Penn State-Ball State Matchups: What to expect from the Lions, Cardinals

Penn State is a 22.5-point favorite ahead of Saturday's matchup with Ball State.

The atmosphere at Beaver Stadium should be electric, as a capacity crowd is expected for the first home game with fans at the 107,000-seat venue since 2019, and the Cardinals bring an experienced team to town.

Head coach Mike Neu's team is one of the favorites to win the MAC this year, in part because it has 16 "super seniors" who took the NCAA up on the free year given to all athletes because of the coronavirus pandemic. In full, 23 starters return between offense, defense, and special teams, and the veterans plus some newcomers combined for a 31-21 win over Western Illinois in last week's opener.

What should fans expect when Penn State has the ball and when it doesn't? Let's break down the matchup.

Was Ball State looking ahead to Penn State, or did some late scores simply make the final result closer than it actually was in Week 1?

Western Illinois' outlook is not great; it finished dead last in the Missouri Valley Conference preseason poll by a considerable margin. Yet, the Fighting Leathernecks had the contest tied 7-7 at halftime and 14-14 in the third quarter before a three unanswered Ball State scores gave it a 31-14 lead with 2:50 to play. Western Illinois then punched it in with 1:19 to go to equal the final score.

On the stat sheet, WIU outgained the Cardinals 437-404 thanks to a whopping 367 passing yards that came with an average of 12.2 yards per completion. The Fighting Leathernecks certainly couldn't run it, finishing with just 70 yards on the ground, but quarterback Connor Sampson had almost no issues when it came time to find an open receiver, and WIU ran 67 plays overall.

How does all of that relate to Penn State's first-ever meeting with Ball State?

The Cardinals run a 3-4 defense, so the same scheme the Nittany Lions saw at Wisconsin, and their unit is anchored by linebackers Jaylin Thomas, and Christian Albright and seemingly without star Brandon Martin, as the MAC's co-defensive player of the year in 2020 was hurt in the opener. I would expect Penn State to try and impose its will on the ground throughout the game, which it wasn't able to do against the stout Badgers front but should be able to against this MAC foe.

That said, its best path to doing so might just be throwing it around early, as again, Ball State's pass defense showed little resistance for 60 minutes. Big days appear to be in store for Sean Clifford, Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and yes, there is no reason to think that the tight ends will be absent again from the receptions sheet, either.

Ultimately, Ball State has plenty of experience, and that's great, but it's still the kind of defense that Mike Yurcich and the Nittany Lions should be able to pick apart. By utilizing the second half game plan in Week 1 out of the gate, it's hard to imagine the home team not lighting up the scoreboard on Saturday.

EDGE: PENN STATE

Here's the mission: Stop Justin Hall.

The Douglasville, Ga., fifth-year senior has already had a storied career in red and white, as he is the program's all-time receptions leader already and is also the current frontrunner in that regard among all active NCAA FBS receivers. He's caught a pass in every career game and will eventually get his, but limiting the damage he does in both the aerial attack and the return game is one of Penn State's keys to victory.

Western Illinois could not do that, as Hall netted eight catches for 137 yards and two scores. If Penn State can take him mostly out of the game, quarterback Drew Plitt will need to get other options involved, and there aren't really any other ones that should scare defensive coordinator Brent Pry's unit.

Will Jones is the lead back for offensive coordinator Kevin Lynch's bunch, and the goal will be to use the run with hopes of setting up the passing attack. Penn State will be down starting middle linebacker Ellis Brooks for the first half due to the targeting ejection, of course, but an effort that is even halfway in the ballpark of the one on display in Madison should prove enough to stymie Ball State's attack.

EDGE: PENN STATE

--Ball State started almost as poorly as Penn State did in the season's first game. It was outgained by its FCS foe 182-131, and it also had a nine-minute time of possession advantage.

--The Cardinals were picked to win the MAC in the conference's preseason poll.

--If this somehow turns into a field position battle, punter Nathan Snyder is returned All-MAC pick.

--Assuming the Lions do their best to shut down Hall, the other receiver to know is Yo'Heinz Tyler, who is one of Plitt's other top targets.

If you listened to The Blue-White Illustrated podcast that featured our picks and predictions for the year, you know how I feel about Ball State: It's a fine team for its conference, but I don't think this is the kind of "trap" team that is going to trip the Nittany Lions up before a Whiteout matchup with Auburn.

The Lions have advantages at every position, and if the opener is any indication, the skill players should have plenty of space to work on offense while the defense and special teams have only one game wrecker to worry about.

This is a great tune-up matchup for Penn State on paper, and it's hard to envision a close contest on Saturday at Beaver Stadium.

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