Friday Mailbag: Is Penn State the favorite with Abdul Carter?

It's the final Friday in July, which means it's time for Blue White Illustrated's Ryan Snyder to open up his Twitter notifications for another recruiting mailbag.

There was no shortage of questions from Penn State fans this week. Following two more Class of 2022 commitments from CB Cam Miller and Ath. Cristian Driver, plus a quick decommittment DE Tyreese Fearbry, who only committed a few weeks ago, there's plenty to discuss.

Check out this week's mailbag below!

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I logged a Penn State FutureCast for Abdul Carter Thursday afternoon after learning earlier this week that he's expected to be in attendance Saturday for the Lasch Bash Barbecue. With that said, as of this morning, it's unclear if he'll actually commit this weekend, and I expect that uncertainty to remain going into the weekend.

So, why did I log the pick? Well, obviously, I think he's leaning towards Penn State. We'll start there. Last month, Carter travelled to State College to camp with Brent Pry and the entire staff. You're not coming up here to camp if you don't have serious interest, especially when you hold offers from over a dozen other schools. Carter not only camped, but he killed it that day, putting up some very impressive numbers. Penn State's staff was already interested in him, but his performance at the Whiteout Camp assured that they'll push hard for a commitment.

Fast-forward to the end of June, when Carter returned for an official visit, and that's when most of our sources began hinting that Carter could very well end up here. He also took visits to Ole Miss and South Carolina in June, but all signs started pointing to Penn State as we rolled into July.

Now, with the class all but full, Carter is set to visit Penn State for the third time in eight weeks. The Lasch Bash is all about bringing families together, especially those that are already committed, along with their top remaining prospects. I expect Carter and his family to not only get a full-court press from the staff, but also those already committed. It wouldn't surprise me if he decided soon or waited a bit longer, but I do think as long as he doesn't wait a few more months, he'll be a Nittany Lion.

Tyreese Fearbry opening up his recruitment when he did caught me off guard a bit, although I was told shortly after by colleagues that he visited Pitt at least once, possibly twice, this past week. He's been to their facilities a lot this summer, and we knew there was a good chance he'd be back at Pitt at some point.

I honestly didn't log a Penn State FutureCast pick for Fearbry because I expected Pitt to keep going all out for him. A lot of guys just switch commitments - which then gets marked as a miss for me if they do - and I thought there was a chance he could potentially do that down the road. I do expect Penn State to keep pursuing him, but it's clear that Fearbry committed too early.

As far as replacements, I'll start by saying that I don't believe Penn State absolutely has to add another defensive end. The class is basically full, and there are a lot of good players who still have plenty of interest. If they can't find a defensive end that's worth adding at this stage, they won't.

With that said, I do believe Penn State has a lot of interest in DJ Wesolak from Missouri. I spoke with Wesolak last night actually and he made it clear that he had real interest in taking an official visit to Penn State this summer, but because of visits scheduled elsewhere, he couldn't make it work. If a scholarship or two is still available in September, I expect him to take an official visit for the Auburn game. That's already in the works. One thing to note about Wesolak though is that he told me he would prefer to play linebacker in college. At 6-5, 235, his frame suggests he'll likely grow into a defensive end, but that's one thing to keep in mind moving forward.

As for Alex VanSumeren, I look at him as a total wildcard at this stage. I know Penn State would love to add him, but they also have eight defensive tackles currently on roster with three or more years or eligibility remaining. That's a lot. If VanSumeren really wanted to commit, and he was down to do it in the very near future, I believe Penn State would think hard about it, but from a scholarship distribution standpoint, it's not wise to add three more defensive tackles this year. I honestly thought they could've signed just one and been fine.

Update: VanSumeren committed to Michigan State Friday morning

Nationally speaking, yes, I think there's a good chance we see a number that's above average this fall in regards to decommitments. A ton of players rushed to squeeze in four or five visits this summer after never really getting a chance to see games last fall. A ton of players will be itching to attend marquee games this fall, which will inevitably lead to players opening things up again.

