Penn State vs. Iowa: Previewing the Iowa Hawkeyes
Penn State is off to a 3-0 start this season after defeating the Illinois Fighting Illini this past weekend 30-13. Now, the Nittany Lions will be welcoming the Big Ten West's Iowa Hawkeyes to Beaver Stadium on Saturday night in front of what should be a White Out crowd of over 107,000.
Below, Happy Valley Insider goes over what to know about the Iowa Hawkeyes.
OVERVIEW
The Hawkeyes enter this week at 3-0 on the season and are coming off their best effort of the season, a 41-10 win over Western Michigan. In that game, the Hawkeyes had a season-high 387 yards; for comparison, in their first two games of the season, they recorded 284 yards against Utah State and 235 yards against Iowa State. We'll get more into the Hawkeyes offense shortly.
On the defensive side of the ball, this remains a strong Iowa defense that has gotten better each week so far this season. The Hawkeyes have allowed 37 total points through three games this season and haven't allowed more than 14 points in their three games this season.
That being said, the level of opponent for the Hawkeyes is being turned up from a 2 to a 10 this weekend when they make the trip to Happy Valley.
OFFENSE
Despite bringing in Cade McNamara this offseason to be their starting quarterback, this is an Iowa offense that is still very much an Iowa offense. They're not overly explosive, their run game for the season has been solid but not great, and their passing game isn't going to put fear into anyone.
As previously announced, Cade McNamara is now the starting quarterback for the Hawkeyes, and the early results have been a mixed bag. He's a game-manager quarterback at heart, something he's done well, albeit with strong Michigan teams, leading the Wolverines and Hawkeyes to a combined 20-4 record over his 24 career games.
McNamara has completed 38-of-70 passing attempts for 417 yards and four touchdowns this season. In the process, he's thrown three interceptions as well. With McNamara under center, the Hawkeyes won't be trying to push the ball down the field too much, especially against this Penn State secondary. Overall, 36 of McNamara's attempts this season have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Out of those 36 attempts, he's completed 28, a 77% completion percentage. However, on deep shots this season, McNamara is just 10-for-28, a 35.7% completion percentage. The Nittany Lions' linebackers this week will be tested quite a bit against the passing attack for the Hawkeyes, as Iowa loves to throw into the middle of the field. Unfortunately for Iowa, Penn State has an athletic linebacker room, especially with Curtis Jacobs and Abdul Carter both out there.
For Penn State's defense, the key on Saturday will be keeping those short and intermediate passing attempts to just those. Keep Iowa's receivers and tight ends from picking up crucial yards after the catch.
Beyond McNamara, it's hard to see how Iowa will move the ball consistently on Saturday.
The Hawkeyes are set to be down running backs Kaleb Johnson, Jaziun Patterson, and tight end Luke Lachey. The three combined for 345 of Iowa's 906 yards from scrimmage this fall, roughly 38% of the Hawkeyes total offense this season.
Leshon Williams will get the nod at running back as the starting tailback. He's coming off a strong game against Western Michigan, rushing for 145 carries across 12 attempts. It was by far Williams' best game of his career; his previous career high was 63 yards and 6.3 yards per carry. He's been a solid but not outstanding rusher for his career, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. He will be worth paying attention to out of the backfield, as in the passing game, with 16 career receptions for 119 yards.
Backing up Williams will be true freshmen Kmari Moulton and Terrell Washington Jr. Together, the two have 14 carries for 81 yards this season.
Iowa's run blocking has been solid this season and should be a good test for this Penn State front seven. Notably, it's worth noting that the Hawkeyes' tailbacks haven't been great after contact this year, averaging just 2.58 yards after contact as a team, but have forced 19 missed tackles this season, including seven by Leshon Williams.
Most of the Hawkeyes' success this season has come rushing toward the left side of their offensive line; expect them to focus heavily on that side of the line on Saturday.
Going back to the offensive line, the Hawkeyes' have been good in their pass protection this season, allowing just one sack through three games. That being said, they have been allowing about seven quarterback pressures per game, opposing pass rushers just not being able to get home on the quarterback, with Cade McNamara only taking one quarterback hit this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Of course, Iowa's offensive line has not nearly faced any sort of true dominant pass rush like they will this weekend against Penn State. Through three games this season, Penn State has gotten a ridiculous 70 total quarterback pressures, an average of 23 per game. They also have 45 quarterback hurries and 12 sacks.
In the passing attack, McNamara's top target will be a name Penn State fans are familiar with and one that broke the Nittany Lions' hearts a few years ago: tight end Erick All. All followed McNamara to Iowa City this offseason, and has seven receptions for 81 yards and one touchdown this season.
