Penn State-Iowa storylines, keys to the game, more: Fifth Quarter

The anticipation has been building all week ahead of Penn State's first top-five matchup since 1999.

Now, kickoff between the No. 4 Nittany Lions and No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes is almost here.

For the history buffs, third-ranked PSU blasted fourth-ranked Arizona in the program's last game with both teams ranked among the first five spots of The Associated Press top-25.

Of course, that game has positively no bearing on this one, but Nittany Nation hopes for a similar outcome, just like the last time they were No. 4 in the country and won at Iowa 21-19 in 2017.

How can James Franklin's team achieve it, and what storylines shaped the week? We dive into that and more in this edition of Friday's Fifth Quarter.

For the first time this year, it's unclear whether Penn State will be an underdog or a favorite at kickoff.

Sportsbooks opened Iowa as a 2.5-point favorite back on Sunday, but the line has ping-ponged back and forth between pick'em and that number, while never quite getting to a field goal.

It means that the betting public and the people who make the odds believe this is going to be a tight contest, which is one of the many storylines that have shaped the week. Here are some others:

--Is Penn State ready for Kinnick? Some roster members were a part of the 2019 team that won there, but not every starter and key contributor has experienced the up-close-and-personnel venue that packs in the fans and brings plenty of noise. The Wisconsin trip certainly doesn't hurt their preparation, but this will be different.

--Will Iowa continue to wreak havoc via turnovers? It has an incredible 16-to-4 ratio in its favor. Penn State isn't overemphasizing ball security this week, but that's because it always focuses on it. That said, it will take on special meaning in this one.

--In that vein, should we be viewing this Iowa team more through the lenses of what happened against Colorado State? The Rams only had one turnover at Kinnick and actually led into the third quarter before the Hawkeyes pulled away and won by 10 despite just 278 yards of total offense. It's the lone game this year that didn't feature multiple turnovers by a Hawkeyes opponent.

--Is Noah Cain going to lead the Nittany Lions in attempts and yards, or will someone else earn the majority of the snaps, such as perhaps John Lovett? Either way, will the run game be able to operate at a high enough level on the road?

--How many points will actually be scored in this game? A defensive slugfest is expected, with a total in the low 40s and some predictive models suggesting no more than two touchdowns apiece.

--Which one of these programs will emerge as the Big Ten's top Playoff hope to date? Many games remain, of course, and this one won't even play a huge role in the Big Ten conference division races, but it will keep one side in the top-five and drop the other out while leaving no additional room for error.

We've pretty much covered all the ground that needs to be covered so far this week: Eliminate turnovers and risky plays, move the chains on third down, establish a ground game that can close the contest out if needed, and take as few penalties as possible.

All of that goes for every game, of course, but they're areas that are being especially pointed to this week ahead of such a pivotal showdown.

One area that gets outside of those is this: Make the tight ends an impact part of the passing game. We've seen Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson, and Tyler Warren all take advantage of soft contact at the line of scrimmage, which allows them to get open quickly and turn for a Sean Clifford bullet that can be caught with lots of open running room. To me, those kinds of plays can both open up the offense against Iowa's Cover 2 and force the Hawkeyes efense to do some things it doesn't want to do. It won't deviate much from its time-tested plan, of course, but using those guys in various ways, both as blockers and receivers, is one way Penn State can gain a big edge from this point of view.

Finally, and this is an obvious one, but a slow start cannot be in the cards. That doesn't mean multiple first quarter scores are needed, but the attack has to at least move enough early to let Jordan Stout flip the field, at a minimum.

All told though, it can be boiled down to this: Keep the defense from having to play short field football and be efficient, which will lead to enough points to win.

Much like the offense, we've been over what the defense must do in this one for multiple days now. Penalties would be the biggest culprit, as it's hard to see how Iowa's offense will be able to find open space to run or matchup with the Lions' back seven in the passing game for four quarters without injuries and/or ejections.

So, let's focus on a specific position group that must thrive. For me, it's the defensive line.

Watching Penn State defensive tackle PJ Mustipher battle with Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum is going to be really fun, but collectively, John Scott Jr.'s front four must consistently pressure Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras, whose numbers dip considerably without a clean pocket. That goes for almost every quarterback, of course, but there's not much alternative for the Iowa passing game if he's constantly under pressure. It seemingly only works when he has plenty of time to operate. So, if Mustipher, Arnold Ebiketie, Derrick Tangelo, Nick Tarburton, and Jesse Luketa can live in the backfield, it's going to make what already looks like a long day for the Hawkeyes offense even long.

Ultimately, Penn State has one of the nation's top statistical defenses for a reason, and an undeniable part of that is the fact that it hasn't exactly faced a murder's row of offenses. It won't on Saturday, either, which makes playing sound, assignment-filled, gap responsible football the key to victory on Brent Pry's side of the ball.

It's that time of the week again:

Penn State wins by not trying to be perfect, because that can lead to costly mistakes, but rather via crisp execution on both sides of the ball. That means more touchbacks and fair catches, no missed placement kicks, no interceptions or fumbles, and being 60 percent or better on third down conversions. The 2019 matchup can be a fine example of what it takes. Winning at Iowa isn't always going to be pretty, but it doesn't have to be. Survive and advance is the name of this game, and the Lions have the playmakers, game wreckers, and game plan to do it.

Penn State loses if Petras has all day to throw, back Tyler Goodson finds running lanes on simple cutbacks, and the Lions lose all three of the penalty, turnovers, and time of possession battles. In other words, it would take an out-of-character performance compared to the first five games of the year to drop this one.

There's usually not much left to say at this point of any game week, but more than any other up to this point, the talking points have been hammered home by both sides leading up to kickoff.

Penn State should like its chances to improve to 6-0, but this will be no cakewalk. It almost never is in Iowa City. But, yet again, if the Lions are the team many think they are, this game must end with a victory. All signs point to that being the case before the game clock winds for the first time.

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