This Saturday, the Penn State Nittany Lions return to the field after their lone bye week of the 2023 season to take on non-conference opponent, the UMass Minutemen. The Minutemen enter Week 7 as a 1-6 record on the season and losers of six straight. After winning their season opener 41-30 over New Mexico State, the Minutemen have averaged just 23.6 points per game, while opponents have averaged 41 points during that stretch.
The Nittany Lions are over a 40-point favorite for Saturday's contest at Beaver Stadium, and here is what you should know about the Minutemen entering the game.
This is the second matchup all-time between Penn State and UMass
The last time these two programs met was in James Franklin's first season as the Nittany Lions head coach, a 48-7 win for Penn State in State College. UMass has eight wins over Power Five opponents all-time, including five wins over Boston College, two wins over Rutgers, and one win over BYU. Their last win over a (current) Power Five team is BYU in 2017, a 16-10 victory.
The Minutemen can be very explosive
Believe it or not, this is one of the more explosive offenses in the country. The Minutemen rank;
20+ Yards: 20th in the country (35)
30+ Yards: 36th in the country (15)
40+ Yards: 15th in the country (10)
50+ Yards: 2nd in the country (8)
60+ Yards: 3rd in the country (5)
It's quite the difference from Penn State's offense this season, that has been one of the least explosive offenses in the country. For comparison, here is how the Nittany Lions rank in plays of 20+, 30+, 40+, 50+, and 60+ yards.
20+ Yards: T-132 in the country (12)
30+ Yards: 126th in the country (5)
40+ Yards: T-132 in the country (1)
50+ Yards: 110th in the country (1)
60+ Yards: T-68th in the country (1)
In the rushing attack, UMass has seen running backs Kayron Lynch-Adams, Greg Desrosiers Jr, and quarterback Taisun Phommachanh all have carries over 30+ yards this season. Both Lynch-Adams and Desrosiers are averaging over 5.0 yards per carry.
In the passing attack, four different wide receivers have recorded receptions of 40+ yards. Their leading receiver is Anthony Simpson, who has totaled three 100+ receiving yard games so far this season, including seven receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown last weekend against Toledo. Wide receiver Christian Wells hasn't had many opportunities with just nine receptions but has made the most of them with 149 yards and a touchdown, averaging 16.6 yards per reception. All in all, seven different players have recorded double-digit receptions for the Minutemen, with five of them averaging 10+ yards per reception.
A former Penn State target at quarterback
Former Penn State target Taisun Phommachanh is one of two quarterbacks who have seen a large chunk of the playing time this season. Phommachanh now on his third school is completing 65.7% (67-for-102) this season for 788 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. Last weekend against Toledo, he was 20-for-31 for 272 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. It was the best performance of his season so far.
What UMass did against Auburn earlier this season
UMass obviously at 1-6 is not a team that should be much of a threat to Penn State but to get a better sense of what we may see out of the Minutemen on Saturday, lets look back at their matchup against Auburn earlier this season.
In that game against the Tigers, the UMass offense totaled 14 points and just over 300 total yards of offense. They actually had quite a bit of success on the ground with 140 rushing yards over 27 carries while also throwing for 161 yards. That being said, 58 of those yards came on an Anthony Simpson touchdown reception in the fourth quarter.
Running back Kay'ron Adams was especially strong in that game, averaging 7.2 yard per carry and totaling 101 yards on the ground. Notably, that was the second-worst performance by Auburn's run defense this season, the only performance that was worse was a 209-yard performance against Texas A&M.
Now, this of course is a much better Penn State team and defense that the Minutemen will be facing this weekend. After allowing 146 rushing yards in their season opener, Penn State's run defense over their last four games has been dominant, allowing just 56.2 yards per game including just 65 total yards over their last two games. The UMass offense may be able to get a quality run or two against Penn State's defense, but don't expect the Minutemen to come close to their season average of 142.7 yards per game.
The Nittany Lions front seven should be able to dominate UMass's offensive line throughout the game. It would be surprising if the Minutemen even get close to 60-70 yards let alone 100.
The UMass defense is a very, very bad defense.
Despite having a great defensive mind in Dom Brown as their head coach, the UMass defense remains the weakness of the Minutemen program. This season, the Minutemen are allowing 39.4 points per game, which ranks second to last in the country. On average, they're allowing 232 passing yards and 220 rushing yards for a total of 452 yards per contest.
The Minutemen have allowed 500+ yards in each of their last two games to Arkansas State and Toledo. The Red Wolves and Rockets getting to the 500 yard mark in different ways. In a 52-28 win over UMass, Arkansas State threw for 383 yards while rushing for 173 while Toledo flipped the box score, passing for just 139 yards but rushing for 375 yards including 9.6 yards per carry.
The Minutemen's defense is allowing nearly 5.9 yards per carry this season and have allowed over six yards three times this season.
For a Penn State offense that hasn't shown a ton of explosion through their first five games of the season, this is a very favorable matchup for the Nittany Lions. UMass ranks dead last in plays of 20+ yards allowed with 47, an average of 6.7 plays per game. They've also allowed 22 plays of 30+ yards, 16 plays of 40+ yards, and 10 plays of 50+ yards.
The lack of explosion has been a serious point of discussion over the last two weeks, and understandably so. Penn State is not going to win the Big Ten without seeing those explosive plays start picking up. They don't need to have an explosive play every drive against UMass, but if the lack of explosiveness continues this Saturday against UMass, it should be a serious point of concern for the Nittany Lions' matchup against Ohio State. Yes, the Nittany Lions haven't looked to be overly explosive in their first five games, and it's worth noting they haven't had to be and have dominated even without them. That being said, considering the talent the Nittany Lions have on offense, you shouldn't have to seek out the explosive plays, some of them to a degree should happen naturally. That just hasn't happened this year.
When it comes to the passing attack, that's a bit more understandable and can be looked beyond to a certain degree. But the lack of explosive run plays is a much bigger concern heading into this weekend. The Nittany Lions have just two rushing plays of 20+ yards this season. If Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are not able to start breaking off big chunk runs, the Nittany Lions chances of beating Ohio State or Michigan lower dramatically.
Don't expect Penn State to necessarily come out this Saturday and go for big play after big play, but it will be intriguing to see if they can find some of those big plays can begin to develop naturally.
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