Wide receivers Nico Ragaini, Seth Anderson, and Diante Vines are also names to know as well. Ragaini has five receptions for 48 yards, Anderson four for 68, and Vines three for 14. On paper, the only player that really opens one's eyes is Erick All. Beyond that, the Hawkeyes again don't have anyone that really instills fear into an opposing defense.
DEFENSE
If Iowa is going to keep this game close on Saturday, it's going to be because of their defense. Phil Parker's defense has looked great so far this season, allowing just 12.3 points and 286 yards per game this season.
That being said, two of their three opponents are among the bottom 20 offenses in the country, and Utah State is averaging 37.7 points per game, having their average heavily inflated by a 78-28 win over FCS Idaho State. In their week three matchup against Air Force, the Aggies totaled just 21 points and 302 total yards. It's safe to say that the Iowa defense hasn't been truly tested just yet this season.
On paper, the Hawkeyes defense is strong against the run and the pass. Opposing offenses are averaging just 179 passing yards and 106 rushing yards this season. It's a defense that historically can slow down the most explosive offenses. Last season, they kept Ohio State to 360 yards and Michigan to 327 yards. While they haven't been tested this season, this is an Iowa defense that is going to slow down Penn State and give the Nittany Lions troubles at times.
It's a talented defense, and defensive coordinator Phil Parker is outstanding and what he does. That being said, with it being a major question mark of how Iowa's offense is going to move the ball, the Hawkeyes defense on Saturday may just fall victim to just being on the field too much as the game progresses. If Penn State can get short field a time or two on Saturday, a close 17-13 game could quickly turn into a 31-13 game.
The Hawkeyes' front seven this year has been solid, totaling 39 total pressures on the season, but haven't been able to get to the quarterback. The Hawkeyes have just three sacks through three games. Edge rusher Joe Evans is their most dangerous rusher on paper, with 12 pressures and seven quarterback hurries this season.
Beyond Evans, the Hawkeyes haven't had too many standout pass rushers this season; defensive linemen Aaron Graves and Logan Lee have been solid but nothing more.
A smart and fundamentally sound defense, Iowa's defense should be able to give Penn State's rushing attack some trouble on Saturday, but expect the Nittany Lions to also break a big a few bigger runs throughout the evening. If Nicholas Singleton or Kaytron Allen can get into the open field, they have the athleticism to make the Hawkeyes play.
In the secondary, the Hawkeyes have two interceptions this season and a handful of additional pass breakups. Notably, this could be a matchup on Saturday that benefits Penn State's tight ends rooms. The Hawkeyes linebackers this season have been targeted 19 times this season, allowing 15 receptions on the season for 138 yards. It could end up being a strong day for Tyler Warren, Theo Johnson, and Khalil Dinkins.
It does feel worth noting that starting safety Cooper DeJean has been solid this season with 19 tackles and half a tackle for a loss but has also done it quietly. He's bound to have a breakout game this season at some point; Penn State will have to hope that it's just not this week.
Again, this Iowa defense is going to slow down Penn State at times and will give the Nittany Lions offense some trouble. However, if the Hawkeyes offense struggles to move the ball as expected, this Iowa defense could get gassed as the game goes on leading to Penn State getting some big plays in the second half to give themselves a bit more of a comfortable lead.
SPECIAL TEAMS
On special teams, the Hawkeyes are well-equipped. Kicker Drew Stevens is 33-for-33 in extra points and 20-for-23 in field goal attempts in his career. For his career, he's perfect within 40 yards (14-for-14) and has the leg to kick from beyond 50 yards, a career 6-for-9. However, he missed a 41-yard field goal against Western Michigan last week.
The Hawkeyes also have an elite Tory Taylor punter, averaging 46.1 yards per punt this season. For his career, Taylor has 218 career punts for an average of 45.5 yards. From a milestone standpoint, Taylor should cross the 10,000 total punting yards mark on Saturday for his career. Put that into perspective; that's over five and a half miles of yardage.
In the return game, Kaden Wetjen has averaged 25.8 yards per kickoff return this season, while Cooper DeJean will be the punt returner. He's averaging 9.4 yards per punt this season.
Early Verdict
Our early verdict is that this is a game that we don't expect to be particularly close, at least by the end. A similar game to the Nittany Lions' win over Illinois wouldn't be surprising. The Penn State offense may have some tough series throughout the evening but should also get their fair share of big plays. If they can take advantage of any Iowa turnovers or short-field positioning, it could get into blowout territory real quickly. Iowa's lone hope in this game is going to be that their rushing attack is dominant and, therefore, can control the clock.
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