What does ESPN's FPI project for Penn State following their 5-0 start?
The Penn State Nittany Lions are now 5-0 on the season after using a big second half to down the Northwestern Wildcats 41-13 this past Saturday in Evanston. The Nittany Lions have four Power Five wins in their first five games of the season and enter their bye week as the No. 6 team in the nation according to both the AP and Coaches Polls.
Despite a slow start against a bad Northwestern team, the Nittany Lions remain to look like one of the best teams in all of college football and a legitimate contender for the Big Ten championship and the College Football Playoffs.
But what does ESPN's FPI think of the Nittany Lions?
Entering week six of the season, Penn State is ranked as the fifth-best team in the country according to ESPN's FPI. A one-spot drop from last week's No. 4 ranking. The only teams ahead of the Nittany Lions are Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Texas. Oregon, Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State round out the top 10.
ESPN's FPI currently projects Penn State to have a 30.3% chance to win the Big Ten East, a 25.7% chance to win the Big Ten, a 31.6% chance to make the College Football Playoffs, and a 16% chance to make the national championship game.
Notably, the Nittany Lions also have the 10th-best strength of record according to ESPN's FPI. They have the 16th hardest schedule the rest of the way according to the power index as well after coming out of their bye week. That strength of schedule is heavily helped by the Nittany Lions' remaining matchups against Ohio State, Maryland, and Michigan. While the Buckeyes and Wolverines are both ranked inside the top 10 in ESPN's FPI, Maryland is ranked 25.
In the chart below, you can see the likelihood of Penn State Football winning each of the remaining games on the 2023 football schedule.
| GAME | LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY | CHANGE SINCE LAST WEEK | PROJ. RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Oct. 14 vs. UMass |
99.0% |
0% |
6-0 (3-0) |
|
Oct. 21 @ Ohio State |
35.5% |
+1.0% |
6-1 (3-1) |
|
Oct. 28 vs. Indiana |
97.1% |
+0.6% |
7-1 (4-1) |
|
Nov. 4 @ Maryland |
78.2% |
-2.7% |
8-1 (5-1) |
|
Nov. 11th vs. Michigan |
62.8% |
+0.1% |
9-1 (6-1) |
|
Nov. 18th vs. Rutgers |
93.0% |
-0.3% |
10-1 (7-1) |
|
Nov. 25th @ Michigan State |
92.5% |
+4.7% |
11-1 (8-1) |
WHAT IS THE ESPN FPI?
From ESPN's An inside look at College FPI
"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams."
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