ESPN FPI projects the remaining games on Penn State Football's schedule
The Penn State Nittany Lions are now 4-0 on the season after a dominating 31-0 victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday evening in front of a sold-out White Out crowd. The Nittany Lions have been one of the best teams in college football throughout the first four weeks and are looking like a legitimate contender for the Big Ten Championship and potentially a contender for the College Football Playoffs.
But what does ESPN's FPI think of the Nittany Lions?
Overall, the FPI values the Nittany Lions quite highly, as the index ranks Penn State as the fourth-best team in the country after four weeks only behind Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Alabama.
ESPN's FPI currently projects Penn State to have a 32.4% chance to win the Big Ten East, a 27.6% chance to win the Big Ten, a 34% chance to make the College Football Playoffs, and a 17.6% chance to make the national championship game. The Nittany Lions also have the 10th-best strength of record according to the power index, as well as the second-best "game control" in college football only behind Washington.
In the chart below, you can see the likelihood of Penn State Football winning each of the remaining games on the 2023 football schedule.
| GAME | LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY | CHANGE SINCE LAST WEEK | PROJ. RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sep. 30 vs. Northwestern |
93.4% |
+2.2% |
5-0 (3-0) |
|
Oct. 14 vs. UMass |
99.0% |
0% |
6-0 (3-0) |
|
Oct. 21 @ Ohio State |
34.5% |
+5.2% |
6-1 (3-1) |
|
Oct. 28 vs. Indiana |
96.5% |
+2.2% |
7-1 (4-1) |
|
Nov. 4 @ Maryland |
80.9% |
-2.0% |
8-1 (5-1) |
|
Nov. 11th vs. Michigan |
69.6% |
+0.8% |
9-1 (6-1) |
|
Nov. 18th vs. Rutgers |
93.3% |
+2.7% |
10-1 (7-1) |
|
Nov. 25th @ Michigan State |
87.8% |
+4.3% |
11-1 (8-1) |
WHAT IS THE ESPN FPI?
From ESPN's An inside look at College FPI
"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams."
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