Nate Bauer - Blue White Illustrated Editor (2017 Record: 7-0)

I have a dilemma on my hands this week.

Before the start of the 2017 season, I broke free from my tradition of making a conservative preseason record prediction of the previous few years, instead highlighting the number of outstanding areas from which this Penn State football team is built to succeed this year. Not as though it was something unbelievably bold to do, selecting the Nittany Lions to go 11-1 with nearly every piece returning from a Big Ten Championship-winning 2016 season, but I just saw all of the ingredients in place to either be competitive or have an advantage in every game on the schedule.

The one game, however, that would put this team at a competitive disadvantage in my mind was on the road against an Ohio State team coming off its own remarkably successful 2016 season. Fast forward through August, September and most of October, and here we are with much of those preconceptions having fulfilled themselves to this point.

Penn State has steadily taken care of its business, beating its nonconference opponents without much fanfare, surviving a grueling road game at feisty Iowa with a walk-off win, and gradually working its way to last weekend's season high-point with a 42-13 destruction of Michigan.

Ohio State, meanwhile, suffered a week two loss at home against Oklahoma that was closer, for more of the game (the Buckeyes leading 13-10 until the 2-minute mark in the third quarter), than most people are probably acknowledging. The Buckeyes have since steadily unleashed their own steamrolling effect, running through Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska with ease.

Hardly a gamut of top contenders for either of these programs, the point is that something will give for one of them this weekend in Columbus. And though my preseason pick was to give Ohio State the advantage here, I'm bucking that in favor of the Nittany Lions for the road upset for a few reasons.

The first is that I genuinely believe Saquon Barkley to be a generational talent at Penn State, and the capability of those players ultimately proving to be the difference makers - through their own actions or the vulnerabilities they create in opponents' attempts to stop them - is an important factor to keep in mind against two otherwise seemingly evenly matched teams. The second is that, in many ways, this Penn State team has been tested and has proven itself already on the road this season, and has proven itself against the Buckeyes as well.

Unlike past iterations of this game in which the Nittany Lions were the lesser team needing to play their game of the season while hoping for some Ohio State lethargy, this team is capable of winning in a multitude of ways. Offense, defense, and special teams, all dangerous and working complementary to each other, creates a true opportunity to compete and succeed against the conference's other undeniably

strong program this season.

Taking advantage of that preparation, experience, and success, a toss-up, high-scoring game goes to the Nittany Lions this time.

Penn State 31

Ohio State 28

Tim Owen - Blue White Illustrated Assistant Editor (2017 Record: 7-0)

You’ve really got to buck the trends here in order to pick Penn State, but that’s exactly what I’m about to do. It’s been almost 40 years since the Nittany Lions last beat the Buckeyes twice in a row. All-time, Ohio State leads the series 18-14 and holds an 11-7 advantage when playing in Columbus. Better yet, when the Bucks wear alternate uniforms – as they will Saturday afternoon – they’ve won 14 of 18 games over the past eight seasons. Add in Urban Meyer’s 17-9 record against top-15 opponents over the past 10 years, and unsurprisingly history goes against PSU here.

Who cares.

There have been few teams in Penn State’s past that is built like this one, and none that I’ve seen in my decade or two of closely following the program. The glaring difference is Saquon Barkley – and it's not only his superior running ability, blocking technique and receiving skills. It’s not even the decoy dilemma that his mere presence creates for an opposing defense, although all of those things help immensely.

What’s bigger, a charge that is more powerful, is the overall impact that he has on his team. Sitting at 7-0, having lost just one of their last 17 games, the Nittany Lions have collective national championship dreams. Having just missed out on the playoffs last year they got just enough of a taste to know they want more – and they want it at the expense of the team that kept them out of it last year. Galvanizing it all is Barkley’s race toward the Heisman, and although no one on the team publicly acknowledges it, the majority of them want that award too. It might go to an individual, but winning keeps their running back at the forefront. With a personality like Barkley’s, who just so happens to average 146.5 yards per game against OSU, it’s one more melding point for this team, strengthening its resolve.

