Preview / Predicting Penn State Wrestling in the 2024 Big Ten Tournament
March is a special month for wrestling fans. It is full of big tournaments, big upsets, and big stakes. As much as dual meets matter (they do, despite how some may feel), ultimately, what fans remember most while looking back on a season is the three days of the National Tournament.
But in order to have the opportunity to compete for the national title in St. Louis, Missouri, there is work to be done.
This weekend 140 wrestlers will wrestle in the Big Ten Championships at the Xfinity Center in College Park, Maryland, vying for an automatic bid to the big dance. As almost everyone knows, it does not get tougher than the Big Ten tournament, which is arguably as tough as the National tournament itself.
Of course, who we see wrestle the entirety of the tournament is to be determined. In recent years, multiple wrestlers have competed to the point where they secure their bid, and then medical forfeit out of the tournament.
One of those wrestlers who could potentially not finish the tournament, and someone wrestling fans will be watching closely, is three-time national champion, Carter Starocci, of Penn State. He was injured in his final bout of the regular season, and many questions surround the health status of Penn State star.
With all that being said, let's take a quick look at each weight class heading into the tournament.
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125-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 9
Top Seed: Matt Ramos (Purdue)
The Nittany Lion: Braeden Davis (6thSeed)
The Skinny: It is no secret that 125-lbs has been the most hectic weight in NCAA wrestling this year. There have been over a half-dozen different wrestlers that have been in the top spot in the national rankings, with the top ten consistently seeing new names. This is a very deep weight at the Big Ten tournament, featuring 2023 national runner-up, Matt Ramos, who comes in at the one seed. The bracket is so stacked, that former All-American, Michael DeAugustino, is seeded 7th. One of the more intriguing quarter-final match ups is on the bottom-half of the bracket. Three-seed Eric Barnett, who is a two-time All-American, will face Penn State’s freshman phenom Braeden Davis. The winner of that match could take on Drake Ayala from Iowa, who is ranked second in the country. However, Ayala will have to avenge a loss against the aforementioned DeAugustino, who beat Ayala in a dual meet this year. Essentially, there are seven different wrestlers who can win this weight. It will be one of the most exciting weights to watch from start-to-finish.
Top Three Prediction:
Ramos (Purdue)
Ayala (Iowa)
Davis (Penn State)
133-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 7
Top Seed: Ragusin (Michigan)
The Nittany Lion: Aaron Nagao (5th Seed)
The Skinny: This weight could be flipped on its head due to a seeding debacle. Three-time national qualifier, Brody Teske, is the 14th seed at this weight due to an error by Iowa. Teske will have Ohio State freshman Nic Bouzakis in the very first round. Regardless of the outcome of that match, a stud will fall to the wrestlebacks early on. Top seeded Dylan Ragusin had his redshirt pulled midway through the season, which was a blessing in disguise for Michigan. He is 22 – 1 on the year and ranked fifth nationally. It is possible we see a rematch from earlier this year, as Penn State’s Aaron Nagao, who is the fifth seed, is on a possible semifinal collision course with Ragusin. In the dual meet, Ragusin won an instant classic, where he pinned Nagao in overtime. Dylan Shawver is in a nice position in the bracket as the two seed, where he will likely have the winner of the Teske/Bouzakis pre-quarter match.
Top Three Prediction:
Ragusin (Michigan)
Shawver (Rutgers)
Bouzakis (Ohio State)
141-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 11
Top Seed: Beau Bartlett (Penn State)
The Nittany Lion: Beau Bartlett (1st Seed)
The Skinny: Another weight that will be on to keep an eye on. This bracket features several returning All-Americans, a couple of stud newcomers, and a deep field that could make things interesting early on. Penn State’s Beau Bartlett is the top seed with a perfect 18 – 0 record. Sitting at the two and three seeds are Jesse Mendez (OSU) and Real Woods (Iowa), who are both former All-Americans. Mendez took 6th in 2023, and Woods is a two-time All-American and the 2023 national runner-up. Nebraska’s Brock Hardy, who also reached the national podium last season, is the fourth seed. Hardy had a controversial match with top-seeded Bartlett, which Bartlett squeaked out. Sitting at the fifth seed is Michigan’s Sergio Lemely, who is a true freshman that has a win over Real Woods earlier this year.
