What does ESPN's FPI project for Penn State following their bye week
The Penn State Nittany Lions are officially off their bye week and are preparing for the UMass Minutemen on Saturday afternoon. The Nittany Lions enter week seven with a 5-0 record with four wins over Power Five programs, one of the best resumes in all of college football.
This week, Penn State is a heavy favorite over UMass, a favorite of nearly 40-points. It should serve as a good warm up game for the Nittany Lions ahead of their October 21 showdown with the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus.
But how does ESPN's FPI view as Penn State's chances the rest of the way?
In the chart below, you can see the likelihood of Penn State Football winning each of the remaining games on the 2023 football schedule.
| GAME | LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORY | CHANGE SINCE LAST WEEK | PROJ. RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Oct. 14 vs. UMass |
99.0% |
0% |
6-0 (3-0) |
|
Oct. 21 @ Ohio State |
34.4% |
-1.1% |
6-1 (3-1) |
|
Oct. 28 vs. Indiana |
97.1% |
+0.0% |
7-1 (4-1) |
|
Nov. 4 @ Maryland |
77.2% |
-1.2% |
8-1 (5-1) |
|
Nov. 11th vs. Michigan |
56.1% |
-6.7% |
9-1 (6-1) |
|
Nov. 18th vs. Rutgers |
92.7% |
-0.3% |
10-1 (7-1) |
|
Nov. 25th @ Michigan State |
92.2% |
-0.3% |
11-1 (8-1) |
WHAT IS THE ESPN FPI?
From ESPN's An inside look at College FPI
"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams."
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