Penn State crushed the over on its projected win total for the 2019 season, stringing together eight straight wins to start the season to climb into the fourth spot of the first College Football Playoff rankings.

In light of Penn State’s massive off-season personnel overhaul, sending five early departures to the NFL while experiencing a mass exodus through the transfer portal, plus the normal graduation of its senior class, the success proved to be a surprise to many. Riding confident performances from quarterback Sean Clifford and an outstanding collective effort on the defensive side of the ball, in conjunction with a schedule that allowed for gradual development, Penn State couldn’t have asked for much more.

And yet, a 31-26 loss at unbeaten Minnesota on Nov. 9, coming out of a bye week, created an undeniable sense of anticlimax.

Unexpected as Penn State’s success might have been up until that point, with only the Gophers, Indiana, at Ohio State and Rutgers left on the schedule, even a probable loss to the unbeaten Buckeyes would have kept the Nittany Lions in the CFP conversation. Instead, the loss sent Penn State into the postseason with a 2-2 mark in its last four, leaving the Nittany Lions to settle for a Cotton Bowl date with Memphis, a 53-39 win that served as a national appetizer for the day’s CFP semifinal games later that evening.

With more critical departures to the NFL this off-season, where does that leave Penn State heading into 2020?

Offensive overhaul, or the lack thereof

Penn State head coach James Franklin likes continuity. He’s said as much repeatedly through his tenure with the program, and despite some of the challenges that come with success, particularly that of vast personnel changes among the players themselves as well as on the coaching staff, he’s committed to the notion.

The bottom line for Penn State and Franklin is that he believes that the priorities that have been in place since 2016 are indeed the path to the CFP. Create explosive plays through repeated shots in the deep passing game, don’t allow for negative-yardage plays, don’t turn the ball over, don’t commit penalties, and from a broader perspective, play complementary football in all three phases of the game.

How new OC Kirk Ciarrocca implements those ideals will undoubtedly come with tweaks, but Franklin insisted on Ciarrocca adjusting his system to the framework that already existed at Penn State to create a more fluid transition from Ricky Rahne into the future. In these unique and challenging times of COVID-19, on a severely amended learning schedule, the notion becomes that much more integral to the possibility for future success.

Wideout woes

Woes might be too strong of a word, but in the absence of K.J. Hamler, Penn State’s leading receiver from the 2019 season who opted to forgo his final two seasons of eligibility to pursue his NFL dreams, the Nittany Lions are in dire need of production in the passing game.

Granted, Jahan Dotson, a steady presence coming off a sophomore season with 27 receptions for 488 yards and five touchdowns, will be back alongside tight end Pat Freiermuth, who himself reeled in 43 catches for 507 yards and seven scores. But Penn State’s next-leading receiver to return will be Daniel George and his nine catches for 100 yards.

Along with Cam Sullivan-Brown, a rising redshirt junior who has yet to make a significant contribution, Penn State is left with a stable of untested wideouts in the true and redshirt freshman classes. The redshirts are four-star John Dunmore and three-star T.J. Jones, four-star KeAndre Lambert-Smith and three-star Jaden Dottin are a midsemester enrollees who went through winter workouts before everything got shut down for the spring, and four-star Parker Washington and three-stars Norval Black and Malick Meiga will all, presumably, arrive to begin their careers at Penn State sometime this summer.

With many other established pieces in place and returning following solid seasons, particularly in the form of Sean Clifford at quarterback and Penn State’s bevy of talented running backs in Journey Brown, Noah Cain, Devyn Ford, and newcomer Caziah Holmes, this is the element that can truly make the season ahead boom or bust for the Nittany Lions.

Ciarrocca comes with high expectations and a track record to suggest future success, but players have to make plays, and Penn State’s performances at wideout will undoubtedly be a big part of that this season.

Defensive rebuild or reload?

Defensive coordinator Brent Pry has quietly managed to put season-after-season of quality units on the field at Penn State since taking over for Bob Shoop beginning with the 2016 season. And really, his first at the helm was the worst of them.