Top Three Prediction:
Bartlett (Penn State)
Woods (Iowa)
Mendez (Ohio State)
149-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 9
Top Seed: Ridge Lovett (Nebraska)
The Nittany Lion: Tyler Kasak (4th Seed)
The Skinny: This weight class is headlined by top ranked and former national runner-up, Ridge Lovett, and former All-American, Austin Gomez. Lovett was undefeated going into his final regular season bout of the year, where he lost to Arizona State’s Kyle Parco. Aside from that loss, Lovett has been dominant this year, which includes an 11-4 win over Gomez. A dark horse at this weight is Ohio State’s Dylan D’Emilio. Who, despite being an All-American last season, is a fifth seed in the bracket. D’Emilio will have his hands full in a potential quarter-final match up with Penn State’s Tyler Kasak. Kasak, who stepped into Penn State’s lineup for the injured Shayne Van Ness, has been more than serviceable for the Nittany Lions, and has a one-sided win over D’Emilio earlier this year.
Top Three Predictions:
Lovett (Nebraska)
Gomez (Michigan)
Rathjen (Iowa)
157-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 9
Top Seed: Levi Haines (Penn State)
The Nittany Lion: Levi Haines (1st Seed)
The Skinny: This is a battle for second place, being that Levi Haines is nearly untouchable. Which is saying something because there is a lot of talent at this weight, featuring six All-Americans. Haines is a perfect 15-0 on the year, bonusing two-thirds of his opponents. Following Haines is a crop of talented wrestlers who all match up quite evenly. A potential quarter-final match between Iowa’s Jared Franek and Nebraska’s Peyton Robb will be a barnburner. Robb, a two-time All-American, lost to Franek 5 – 4 in the dual meet. Another intriguing match-up fans could see is a battle between two former teammates in the semi-finals. Indiana’s Brayton Lee, who was previously an All-American at Minnesota, could run into the Golden Gophers’ Michael Blockhus. However, both wrestlers will have work to do before then. Especially for Blockhus, who will likely see former All-American Will Lewan. Yes, the crown is all but locked, but this is still a really fun weight class.
Top Three Predictions:
Haines (Penn State)
Blockhus (Minnesota)
Robb (Nebraska)
165-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 10
Top Seed: Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin)
The Nittany Lion: Mitch Mesenbrink (2nd Seed)
The Skinny: The top-seeded Dean Hamiti comes in with one loss on the year, which came at the hands of multiple-time National Champion, David Carr. Hamiti, however, has not crossed paths with the ultra-talented Mitchell Messenbrink from Penn State. Mesenbrink has been the breakout star of 2024, and is a perfect 18-0 with a bonus rate of 74%. On top of that impressive resume, he is ONLY a freshman. Hamiti, however, is a tall task for anyone he wrestlers, and I mean that quite literally. Hamiti may be the tallest 165-lber of all time, and his length is a challenge for opponents. North Dakota State transfer, Michael Caliendo, has been a great pick up for the Hawkeyes and is one of the few wrestlers to push Hamiti this year. Caliendo, the third seed who took 7th at last year’s national tournament, lost a high-scoring 14-11 match to Hamiti. A potential bracket buster on the bottom half of the bracket is Michigan’s Cam Amine, who comes in as the sixth seed. Amine is a three-time All-American, and will be a difficult quarter-final matchup for Caliendo.
Top Three Predictions
Mesenbrink (Penn State)
Hamiti (Wisconsin)
Caliendo (Iowa)
174-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 8
Top Seed: Carter Starocci (Penn State)
The Nittany Lion: Carter Starocci (1st Seed)
The Skinny: The biggest storyline surrounding this weight, and possibly all of college wrestling, is how healthy is Carter Starocci? Starocci, who is looking to capture his fourth national title this year, was injured in Penn State’s final dual meet of the year against Edinboro. Of course, Penn State head coach Cael Sanderson isn’t offering up much insight, aside from the fact he feels confident Starocci will finish out the season. It is safe to assume that if Starocci wrestles, it will be just enough to get him an automatic bid, and then he will drop out of the tournament. Following Starocci is the second seed and former National Champion, Shane Griffith of Michigan. Griffith, who transferred to the Wolverines from Stanford, is 12 – 2 on the year with both losses coming outside the Big Ten. If Starocci does drop out of the tournament, Illinois’ Edmond Ruth could be the benefactor of a big break, as he is the four seed in the bracket. Ruth’s lone loss in Big Ten competition comes from the hands of the third seed, Iowa’s Patrick Kennedy, who has losses to both Starocci and Griffith. Kennedy defeated Ruth 5-1 in dual meet competition. A sleeper at this weight is Ohio State’s Rocco Welsh, who has losses to Starroci, Griffith, and Ruth. Welsh dropped 2 – 1 decisions to both Griffith and Ruth, and could be a legitimate title contender if Starroci does not wrestle the entire tournament.
