We take a brief look back at Penn State's win over Maryland before flashing forward to a showdown with Michigan.
Happy Monday, Nittany Nation!
Hope everyone's weekend went well.
Unfortunately, another weekend of college football action is in the books and the end of the regular season is quickly nearing. With that said, Penn State snapped its three-game losing streak this past Saturday to Maryland in a 31-14 victory. Now officially bowl eligible, the Nittany Lions will turn their attention to the top-10 ranked Michigan Wolverines, who beat down Indiana on national television Saturday evening, 29-7.
Before we delve into our Michigan primer, here are some quick notes and leftover thoughts regarding Saturday's win over Maryland.
The status of linebacker/defensive end Jesse Luketa
As you likely noticed on Saturday, Penn State senior linebacker/defensive end Jesse Luketa was absent from the Nittany Lions win. While suited up, Luketa did not appear in the game. Head coach James Franklin later said during his post-game press conference that Luketa was out due to injury. Unsurprisingly, he did not elaborate on the nature of the injury or any timetable on Luketa's return. With Franklin unlikely to comment on the injury in his weekly press conference on Tuesday, all eyes will surely be searching for No.40 on Wednesday evening during the open part of the Nittany Lions' practice. If Luketa is not able to go on Saturday for Penn State against Michigan it would be a huge blow for a defensive line that is already thin and has suffered the loss of two starters in defensive end Adisa Isaac and defensive tackle P.J Mustipher.
How much can Penn State's defense continue to bend but not break?
Over the last three games, Penn State's defense has been doing a ton of bending, to say the least. In those three games against Illinois, Ohio State and Maryland, the Nittany Lions have allowed a total of an average of 427.6 yards per game. It's by far the most out of any three-game stretch from the defense this season. Despite those numbers, Brent Pry's unit has continued to not break, keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone as it's done all season.
On Saturday, Maryland reached the red zone five times but came away with just two touchdowns. That came one week after the Nittany Lions stifled Ohio State's explosive offense, holding it to four field goals and one touchdown in six trips inside the red zone. A week prior, the Illini walked away with just 10 points on four trips, which does not even take into consideration any of Illinois' nine possessions in overtime.
There's no doubting this Penn State defense with its back to the wall. Opposing offenses have just 10 touchdowns on 34 red zone opportunities this season, a 29.4 percent conversion rate. However, 12 of those 34 opportunities have come in the last three weeks with five touchdowns allowed. The 41 percent touchdown rate in red zone is still excellent, thought it's nearly double the Nittany Lions' rate during their first six games of the season, which sat at 22 percent.
A potential trip to the Rose Bowl?
On paper, it looked like this past weekend of college football action was going to be one of the more mundane weeks we've experienced this season. That was, of course, a very naive thought to have as it was instead another hectic day across college football with upsets happening up and down the top 25. The biggest upset of the day, of course, was Purdue's 40-29 victory over No.3 Michigan State.
The Spartans' loss paved a path for Penn State to play its way into the Rose Bowl. The biggest key to this scenario, of course, is Penn State winning out against Michigan, Rutgers and Michigan State. The second part of the scenario is Ohio State winning out which includes games against, you guessed it, Michigan State and Michigan. If the Buckeyes can survive Purdue this weekend (which now has two top-five victories this season), they'll need to top both the Spartans and Wolverines to end this season. If Penn State and Ohio State both take care of their remaining schedules, the Nittany Lions would find themselves in the No. 2 spot in the Big Ten East.
Ohio State would also need to win the Big Ten Championship against whoever comes out of the mess that is Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, and Iowa. If the Buckeyes face one of Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Purdue, the chances of the Nittany Lions finding themselves in Pasadena come January seem solid. Iowa, on the other hand, would create an interesting scenario. Assuming OSU wins that game, it would be just the Hawkeyes' third loss of the season and they'd hold a win over the Nittany Lions as well. That could create quite the decision for the CFP ranking committee.
Michigan Primer
Now let's shift our focus to the Wolverines.
While Michigan’s run game has had success throughout the year, I still have my doubts around whether quarterback Cade McNamara, who has been dinged up in his own right, is able to lead his team to victory. That being said, this Wolverines team is sound fundamentally and has been one of the best-coached Michigan teams we've seen under Jim Harbaugh.
Nittany Lions open as a slight favorite, sort of:
Depending on where you looked on Sunday afternoon, Penn State opened as a one-point favorite over the Wolverines, though some sportsbooks had the Wolverines as a one-point favorite the other way. Vegas clearly views Saturday's matchup as a pick 'em,.
Blake Corum's injury status:
We're still five days away from kickoff, but it will be interesting to see how Michigan running back Blake Corum's injury status changes as the week goes on. The Laurel, Maryland product suffered a lower leg injury on Saturday against Indiana and was seen in a walking boot after leaving the game. During his post-game press conference, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh didn't believe the injury was anything serious, but wasn't sure of its exact nature or how long the sophomore tailback would be out of action. Corum is currently second on the team in rushing with 781 yards on 6.0 yards per carry.
Corum wasn't the only Wolverine to leave the game with an injury on Saturday. Wide receivers Andrel Anthony and A.J Henning also both left the game with undisclosed injuries. Losing any one of Corum, Anthony, or Henning would be big hits to Michigan's offense, let alone potentially losing all three for Saturday. We'll be keeping a close eye on any injury news coming out of Ann Arbor this week.
If Corum cannot go for Michigan on Saturday, Hassan Haskins will be asked to carry the load. The senior running back has 165 carries for 829 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season including rushing for 168 yards and a score against the Hoosiers.
The tandem of Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo:
We all know about the struggles Penn State's offensive line has had this season. On Saturday, the unit will face its biggest challenge of the season in the form Michigan's front seven. The unit is headlined by the defensive end duo of Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Hutchinson is a potential top-10 pick in next April's NFL Draft, while Ojabo, a redshirt freshman who was heavily recruited by Penn Statem has broken out in a big way for the Wolverines. Ojabo attended Blair Academy in New Jersey, the same school former Nittany Lion and 2021 NFL first-round draft pick Odafe Oweh. Together, he and Hutchinson have combined for 15.5 tackles for a loss and 14 sacks this season.
Josh Gattis having his best season yet as Michigan's offensive coordinator:
Now in his third season as the offensive coordinator for the Wolverines, former Penn State wide receiver coach Josh Gattis is putting together his best season to date. Last season, Michigan's 28.3 points per game ranked just 66th in the country. The Wolverines ran the ball just around 43 percent of the time last season and averaged just 131 yards per game on the ground. Entering this season, Gattis spoke about the issues in the run game and how he and the coaching staff had planned to make the run a much bigger focus of the offense in 2021. Fast forward to the beginning of November and the Wolverines own the nation's 20th-ranked scoring offense at 36.2 points per game and are averaging 234 yards per game on the ground. The duo of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum has been dynamic of a Michigan offense that is on track to be one of the best of the Jim Harbaugh era.
The success on the ground has also paved the way for success through the air, allowing the Wolverines to lessen the pressure on junior quarterback Cade McNamara. The junior out of Reno, Nevada hasn't been spectacular but has been efficient and effective when throwing the ball. Through nine games, he's completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,666 yards and nine touchdowns with just two interceptions.
The focus recently for the Wolverines has been on modernizing their offense and trying to find a next-level quarterback to help elevate that offense. Ironically, Michigan has opted instead to take a step back and go back to the roots of Big Ten football; ground and pound.
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