The off-season departure of defensive line coach Sean Spencer to the New York Giants represents a sea change for Penn State, though, if not in actual philosophy but definitely in spirit. Spencer’s lines were the foundations of Penn State’s success on that side of the ball, creating havoc and disruption up front to stop the run and create negative-yardage plays with a fierce and unrelenting set of ends. With Yetur Gross-Matos being Penn State’s best last season, now also gone to the NFL, the question is whether or not Penn State will have the foundational element of its defense intact up front to allow for its superstar, returning junior linebacker Micah Parsons, to shine.

Parsons can be a game-wrecker, and Penn State no doubt is banking on his performance to be the backbone of its defense, but everything starts in the trenches in this game and a continuation of past success will be necessary to make that a reality.

K.J. Hamler, receiver

Though slight in size, Hamler became Penn State’s go-to option in the passing game last season as a redshirt sophomore, nabbing 56 catches for eight touchdowns and 904 yards.

Now that he’s training for an NFL future, Penn State will have to come up with an alternate plan in the passing game, which ultimately might not be the worst thing for everybody involved. By his admission, Hamler had too many drops last season, and at times Clifford directed passes to Hamler that were especially low percentage balls due to the coverage being thrown at the receiver.

Whether or not Penn State can find a way to create a receiver room with a more equally allocated distribution of talent remains to be seen, as certainly the more the merrier applies in this situation, but with Hamler gone, new receivers coach Taylor Stubblefield has to ensure that at least one piece of the puzzle steps up.

Sean Spencer, defensive line coach

Spencer’s track record in nine seasons with Franklin is undeniable, but it’s been his six years at Penn State that cemented his place as one of the top defensive line coaches in the Big Ten. The New York Giants realized as much and poached him from Penn State this off-season, leaving a hole in the figurative heart of the Nittany Lion defense.

For as much as Spencer did in generating productive, consistent performance from his lines, his appearance on HBO’s 24/7 program this past season demonstrated the emotional and spiritual element he brought not just to his room, but the team as a whole. The outpouring of love upon the announcement of his departure brought it into focus even more.

Penn State will move on, it has no other choice, and new position coach John Scott has a shared history with Pry, making the transition likely to be smoother than it might have been otherwise. The top priorities of stopping the run, which was first in the nation in giving up just 2.55 yards per carry last season, and creating sacks, which Penn State generated more than 40 for the fifth consecutive season, will remain.

Yetur Gross-Matos, defensive end

To some, expectations might have been higher for Gross-Matos’ third season at Penn State, but his 9.5 sacks and 15.0 tackles for loss led the Nittany Lions in both categories despite the obvious extra attention he received throughout the year.

Penn State has no shortage of capable ends returning with some experience and hype ahead of the 2020 season, Shaka Toney, Jayson Oweh, Shane Simmons and Adisa Isaac chief among them, so it will be imperative for the group to sort itself out and find a rotation that works if it hopes to continue its success without Gross-Matos’ presence on the field.

Sean Clifford, quarterback

In college football especially, it’s always the biggest element to have a returning quarterback who demonstrated his proficiency and experienced some success the year prior.

In Clifford, Penn State’s situation is no different, welcoming him back after a solid debut in which he completed 189 of 319 passes for 23 touchdowns and 2,654 yards, with just seven interceptions.

Coming back for a redshirt junior campaign having been through the fire, tasted success, and tasted some shortcomings and mistakes, Clifford and his highly competitive persona will be determined to do even better.

Micah Parsons, linebacker

That Clifford is on the early look-ahead futures list of Heisman contenders shouldn’t come as a surprise. Penn State is positioned to be again part of the Big Ten title race and by extension, the CFP conversation, and Clifford is the quarterback, so it just stands to reason.

That Parsons is only about two notches behind him on the betting tables speaks volumes, though.

What’s interesting for Parsons is that he was named an All-American after a sophomore season that, in reality, barely scratched the surface of what he’s likely capable of doing. He finished with a team-high 109 tackles, plus 14.0 TFL and 5.0 sacks, complemented by five pass breakups, four quarterback hurries, four forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.

