on 66 field goal attempts, but he has work to do on his 3-point shot (27.3% on 55 3FGA) and isn’t a true stretch center at the moment.

Sophomore Malik Reneau has more offensive upside at the power forward spot than Race Thompson did, but most of his work is done in the paint and he went just 2-for-8 from deep last season. Former Duke commit, five-star Mackenzie Mgbako (ninth overall) is a tantalizing mix of athleticism and mid-range shotmaking, but his swing skill, 3-point shooting, to make his expected positioning at the small forward spot work is a huge question mark. He’s not a guy that is overly comfortable attacking off the bounce at the current stage of his development and in EYBL play last summer he shot just 20% from beyond the arc. If he struggles to shoot in the mid-30s, the roster’s starting three, four and five spots will provide almost no spacing and nullify perhaps Xavier Johnson’s best asset, which is attacking downhill.

Johnson is coming off a broken foot that kept him out of most of last season and by trade is a medium volume perimeter shooter who is probably best categorized as streaky from deep (3.1 3FGA over four years at a 34.9% clip). The other projected starter, Trey Galloway, shot 46.2% last season, but only on two 3FGA per game and over his three years he’s shooting just 33.3% on 1.6 3FGA. Incoming freshman Gabe Cupps (118th), a 6-foot-1 combo guard, is billed as a knockdown shooter, but it’s anyone’s guess at his current weight of 165-170 pounds if he is going to be day one ready to play in the Big Ten. At 6-foot-6, CJ Gunn has been pointed out by the fan base as a potential perimeter threat to carve out a larger role, but he played just 7.5 minutes per game as a freshman last year and went 2-for24 (8.3%) from deep. That’s pretty FAR from any kind of proven commodity.

Indiana was 354th out of 363 teams in 3FGA last season and just lost its top-three volume shooters in Kopp (44%), Bates (37.4%) and Hood-Schifino (33.3%), with no clear cut replacements hitting the roster. While I am high on the potential defensive upside of the roster, especially in the front-court where there is a ton of athleticism and length, I would fully expect teams to simply pack the paint early and often and force Indiana to prove they can hit perimeter jump shots to beat you. The roster has talent, but there isn’t a secondary ball-handler on the perimeter, and the fit is extremely clunky unless Mgbako becomes a serviceable perimeter threat from day one. He has immense talent, so it’s possible, but a lot of the offense is riding on him being able to take 3-4 threes a game and hit them at a 35%-plus clip.

The jury’s still out on the Mike Woodson experiment, especially his ability to construct a complete roster where all the pieces complement each other. The rotation has more upside than a couple of teams in front of them, but I’m skeptical if Woodson is the guy to maximize it all. Indiana was probably the hardest team for me to rank in this tier, and I am open to re-evaluating the Hoosiers' positioning after the non-conference, but similar to Illinois it feels like a roster that is a touch incomplete.

8. Michigan

2022-23 (18-16, 11-9. T5 in Big Ten, No Tourney Appearance)

Given the talent on the roster, Michigan’s failure to make the tournament this past season was perhaps the most disappointing showing of any team in the conference last year outside of Ohio State. With former All-American Hunter Dickinson’s transfer to Kansas, and Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard’s no-brainer decisions to remain in the NBA Draft, Michigan will lose its top-three scorers and is essentially back to square one in Juwan Howard’s upcoming fifth season.

After an extremely disappointing kick off to the portal season with Caleb Love originally committing, but then unable to transfer his credits from North Carolina and going to Arizona instead, Michigan got its first good news of the summer with the commitment of former Tennessee power forward Olivier Nkamhoua (10.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.0 APG). Nkamhoua paired with center Tarris Reed Jr, will provide Michigan with one of the better front-court defensive pairings in the conference, and instantly raises the floor for Michigan.

