ESPN FPI projects the remaining games on Penn State Football's schedule
Penn State is now 3-0 on the season after a 30-13 win over the Illinois Fighting Illini to open up conference play this season. Now, the Nittany Lions turn their attention to the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday night in Penn State's annual WhiteOut game. But before that, let's look at the updated FPI projections from ESPN for the remaining games on the Nittany Lions schedule.
Thanks to the ESPN Football Power Index, there is now an analytical way to predict the winner of each college football game in the entire nation. For those unfamiliar with the FPI, you can read the definition of the index here.
Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team's FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI's game-level and season-level projections.
In the chart below, you can see the likelihood of Penn State Football winning each of the reaming games on the 2023 football schedule.
| GAME | LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY | CHANGE SINCE LAST WEEK | PROJECTED RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
|
September 23rd vs. Iowa |
86.8% |
+0.2% |
4-0 (2-0) |
|
September 30th vs. Northwestern |
92.1% |
+2.0% |
5-0 (3-0) |
|
October 14th vs. UMass |
99.0% |
0% |
6-0 (3-0) |
|
October 21st @ Ohio State |
29.3% |
-4% |
6-1 (3-1) |
|
October 28th vs. Indiana |
94.3% |
+0.2% |
7-1 (4-1) |
|
November 4th @ Maryland |
82.9% |
-0.5% |
8-1 (5-1) |
|
November 11th vs. Michigan |
68.8% |
+3.5% |
9-1 (6-1) |
|
November 18th vs. Rutgers |
90.6% |
-1.0% |
10-1 (7-1) |
|
November 25th @ Michigan State |
87.8% |
+5.5% |
11-1 (8-1) |
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