NSD 2020: Five things to know about this year's class

1) Biggest Class in Nearly Two Decades

Link: Penn State's Class of 2020 Roster

This year's class was on pace to be the biggest at Penn State since Rivals.com started in 2002. With 28 players committed this time last week, that would've topped the list, but OL Devin Willock's decommitment knocked the class down to 27 prospects. That ties Penn State's Class of 2009 for the biggest in at least the past 18 years.

Notable players in that Class of 2009 included Rivals100 OL Eric Shrive, as well as a few Rivals250 prospects: QB Kevin Newsome, WR Justin Brown and CBs Darrell Givens and Derrick Thomas. But in the end, it was the players outside the Rivals250, including DT Jordan Hill, OL John Urschel and LB Gerald Hodges, that ended up making the biggest impact. When you compare the two classes, there are a few similarities, but only time will tell if some of the less-heralded players in this year's class can exceed expectations.

2) What Could've Been

Link: Class of 2020 Rivals100

First, let me start by saying that this is a very good recruiting class. It should finish right around the top 15. More on that later.

But for many fans, this will also be a class that they look back on and can't help but wonder. Compared to the 2019 class, which featured six players with a 6.0 or 5.9 rating, as well 2018, which had 10 players with a 5.8 rating or better, including two 6.1 five-stars, the Class of 2020 was down a bit when it comes to the nation's top players. Unless the staff can add a Rivals100 prospect in January, this year's class will feature just two players with a 5.9 rating: Curtis Jacobs and Theo Johnson. At one point, the Lions had two other elite players committed, including eventual five-star linebacker Derek Wingo, but he ultimately switched his commitment to Florida. The other prospect was Rivals100 offensive tackle Aaryn Parks. He'll sign with Oklahoma today.

But there were a handful of other elite prospects seriously considering the Lions this time last year. Players like Bryan Bresee, Julian Fleming, Rakim Jarrett, MarShawn Lloyd, Mekhail Sherman, Antoine Sampah and Chris Tyree, all of whom currently sit in the top 50, were regular visitors during their sophomore and junior years. In fact, aside from Sampah, the other six recruits had all visited Penn State at least four times each by this point last year. Between just those seven players listed, they took 34 combined unofficial visits to Penn State between Feb. 2017 and Dec. 2018. The staff was never going to land all of those players, but you can also find plenty of other prospects between spots 51 and 250 that also took a handful of early visits to Penn State, only to lose interest following a disappointing 2018 season.

Fortunately for both fans and the coaching staff, this year's season has been more positive. If the Lions can win the Cotton Bowl against Memphis, they'll be all but assured a top 10 spot in next season's preseason polls. That'll garner the Nittany Lions plenty of recognition this spring and summer.

There are good times ahead for this program, and this year's class will produce multiple prospects that exceed expectations. It happens every year. But it'll also hard for fans to not to think about what this class could've been.

3) Key Positions

Naturally, with a class as large as this, there's going to be a few positions that really stand out, one of which is wide receiver. Since the start of Rivals.com, Penn State has signed five wide receivers just once, which also took place in 2009. In addition to Brown, the Lions added Brandon Felder, Shawn Kersey, Christian Kuntz and Devon Smith that year. Five additions along the offensive line, plus another six on the defensive line are also among the most over the past 18 years. Franklin and his staff have never signed more than four offensive lineman since taking over the program, but Joe Paterno's staff actually took seven in that 2009 class, as well as six in 2004 and 2007. Franklin and his assistants did take six defensive linemen in 2016. Paterno and his staff actually signed eight defensive linemen in 2006.

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4) Team Rankings

Link: Rivals 2020 Team Rankings

So, where is this class going to finish? Coming into Tuesday, the Lions sat at No. 13, but they were surpassed by Georgia last night when Rivals250 DB Major Burns announced his decision. UGA was always going to surpass Penn State, whether it was last night, today, or in the coming weeks. The teams that'll now determine if Penn State finishes in the top 15 are Notre Dame and Texas.

The Fighting Irish are expected to add one or two more players, one of whom, Ramon Henderson, should end up announcing today. However, since he's a three-star, that won't be enough for the Irish to jump the Lions. If the Irish add another, however, that should be enough. Texas is currently 224 points behind PSU, but the Longhorns are believed to still have five scholarships remaining. As long as they finish strong, there's a good chance they'll end up ahead of Penn State at some point, too.

In the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions should finish third behind Ohio State and Michigan. Nebraska is the closest team to Penn State, sitting at No. 17 as of Tuesday night. However, with 21 commitments already, and three 5.8 players thought to be leaning towards the Cornhuskers (Marcus Fleming, Jaiden Francois & Myles Slusher) it's unlikely that Scott Frost and his staff surpass the Lions.

5) What's Next?

No surprises are expected today. That may be boring for fans, but for Franklin and everyone inside the Lasch Building, an uneventful signing day is just fine. Now that the dead period is in effect, recruiting will take a backseat until Jan. 17. From there, the coaching staff will have 16 days to visit potential additions to the class. National Signing Day will then be a few days later, Feb. 5.

So, what are the chances that happens? If I had to make a bet today, I'd lean towards this class staying at 27 players, but it'll come down to how many current players either transfer out or leave early for the NFL. A few of those departures are already factored into the 27 that signed, but if a few more leave than expected, adding a defensive end of defensive back remains a possibility.

There are a few players to watch, one of whom is Connecticut DE Jah Joyner. Sean Spencer was in New England during the contact period and has shown interest in the athletic edge rusher. Joyner just decommitted from Boston College last night. At defensive back, Georgia native Isaiah Dunson is expected to wait until February. The former Florida State commit met with Terry Smith during the contact period and was planning to take an official visit to Penn State this past weekend if Theo Johnson committed elsewhere. If a scholarship becomes available, watch both of these players for an official visit next month.

UPDATED: 9:50 AM ET - James Franklin teased this morning that a player committed elsewhere reached out to the staff last night. Sources continue to hint that an addition to the class today is doubtful, but we'll monitor the situation throughout the day.

UPDATED: 10:30 AM ET - Rivals analyst Adam Friedman posted the latest on one of Penn State's top defensive prospects, who went on to commit elsewhere, now having second thoughts. Subscribers, join us inside The Lions Den for the latest.

UPDATED: 1:10 PM ET - Rivals250 DE Fadil Diggs contacted a few schools over the past few days, and considered making a switch, but in the end, he signed with Texas A&M Wednesday. Diggs was the player that Franklin hinted about during the webcast.

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