The ceiling will be dependent on how big of a leap Dug McDaniel (8.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 3.0 RPG) can make in his sophomore season, and the viability of two-time transferee Nimari Burnett (5.6 PPG & 2.0 RPG in 14.7 MPG for Alabama last season) as a starter on the wing. The small forward spot is also up for grabs and after borderline redshirting last season (only nine games played in which he averaged 6.6 MPG), it will be interesting to see Yousef Khayat’s development given his NBA size/length and potential skill set. Seton Hall transferee Tray Jackson (6.5 PPG & 2.2 RPG in 14.6 MPG) offers some athletic upside, and should also see some time at the power forward spot and as a backup five. McDaniel/Reed/Nkamhoua are a solid trio that should have Michigan on the bubble this season, but getting production at the two and three spots and off the bench will be crucial to avoid missing back-to-back tournaments.

*Rumors are swirling that Antonio Reeves (14.4 PPG, 39.8% from deep on 5.9 3FGA) is possibly departing Kentucky’s roster and intends to take classes this summer at Illinois State (although there has been some chatter that NCAA bylaws may not allow him to transfer anywhere but from UK) in order to become a grad transfer. Michigan is thought to have the early inside track if this does occur and his addition would spring the roster into the next tier with a case to be made that their starting five would be as competitive as most of the teams in Tier 2. They have also reached out to Rutgers transfer Paul Mulcahy (as have multiple other schools), and his decision remains up in the air.

9. Rutgers

2022-23 (19-15, 10-10, 9th Big Ten, No Tourney Appearance)

Following the season ending injury to Mawot Mag in their matchup against Michigan State at Madison Square Garden, Rutgers sputtered down the stretch and failed to make the NCAA Tournament by a hair. The offseason hasn’t been much kinder to the Scarlet Knights, with both Cam Spencer (13.2 PPG-43.4% 3FG) and Paul Mulcahy (8.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.6 RPG) choosing to enter the transfer portal instead of returning to Piscataway. With Caleb McConnell’s graduation, Rutgers will lose its best perimeter defender, and three of its top-five scorers on a team that finished 151st in Kenpom’s offensive efficiency, sixth in defensive efficiency, and 39th overall.

Cliff Omoruyi (13.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.1 BPG) returns to anchor the paint, and has a chance to make his case as the second best big man in the conference following Trayce Jackson-Davis' and Hunter Dickinson’s departures from the Big Ten, but it may be the worst roster he will have played on in his four years. The Scarlet Knights added 5-foot-11 Noah Fernandes (13.4 PPG & 4.1 APG to 2.2 TOV, 45.2% from deep on 3.8 3FGA) to the roster from UMass and Derek Simpson (7.1 PPG) looks capable of taking another step forward as he enters his upperclassmen years, and 6-foot-7 top-25 incoming freshman Gavin Griffiths should also see some early tick.

Steve Pikiell will have his work cut out for him to make the tournament with their current roster shape and ensure he can hold onto the early commitment of top-five 2024 wing Ace Bailey. Hard times for a program that looked to be ascending into the middle tier of the conference, but if anyone can use the recent adversity to double down on their identity as one of the toughest teams in the country, it's Pikiell.

10. Northwestern

2022-23 (22-12, 12-8, T2nd in Big Ten, 7 seed RD32 exit to UCLA)

In a crowded middle tier of last year’s Big Ten, Northwestern showed well, particularly on the road where the Wildcats beat Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Rutgers to get out of the basement of the conference for the first time since 2016-2017. With Boo Buie’s return it looked like Northwestern would be poised to run back the bulk of its roster and hold top-half conference aspirations again, but Chase Audige’s surprise departure to the professional ranks left a gaping hole in the roster that wildly swung expectations. Audige (14.1 PPG) was one of the best defenders in the conference and despite his suspect shot selection, eased the offensive burden from Buie, making enough big shots to offset his inefficient nights.

Although NU grabbed a trio of lower major players from the portal, it feels like Buie would have to have an All-American type season for the Wildcats to find themselves in the top-half of the conference this upcoming season. Chris Collins has coached Northwestern for 10 years and finished higher than 10th in just two of those seasons. It feels like a return to the norm in Evanston is more likely than not in 2023-2024.

11. Iowa

2022-23 (19-14, 11-9, T5th Big Ten, 8 seed RD64 exit)

Kris Murray declared for the NBA Draft and with the departure of his 20.2 points per game and Filip Rebraca’s graduation, Iowa lost its top two scorers. The system should still produce a top 10-15 offense, but after going from Luka Garza to Keegan Murray to Kris Murray, head coach Fran McCaffrey may not have a clear-cut focal point of his offense after four-straight years of having one of the best scorers in the country.