In the preseason, I picked PSU to finish with a 9-3 record. That was before I realized the intrinsic forces that are in play with this team. It’s bigger than stats and yards, and historical trends no longer define it. But, if you want another look at the numbers, here are some that are more current and go in PSU’s favor:

Highlight Meyer's history of home cooking, his success after bye weeks or his winning record against basically every team in the country – that's all true. What's also true, however, is that his teams have struggled in its last two games against top-5 opponents, being outscored 62-16. Since he's been at Ohio State, too, Meyer is only one game above .500 against teams ranked among top 15. Not exactly world-dominating numbers.

I’m also a believer that Meyer’s success at a program is inversely related to his length of tenure. He wins immediately, yes, but can he sustain it once he’s fully operating with his recruits four or five years down the road? That didn’t happen last year, as OSU was wrongfully granted a playoff spot over PSU and got shutout by Clemson. I have a feeling this will be another proof to the theory. The lucky number for Clemson and Oklahoma in Meyer’s two most recent losses was 31. I'm going with it here, too.

Penn State 31

Ohio State 27

Ryan Snyder - Blue White Illustrated Recruiting Analyst (2017 Record: 7-0)

I’ll start out by saying that I’ve been picking Ohio State to win this game since the summer. Last year, the Buckeyes out-played the Lions for the majority of that game, and although Penn State came out on top, there were a lot of little things that Ohio State could’ve done to put that game out of reach. Up until just a few weeks ago, I was still pretty confident that this would be Penn State’s first loss of the 2017 season. Now, I’m not so sure.

By the end of the season, I think we’re going to look back and see that Michigan wasn’t that good this year, so I don’t want to put too much stock into last weekend’s win. But if there is one thing that I can’t overlook, it’s Joe Moorhead. Right now, Penn State has its best X’s and O’s coach in school history. He sees the game in ways that all of us only wish we could. The mismatches that he finds, and most importantly, exploits at the right time, are a major reason why the Nittany Lions are in the position they’re in.

I also went back and looked at a stat that’s getting a lot of play this week: Urban Meyer off a bye week. Make no mistake, it’s an impressive stat. His team’s are 20-1 off a bye week throughout his career. The only loss came in his first season at Bowling Green, where Meyer was ultimately beaten by Ben Roethlisberger and Miami (Ohio).

But if you dig deeper, you’ll learn that his teams have only played two games off a bye against a team that’s as highly-ranked as this year’s Penn State squad. The first was a neutral site game against Georgia in 2005. In his first season at Florida, the Gators squeaked out a 14-10 win over a Georgia squad that was ranked fourth at the time, but ultimately finished 10-3. Four years later, in 2009, Florida then went to LSU to beat a Tiger squad that was also ranked fourth in the nation, but ultimately finished 9-4. Both were great wins, but I also believe these opportunities even out with time.

This year’s Penn State squad is going to finish with a better record than both of those previous opponents. They also have arguably the best player in school history in RB Saquon Barkley. I don’t expect the Heisman hopeful to rush for 185 yards like he did two years ago at the shoe, but Barkley is impossible to completely stop. I expect him to have a solid performance behind a Penn State offensive line that showed a lot last weekend against the Wolverines. Again, Michigan isn't that good, but its defensive front is.

Penn State’s defense also has a lot to prove. Ohio State’s offensive front is stacked with future NFL prospects, so it may be tough to get pressure on QB J.T. Barrett, but you know Brent Pry is going to play aggressive from the start. That’s why I believe that Jason Cabinda, Manny Bowen and Koa Farmer are the key to this game. Their pass coverage will have to be at its best Saturday.

I think Penn State’s defense and Ohio State’s offense will prove similar. Both squads will win individual battles throughout the day. It's on the other side of the ball, where Penn State has its best offensive coach and its best offensive player in school history, that will prove the difference.

Penn State 28

Ohio State 24