Column: Penn State's offensive maturation will be put to test against MSU D

Win or lose for Penn State at Michigan State Saturday afternoon, we will likely still be talking about offensive “lulls” at this time next week.

Why?

Against teams that aren’t Wisconsin, Michigan State stops the run. The Spartans limit yardage on first and second downs to force frequent third-down situations. And on those third downs, the Spartans sometimes bring blitz packages to disrupt the quarterback, though at a more conservative pace than does Michigan.

In other words, the Spartans are again solid defensively.

From a pure numbers perspective, the Spartans don’t jump out as a dominant defensive group this season. At 21.0 points per game allowed, they rank No. 33 heading into Saturday afternoon’s matchup. Their total defense is 22nd at 314.3 yards per game. Rushing defense checks in at No. 27 (117.7 ypg), passing yards allowed is 35th (196.6 ypg), passing efficiency defense is 51st (126.16), and first downs allowed is tied for 32nd (127).

But a more analytical examination, in this case, DFEI ratings (Fremeau Efficiency Index), shows that the Spartans are among the nation’s best on the defensive side of the ball. Penn State is, too, of course, holding the 10th-place spot behind Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Wisconsin, Auburn, Utah, Iowa, Alabama, and Cincinnati.

Described as representing “the per-possession scoring advantage a team’s defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense,” the data is collected and “calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games.”

And there, lurking at No. 13 is Michigan State.

Yes, in the three prior games to the Spartans’ upcoming matchup with Penn State, they surrendered 31 points in a win against Indiana, followed by a 34-10 loss at Ohio State and a 38-0 thrashing at Wisconsin. Two of the nation’s most vaunted offenses, however, were not without their own hiccups and advantages gained by Michigan State’s offensive deficiencies.

Against Ohio State, the Spartans limited the Buckeye offense to just 16 yards on their first 16 plays in the first quarter, while elusive quarterback Justin Fields was sacked three times in the course of the game. In what might be an instructive point to consider for a Penn State team that has succeeded thanks to its explosiveness this season, the Buckeyes’ first three touchdowns all were the result of plays of 60, 21, and 67 yards, respectively, but none were behind the defense in the manner Penn State produced Saturday against Michigan.

Equally notable, Michigan State reduced Heisman-hopeful running back Jonathan Taylor to 80 yards on the ground on his 26 carries, leaving the heavy lifting to quarterback Jack Coan. Remaining stout defensively, not all that unlike what Iowa likes to do in forcing opponents to earn its yards underneath, Wisconsin took advantage of a hapless Michigan State offense but held just a 17-0 advantage at the half. Once the game was out of hand, then, a Brian Lewerke interception went the other way for a pick-six, and receiver Kendric Pryor took an end-around 66 yards to the house to build on the Badgers’ lead.

For Penn State’s explosive-minded offense, it should pose an interesting test, as James Franklin alluded to without naming it specifically at his press conference earlier this week.

Asked about generating explosive plays against teams that generally don’t allow them, and how Penn State can take what’s given to it, Franklin offered that the plan of attack for opposing defenses has changed through the years.

“After that Big Ten Championship year, we saw a drastic change and people said we're not giving up the big play. We're going to keep everything in front of us and not allow you to be one of the more explosive teams in the country,” Franklin said. “With that, that creates other opportunities. But then you have to have the maturity offensively to be able to take advantage of what the defense gives and really, in a lot of ways, morph your philosophy during the game once you see how they are playing; and the players embrace that style of play that you have to play, as well.”

Buried during a long and detailed press conference with multiple questions about Penn State’s offense, Franklin’s answer is likely describing one of the keys to Saturday afternoon’s game for the Nittany Lions in East Lansing.

And a look at Franklin’s pre-game assessments of the Hawkeye and Spartan defenses should suggest as much.

Iowa: “They’re a four-down bench front, Mainly a two-high team with variations of one-high, whether it’s cover three or fire zone pressures.”

Michigan State: “They are a four-down front. They will play a combination of different two-high coverages, quarters, quarter-quarter half and Cover 2, and then a mix of one high which is some of their pressure looks, whether it's man or fire zone, 33-type stuff.”

Against an Iowa defense playing with different personnel but a similar philosophy, the Hawkeyes presently ranked No. 7 defensively in the DFEI to Michigan State’s No. 13, the Nittany Lions weren’t as comfortable playing that style of game, especially from the onset.

Requiring patience and maturity, neither of which likely comes instinctively at this point in the careers of a first-year starter at quarterback in Sean Clifford and his sophomore playmakers like K.J. Hamler, Jahan Dotson, Pat Freiermuth, Ricky Slade, and Journey Brown, as well as freshman backs Noah Cain and Devyn Ford, Penn State will need to adapt from its typical identity to find its offensive success.

“When you realize how a team is playing you, either that opponent or as the season goes on, when people see the things that have been successful, we have to be comfortable as play callers and as players to be able to hit those underneath throws and we've got to hit them more consistently, third down,” Franklin said. “And the funny thing is, that's where the explosive plays will come, because the better we can throw accurately underneath, and throw the ball in a way that he can advance the ball, we have guys that are athletic enough, they are going to break a tackle and make people miss.

“And also, if you're going to play that style of secondary and play soft, that creates more opportunities for explosive runs, as well.”

The Spartans have demonstrated the point repeatedly this season, and should act as the prep-work Penn State might need to land in East Lansing with the mindset that will be necessary to win.

“It’s the third down and 8, and the tight end is wide open and those you've got to hit 100 percent of the gimmies,” Franklin said. “The ones that are in tight coverage, again, they are on scholarship, too, and we have got to fight and find a way to win those battles. But the ones that are gimmies where we have worked like heck to protect and get a guy open, we've got to hit them, and I don't want that to come off the wrong way. I couldn't be more pleased with Sean [Clifford], but we've got to hit a higher rate of those.

“It's just like in the run game, we've got to consistently make the one free hitter, the safety or whoever it may be, we have to make that guy miss. Or it's the guy who is being blocked but at the last minute falls off the block to make the tackle. We have to sustain that block a half-second longer to allow us to spurt through there.”

The good news for Penn State in this scenario is that it has already experienced, and come away with a win against, an opponent similar to what it will face Saturday afternoon.

“We play we play a very, very tough schedule in general, at least in my opinion,” Clifford told reporters this week. “Each week, we're going to get a lot of people's best games. And we play a lot of the best defenses in the country, Michigan State being one of them. So we obviously can't take any game lightly. This is a 1-0 mentality every week. Michigan State's a good football team.”