Numbers Game: Eight stats Lions must turn around to bounce back in 2021

With a disappointing 4-5 finish in 2020 in the rear view mirror, the focus among those of a Penn State persuasion is now set on ensuring it doesn't repeat in 2021.

While one or two stats typically don't tell the full story, a collection of them can contextualize what went wrong for Penn State last year, as it finished under .500 for the first time since 2004.

Below, BWI takes a look at 8 stats that will need to be improved upon if the Nittany Lions are to have a better season in 2021.

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According to a metric devised by Football Outsiders called Net Field Position, which indexes a team’s average starting position on offense against its average starting position on defense, the Nittany Lions were one of the worst teams in the Big Ten when it came to field position last season. The metric gave Penn State a rating of -3.9, which was better than only Nebraska and Michigan State.

The Nittany Lions’ poor job of cashing in their own opportunities inside their 20-yard line perhaps overshadowed their inability to prevent opposing offenses from doing the same. Penn State allowed 28 red zone entries in nine games last season and allowed its opponent to come away with points on 25 of those trips — 20 of them being touchdowns. That left the Nittany Lions with a red zone defense that ranked 104th nationally in scoring success rate. Only Rutgers and Michigan were worse among Big Ten teams.

Looking at yardage totals, Penn State should have had one of the best defenses in the Big Ten last season. It allowed fewer yards per game than any Big Ten team besides Iowa and Wisconsin, but was just the sixth-ranked defense in the conference in points allowed per game, at 27.7. This can be attributed to a few things we’ve already covered, like the red zone and the Penn State offense’s habit of leaving its defense with poor field position. But another factor is that the Nittany Lion defense struggled to create takeaways, ranking in the bottom half of the Big Ten with just 10 in nine games. That’s a drastic departure from the season before, when the Nittany Lions generated 22 turnovers in 13 games.

Penn State’s backfield was makeshift at best last season after Journey Brown was sidelined before the first game due to a career-ending heart issue and Noah Cain was injured early on against Indiana. Devyn Ford and, notably, true freshman Keyvone Lee deputized admirably in their absence, but the reality is that Penn State’s running game was nowhere near as explosive as it typically is. In 2018, Penn State averaged 5.1 yards per rush. In 2019, that number dipped slightly to 4.9. That average fell by a full yard in 2020 to 3.9 yards per rush, leaving the Nittany Lions without an explosive ground game within an offense that thrives and depends on big plays when everything is clicking.

Penn State allowed more sacks per game than any Big Ten team besides Maryland in 2020, with the opposition getting to the quarterback at a rate of 3.11 times per 60 minutes. This is an area where the Nittany Lions have struggled for a while, sitting in the bottom half of the nation for the last three seasons. Still, the 3.11 mark is a considerable jump from the 2.46 sacks per game Penn State surrendered in 2019, and something that must change if the Nittany Lions are to prove 2020 was just a blip.

James Franklin’s displeasure with the inability of Penn State’s offense to create big plays down the field was made well-known when he explained his reasons for bringing in new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Franklin will be relying on Yurcich to turn around an offense that averaged a relatively pedestrian 5.3 yards per play last season, after averaging 5.7, 5.9, and 6.4 yards per play over the previous three seasons. Penn State had just six plays of at least 40 yards relative to last season, when it had 22.

We’ll combine these two under one subhead because they were discussed week after week during the season, but it would be wrong not to mention them. The Nittany Lions turned it over 17 times in just nine games, putting them among the worst 30 teams in the country despite the fact that many teams in other conferences played more games. In the red zone, the Nittany Lions came away with points on just 76 percent of their trips, which ranked in the bottom 25 nationally as well.

A contributing factor to Penn State’s poor red zone percentage was an uncharacteristically shaky year from its kickers. A season after missing just two of their 15 attempts, Jake Pinegar and Jordan Stout combined to make just 11 of their 18 field goal tries in 2020, meaning Penn State left 21 points on the board from kicking situations alone — or 22 when you add in an extra point the Nittany Lions missed.

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