Opinion: Why RB Miles Sanders should declare early and go pro

For Penn State’s Senior Day ceremony Saturday, 21 graduating players were honored before their 38-3 victory over Maryland. There are likely more who played their last game in Beaver Stadium.

Junior running back Miles Sanders better be one of them, and the data is here to back up that assertion.

Following another 100-yard performance, his fifth of the year, Sanders finishes the regular season as the most productive draft-eligible RB in the Big Ten. Among those nationally who are able to declare for the NFL, Sanders’ 1,223 rushing yards ranks 10th. A year ago, 22 RBs heard their name called in the draft, 13 of which went in the fourth round or better, and you have to go back to the 2010 NFL Draft to find a time when fewer than 20 RBs were selected. If Sanders were to forgo his senior year at PSU, it'll almost certainly be worthwhile.

But those numbers explain only part of the reason why it’s Sanders’ rightful and deserved time to move on.

Averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season and 6.1 for his career, he has demonstrated and sustained the explosiveness that helped him garner a Top 50 four-star recruit ranking coming out of Woodland Hills in Pittsburgh three years ago. Among other draft-eligible RBs who carried the ball more than 200 times, only two had a better YPC average than Sanders this season. What more does he have to show?

One common criticism that has followed him throughout his career centers on his ball security. Five fumbles have been attributed to Sanders this year, including one Saturday following an otherwise strong 25-yard run in the third quarter. More than anyone, it’s something that he wants corrected.

“That weighs on me a lot,” he said in the postgame. “I try to be perfect in everything I do. I’m getting better at it."

Following in the shadow of Saquon Barkley, who didn’t put the ball on the ground once as a junior before declaring early for the draft, anytime Sanders fumbles it’s magnified. When it appears to be a pattern, it can be worrisome, and some argue that he needs to get those issues fixed before testing the NFL waters.

Recent selections show that’s not necessarily the case, though. Take the 2017 NFL Draft for example.

Minnesota selected Dalvin Cook in the second round (No. 41 overall), despite fumbling six times in his last season at Florida State. Likewise, Cincinnati took Oklahoma’s Joe Mixon No. 46, New Orleans took Alvin Kamara of Tennessee No. 67, Houston took D’Onta Foreman of Texas No. 89 and San Francisco took Joe Williams of Utah No. 121, and, get this, they all had five fumbles in their final collegiate season. The majority of them are making out pretty well in their second year of pro football. Sanders would, too, after a rookie season to learn the ropes.

To think that he has to return to Penn State in order to cure any fumble-itis is illusory. Sure, you might see a drop in his fumble totals as a senior, but it’s just as likely that’s due to a drop in his total number of carries. True freshman Ricky Slade has flashed and is starting to come on after a two-touchdown outing vs. the Terps. Redshirt freshman Journey Brown has been getting more work the second half of the season, and Penn State is looking to sign a couple blue-chip RBs in its Class of 2019, including five-star Devyn Ford. There are only so many carries to go around, and it would be a challenge for Sanders to see another 200-carry season again in this offense with guys like that joining him in the backfield. Therein lies perhaps the bigger point: He has more to lose by coming back than he does to gain.

He’s already shown that he has the physical tools to make it in the league – and has the athleticism that will shine at the Combine. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, he’s no longer slight of build, either, if he ever was. This year he’s been especially durable. After battling some nagging injuries early in his career, he’s now started every week and has carried the ball at least 14 times each game except in the 42-7 loss to Michigan, in which he ran it on just seven occasions.

He left the field briefly against the Terrapins when Tre Watson collided helmets with Sanders on his way down after a 7-yard gain in the third quarter. Watson was penalized for the hit and ejected.

“The play was over so I was just worrying about covering the ball and then all of a sudden, I felt a big hit in the back of my head.” Sanders told me when I asked about it afterward. “I’m fine, though.”

He’s fortunate that he was able to bounce right back, although on the next drive he fumbled. Maybe he was still a little shaken up.

To get through another season of college football injury-free would take even more good fortune. The risk isn’t worth it.

The brutal pounding that RBs take at both the amateur and professional level is unlike other positions on the offense and it’s just one reason why such a high number are often taken in the draft. In 2017, for instance, 30 RBs were picked, nearly one for every team. They’re a hot commodity; Sanders should be a hot commodity, even if his sample size is small.

Sitting behind Barkley the past two years, this is Sanders’ first and only 1,000-yard season, and that’s all he needs. Citing that 2017 draft again, Mixon and Foreman hit the millennium mark just once in college and Kamara didn’t at all during his time in Knoxville. It’s not unprecedented for someone to parlay a single strong season into a high-paying contract. Less mileage – fewer dings and scratches, after all – can be viewed as a positive by some general managers and scouts.

That’s if Sanders decides to go. Greg Pickel of PennLive.com asked Sanders immediately after the Maryland game if he had thought about it.

“Nope,” Sanders replied. “Not really. Just focused on balling. That’s all. That’s been my mentality all year, just focusing on balling.”

But when he does take the time to formally contemplate the decision, here’s to hoping he makes the right choice – the right choice for Penn State, because sending RBs to the NFL early in consecutive years is a heck of a recruiting pitch; for his mom, Marlene, who raised Miles mostly on her own; and for himself.

Because it’s important to recognize his own earning potential and capitalize on it while he can. Pounce now, because it’s fleeting, especially in a sport like football, specifically at a position like running back.