Payton Sandfort (10.3 PPG-34.3% from deep) is the likely next man up and will get a chance to play with his brother, incoming 6-foot-7 freshman Pryce Sandfort (95th nationally). Tony Perkins (12.3 PPG, 2.8 APG, 4.1 RPG) returns for his senior season and Iowa added a pair of form-fitting frontc-ourt players in Even Brauns (Belmont-7.0 PPG) and Ben Krikke (Valparaiso-19.4 PPG) but the roster feels tournament bid vulnerable for the first since 2017-2018.

12. Penn State

2022-23 (23-10, 10-10, 9th Big Ten, 10 seed RD32 exit to Texas)

Penn State was perhaps the most fun team to watch in the Big Ten last year, but Jalen Pickett, Cam Wynter, and Andrew Funk have now all graduated, while head coach Micah Shrewsberry cashed in on an excellent season and smartly took the vacant Notre Dame job. Seth Lundy is also headed to the pros, and its a complete roster reset for former VCU head coach Mike Rhoades.

Coming off back-to-back tournament appearances, Rhoades was able to bring his senior point guard Ace Baldwin (12.7 PPG, 5.8 APG-34.2% from deep) with him, and in a matter of a few months, has completely revamped the roster by snagging players looking for larger roles from Miami, North Carolina, Lafayette, Georgetown, Temple, and VCU. The 6-foot-7 Zach Hicks (9.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 35.6% from deep on 7 3FGA) from Temple is perhaps the most intriguing pickup besides Baldwin, but it will be interesting to see what the roster rounds into when November rolls around.

From 2020-2021 through the present Rhoades’ strung together three seasons in a row with a top-15 defense, but teams that have attempted to apply full court pressure (Brad Underwood at Illinois his first couple of years comes to mind), have quickly realized it’s difficult to do at the Power Six level. It’s a new dawn for the Nittany Lions and why they likely will be hovering in the basement, Baldwin should be fun to watch and we will get a chance to see what kind of identity Rhoades attempts to create as he enters the Big Ten.

13. Nebraska

2022-23 (16-16, 9-11, 11th Big Ten)

The most competitive team that Fred Hoiberg has had since taking the job in Lincoln, Nebraska proved pesky with wins over Creighton, Iowa twice, Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland. The flamethrower Kesei Tominaga (13.1 PPG-40% from deep on 5.2 3FGA) is back and Nebraska snagged four portal players, the best of whom is likely redshirt senior power forward Rienk Mast from Bradley (13.8 PPG & 8 RPG) or Iowa transfer Ahron Ulis, but fifth-year seniors Sam Griesel (12 PPG, 3.8 APG, 5.8 RPG) and Derrick Walker (13.6 PPG & 7.1 RPG) depart, and with it, two of Nebraska’s top-three scorers. It feels like a return to the cellar for the Cornhuskers.

14. Minnesota

2022-23 (9-22, 2-17, 14th Big Ten)

With wins over Rutgers and Nebraska at home last season, Ben Johnson has been able to muster just six total conference wins in his two years at the helm for Minnesota. Dawson Garcia (15.3 PPG & 6.7 RPG) and Pharrell Payne (8.2 PPG & 5.2 RPG) will make a competent front-court, but the guard woes are likely to continue for the Gophers with the departure of Ta’Lon Cooper (9.8 PPG) unless Pepperdine transfer Mike Mitchell (11.4 PPG, 5 APG, 44% from deep on 5.4 3FGA) hits the ground running. Cameron Christie (brother of former MSU five-star Max Christie) is the lone incoming freshmen recruit (149th nationally), and it feels like Johnson’s tenure is on slippery footing if he can’t find a way to get Minnesota out of the perpetual bottom of the barrel conference finish.

Editor's Note: David Klein is dual-publishing this article on Spartans Illustrated and Spartan Hoops.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Discuss this article in our premium forums by clicking here.

You can also follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.

For video content, including our Red Cedar Radar podcast, find us on YouTube and consider subscribing.