Published Oct 9, 2021
Penn State-Iowa Matchups: What to expect from Lions, Hawkeyes
Greg Pickel  •  Happy Valley Insider
Staff

Are you ready for more Penn State football?

The Nittany Lions are set for a clash with the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium, and a spot in the top-five, which is where both teams rest entering game day, is on the line.

Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET (3 p.m. CT) in Iowa City, and a capacity crowd is expected. That will give longtime Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz's team the home-field advantage, of course, but who has the edge on offense and defense?

It's time to break down the matchups.

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When Penn State has the ball

There's really only one place to start here, and it's the turnover column.

Iowa's defense has been a ball-hawking machine. The Hawkeyes forced seven turnovers at Maryland last Friday night and have 16 on the season. It's a number that's impressive as it is not sustainable, but just because the math says that their good run is likely to end at some point doesn't mean it has to on Saturday afternoon.

It's why securing the football is the most important thing Penn State must do when it's in possession of it, No one likes three-and-outs, or not fighting for extra yardage, but both are going to be preferable outcomes to forcing something and giving the home team the ball, which will set their sellout crowd into a frenzy. The good news is that the Lions have been better in this particular area through five games, but there's no possible way one can outright dismiss the past when talking about the present in this regard. It's an edge for Iowa until proven otherwise.

Moving on to the overall evaluation, Iowa's defense is very sound in general. It ranks No. 3 against both the pass and the run (which is certainly a byproduct of all those turnovers) and allows just 2.7 yards per carry, which is second only to Wisconsin (2.0). And, interestingly enough, Iowa has faced 164 rushing attempts to 166 pass attempts, so this isn't a case of a run defense being propped up by facing teams who were forced or wanted to throw a lot.

You have to pick your poison when attacking this team. Corners Riley Moss and Matt Hankins are very good, and so is defensive end Zach VanValkenburg. It has playmakers at all levels and is sound in terms of gap responsibility and alignment. Iowa won't beat itself and is going to try like crazy to limit big plays, and it will have a loud crowd at its back.

I hesitate to give the Hawkeyes the edge here, because I do think Mike Yurcich, Sean Clifford, and the Lions' offense will solve them eventually en route to a win. That said, I will, because I want to see the Nittany Lion run game set up the passing attack in this kind of environment before predicting it ahead of time, and Iowa's interception and fumble recovery numbers should be enough to scare even the most confident Penn State fan.

EDGE: IOWA

When Iowa has the ball

Unlike above, this decision was made before even pouring over the numbers. Penn State's fast, aggressive, and opportunistic defense is going to press Iowa at every turn.

The Hawkeyes have the third-worst rushing offense in the Big Ten (PSU is the fourth-worst, of course) and their passing attack is middle of the pack in the conference. It's hard to envision quarterback Spencer Petras throwing the ball all over the field opposite Penn State's long and quick secondary, and his top-two targets aren't even receivers.

Petras actually has decent numbers against blitzes, but he really struggles when he's under duress from just a three- or four-man rush. It's why the play of Arnold Ebiketie, PJ Mustipher, Derrick Tangelo, Nick Tarburton, Jesse Luketa, and their backups hold the key to victory from this point of view on defense. If they can create enough of a pass rush to let the Lions routinely drop seven, it becomes difficult to figure out how the Iowa will approach 20 points.

One other note: Brandon Smith and Curtis Jacobs will need to be ready to handle Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, and there's no reason to think that they won't be up to the challenge.

This looks like a severe mismatch on paper that should frustrate Iowa all afternoon and evening long when you put it all together.

EDGE: PENN STATE

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Quick Hits 

--Penn State must be aware of Iowa do-everything returner Charlie Jones at all times, but he's going to have a tough time impacting this game if Jordan Stout continues to boom touchbacks and kick perfect punts from both a distance and a part of the field perspective. Advantage Nittany Lions there.

--The field goal side of things is probably a wash. Iowa's Caleb Shudak is eight of nine with a long of 51 yards, which Stout can obviously make from. The key here will be to not miss any chip shots.

--Iowa has allowed 11 punt returns so far this year, which is sixth-most in the FBS. Perhaps this is the opportunity for Jahan Dotson to flip the field in a big way, as he should have an opportunity or two to do so.

Final Thoughts 

This is a fascinating contest to handicap because both sides have some clear strengths, a few obvious weaknesses, and some areas where they match up pretty well.

You don't need to be a football savant to figure out that the defenses are expected to control this one, but it's not outlandish to say that Penn State's offense has a better chance to beat up Iowa's defense than the other way around, and that's probably what stands out the most when comparing how these top-five sides matchup.

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