Still, he remains without a career interception, and the game-changing plays made by the best players in the biggest moments were largely reserved for his impeccable Cotton Bowl performance. For Parsons, it’s just a matter of taking that momentum through the off-season and letting it carry him to new heights next season, not so much statistically as much as through time and place production that can truly upend a game.

Michal Menet, center

If quarterback is a position you want to have a successful, consistent returning veteran, center can’t be far behind.

Menet announced his return this off-season despite some suggestion that he could viably opt out of his final season of eligibility to take his chances in the NFL. With that decision made, Menet can continue to make strides and, for the program as a whole, the offense can continue to enjoy two heady, mature players closest to the ball every play.

Kirk Ciarrocca, offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach

With Ricky Rahne taking the head coaching job at Old Dominion in December, Franklin lost a longtime collaborator and friend.

But he also gained an opportunity to again go outside of his coaching tree to give Penn State another chance to ascend from its place among the second-tier programs in the game; close, but just outside the circle of regular CFP participants and contenders.

Having witnessed what Ciarrocca did to Penn State this past season in Minneapolis, the OC directing Minnesota to an explosive afternoon and, ultimately, a 31-26 win, Franklin went out and did to the P.J. Fleck what has at times frustrated Penn State during his tenure. Instead of being plucked of his top assistant coaching talent, Franklin and Penn State went out and did the plucking.

And the expectations within the program, and outside, are for Ciarrocca’s imprint to be immediate and impactful. “This isn't a rebuild,” Franklin said. “He was a part of two rebuilds. This isn't a rebuild. So we need to be able to come in and kind of hit on his year three (numbers) in year one, if that makes sense.”

Phil Trautwein, offensive line coach

A critical element to that equation rests in the influence that Trautwein can bring to Penn State’s offensive line.

With Franklin allowing the contract of Matt Limegrover to expire after four years this off-season, he went and found Trautwein from the Boston College staff. Attracted by the young assistant’s story - winning two national championships at Florida starting at left tackle despite not being highly recruited - then playing five seasons in the NFL, and immediately transitioning into a productive offensive line coaching tree, Franklin was optimistic about what the change could mean for Penn State’s OL moving forward.

That consistency in the run game and pass protection against not just the middle of the Big Ten pack, but against its very best, is something Penn State just hasn’t had, but Franklin feels is very much necessary to break into the next realm of success as a program.

TJ Jones/John Dunmore/KeAndre Lambert-Smith, receivers

Penn State has a need at receiver, as we’ve already documented.

The question is whether the production needed comes from any of these three possibilities, or someone else in the true freshman class.

Jones and Dunmore represent at least a season of experience working with Penn State’s scout teams, and Lambert-Smith’s midsemester enrollment has come with some initial positive impressions. Whether or not Penn State finds itself a reliable receiver out of this bunch remains to be seen, but it’s something the Nittany Lions are no doubt going to be focused on finding out quickly what they have at the position.

Under these circumstances, it’s going to be under an even further expedited timeline.

It’s the same as it always seems to be any more for Penn State.

This is a program that has established it can play with and (mostly) beat the “middle” of the Big Ten year-in-and-year-out.

Since the 2016 season, Penn State has eight Big Ten losses. Three have come against Ohio State, two against Michigan, two against Michigan State, and one against Minnesota. Of those losses, only two have been at Beaver Stadium.

So how does the 2020 season shape up for this team? Outside of a Week Two trip to Virginia Tech, the next big test is at Michigan on Oct. 3, then Ohio State back at home on Oct. 24. At Nebraska for the first time since 2012 on Nov. 7 is also an interesting date at first glance.

Certainly, there could be surprises, and Penn State’s three combined losses to Michigan State and Minnesota the past three years would fall under that category, but the season success now seems to align pretty consistently with the outcome of games against Ohio State and Michigan. Get at least a split in those games and then win the others that you’re favored in without stubbing your toe and you’re probably going to be in the Big Ten East and CFP conversation, which is ultimately what this program is aiming to achieve. Lose both, or suffer an unexpected loss, and you’re out.

The way-too-early lines show Penn State as underdogs in both, and unless they can translate to wins, no one inside the program or its followers will be satisfied regardless of what else happens through the year.

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