Top Three Predictions
Griffith (Michigan)
Ruth (Illinois)
Kennedy (Iowa)
*Assuming Starocci will not finish the tournament
184-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 8
Top Seed: Isaiah Salazar (Minnesota)
The Nittany Lion: Bernie Truax (3rd Seed)
The Skinny: This weight may not have the star power as most of the brackets, but this is a very competitive weight that features several different wrestlers that could take home the Big Ten title. The top seeded Isaiah Salazar comes in with an 18 – 1 record, with one of those 18 wins being over second-seeded Lenny Pinto of Nebraska. Including the loss to Pinto, Salazar is 12 – 1 in his last 13 matches, with a win over 3rd seed Bernie Truax in that stretch. Truax who was a three-time All-American at Cal Poly prior to transferring to Penn State, is certainly capable of winning this bracket. A possible rematch between Pinto and Truax could make for a very fun semi final bout, as the match was an 8 – 6 match. At the four seed is Ohio State’s Ryder Rogotzke, who has bonus point wins over Truax, 5th seeded Jaden Bullock, and 6th seeded Layne Malczewski. Overall, this weight certainly has the most parody, and it would not be a surprise to see any of the top three seeds, or even someone seeded higher, reach the top of the podium.
Top Three Predictions
Truax (Penn State)
Salazar (Minnesota)
Pinto (Nebraska)
197-POUNDS....
Automatic Bids: 7
Top Seed: Aaron Brooks (Penn State)
The Nittany Lion: Aaron Brooks (1st Seed)
The Skinny: Another weight where the title is nearly a lock. Aaron Brooks has been one of, if not, the best pound-for-pound wrestlers in the country. This is a talented field, but none of them are on the level of Brooks. Maryland’s Jaxon Smith is the two seed, who has three losses on the year, two of which are to number one (Brooks) and two (Trent Hidlay – NC State) in the country. Smith will be the favorite on the bottom-half of the bracket, but he has not faced the 3rd, 6th, or 7th seeds this year. Iowa’s Zach Glaizer is the third seed, and quietly put together a great season. Glazier is 16 – 1, with his lone loss coming at the hands of Aaron Brooks. The 6th and 7th seeds should not be taken lightly in the bottom of the bracket, as both are capable of making runs down low. The sixth seed is Ohio State’s Luke Geog, who is only 12 – 6, but is extremely battle tested. John Poznanski has never faced off with Jaxon Smith, but that is a potential quarter-final to keep an eye on.
Top Three Predictions
Brooks (Penn State)
Smith (Maryland)
Glazier (Iowa)
HEAVYWEIGHT....
Automatic Bids: 7
Top Seed: Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State)
The Nittany Lion: Greg Kerkvliet (1st seed)
The Skinny: Historically, especially in recent years, heavyweight in the Big Ten has been a deep field with many reoccurring names. For several years, familiar faces such as Tony Nelson, Kyle Snyder, Gable Steveson, Mason Parris, and so on were repetitive names that fans would see dominate this tournament. This year, the names are not as familiar, but the talent pool is still deep. Greg Kerkvliet is the top seed who made a major transformation this offseason. Yes, Kerkvliet was very good last year, finishing 2nd in the country. This year, Kerkvliet looks better than ever, with an undefeated record and a 75% bonus rate. He is not just the favorite for the Big Ten title, but the National title, as well. Redshirt freshman Nick Feldman has been arguably the second-best heavyweight in the conference and is as gritty as they come. Feldman has wins of both the 3 and 4 seeds, and his only loss in the conference is to Kerkvliet. Michigan’s Lucas Davison, who is a two-time All-American from Northwestern, comes in at the three. Rounding out the top four is the Rutgers big man and Harvard transfer, Yara Slavikouski. He will have some work to do in order to meet Kerkvliet in the semis, as his potential quarterfinal match will be against Maryland’s Seth Nevills. An opponent Slavikouski lost to just a few weeks ago. Kerkvliet is head-and-shoulders above the field, but it will be fun to see the rest of the bracket battle it out – especially two through five seeds.
Top Three Predictions
Kerkvliet (Penn State)
Feldman (Ohio State)
Davison (Michigan)
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