But I genuinely don't believe that we'll see a handful of Penn State's current commits do that. This class is close. They have a very strong core group made up of players who committed early and have recruiting hard for months now. Kaden Saunders, Jerry Cross, Ken Talley and a handful of other players have been excellent with that. I really could name probably five or six more. It's a great group. One of the strongest we've seen in James Franklin's tenure.

I don't like throwing names around in regards to who I think could decommit. These guys are teenagers. It's not fair of me to judge their level of dedication publicly, but I will say that I wouldn't be surprised at all if a few guys take visits elsewhere this fall. That happens every year, and this recruiting cycle has been anything but normal. With that said, I would genuinely be surprised if we saw a handful of decommitments before we get to the December signing period. One or two, sure, but for the most part, these guys are all-in.

This question has been asked a lot this week on our message board this week. I've been stressing for months now that last year's class wasn't nearly as bad as I think most fans make it out to be. Sure, it could've been better in a few ways, but finishing 26th in the rankings was more about the lack of scholarships than the actual talent itself.

When you sign just 16 players - they've since added junior college DT Jordan van den Berg - you're pretty much guaranteed to finish outside the top 10. Oklahoma, for example, signed three five-star and eight four-star players in its class last year and finished 13th. Why? Because just like Penn State, they only had room to sign 16 players.

I did an article last February breaking down the math and I would encourage you all to check it out. What I learned is that when you compared Penn State's average star rating, as well as the average points per player that they signed, the Nittany Lions ranked 15th and 14th, respectively. That's pretty much right on par with the class they signed in 2020, which finished 15th in the rankings with 27 players signing.

It was a strange year, no doubt, but it was strange for everyone. One last thing that I'll note is that, looking back, if there was ever a year for Penn State to have a small scholarship allotment, last year was the perfect time for it with no in person recruiting. With the NCAA extending eligibility to current players, a lot of schools won't be able to take a full class this year. From that perspective, Penn State lucked out in some ways and they're taking full advantage of it now.

KJ Winston will announce his commitment tomorrow. He's expected to just post his decision on Twitter, and it'll take place around 2 p.m. ET. I logged a FutureCast for Winston shortly after his official visit, and I've held firm with that pick throughout. Maryland certainly gave him something to think about, but I expect him to be a Nittany Lion.

I also expect Penn State to add a linebacker. I hit on Carter above. I think he's the guy to watch, and while I don't know if he'll make a decision this weekend, the fact that he's returning to State College for the third time in eight weeks says a lot. Carter also said at the end of June that it "would be ideal for me to know where I'm going before my senior season, but I'm just taking it slow right now."

Penn State needs another linebacker, so Carter doesn't have to commit this weekend, but he also can't wait months to do it either if he wants to be a Nittany Lion.

If everything lines up perfectly for Penn State, I could see 26. Technically, I believe 27 is possible, but that may be a stretch. It would also likely require little to no decommitments. Like I posted above, I don't see Penn State losing a handful of guys, but one or two more is always possible. Just about every school averages at least a couple decommitments nowadays, so it would be naive to think that another won't happen.

I do believe that Darius Clemons and Andre Roye are both still realistic at this stage, but when exactly they'll decide could have a big impact. For the most part, every additional commitment that Penn State adds at this stage impacts the direction they go after, so it's hard to predict who exactly they'll take when you get to this point.

I see them adding a linebacker, and we know Phil Trautwein would love to add one more tackle. Aamil Wagner is another player to consider, although he's likely leaning towards Notre Dame currently and plans to commit at the All-American Bowl in January, so his recruitment isn't going to end any time soon.

One other name to remember is Omari Evans from Texas. Listed as an athlete on Rivals, he would likely play wide receiver for the Nittany Lions. He came up for a workout at the end of June and really impressed the staff, running a 4.3 40-yard dash. He has quite a few admirers up in Lasch, so keep him in mind.

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