Penn State's wait to finally play again in the NCAA Tournament is nearly over. This evening at 9:55 p.m. EST, the No. 10 seeded Nittany Lions will take on the No. 7 ranked Texas A&M Aggies.
The Nittany Lions enter the tournament winners in eight of their last 10 including picking up three wins in the Big Ten Tournament before narrowly falling to Purdue in the Big Ten Championship. The Aggies might be even hotter than the Nittany Lions, winning 10 of their last 12 since the beginning of February and winning 17 of 19 since the turn of the calendar year. They were however blown out in the SEC Tournament semifinals by Alabama 82-63.
Here's everything you need to know about tonight's matchup.
HOW TO WATCH / BETTING LINES:
WHAT: No.10 Penn State Nittany Lions (22-13) vs No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (25-9)
WHERE: Wells Fargo Arena (Des Moines, IA) - Capacity: 16,110
WHEN: Thursday, March 16, 2023 - 9:55 p.m.
TELEVISION: TBS (Brian Anderson (play-by-play), Jim Jackson (analyst), LaForce (courtside)
RADIO: Penn State Sports Network (103.7 FM & 1450 AM) - Steve Jones (play-by-play) & Dick Jerardi (analyst)
SPREAD: Texas A&M -3.0
MONEYLINE: Texas A&M -165 / Penn State +140
OVER/UNDER: 135
ESPN ANALYTICS: Texas A&M 63.5% / Penn State 36.5%
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As you can see, the two teams are reasonably matched. The Aggies rose throughout the rankings since the beginning of 23 as noted above winning 17 of their last 19 games, with wins over multiple high-level teams such as Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Alabama. Notably, the Nittany Lions have been strong on neutral courts this year while Texas A&M has shown to be beatable away from College Station.
Let's take a look now at both teams and the key figures to know.
The Aggies offensively are not going to blow you away. They average 73.2 points per game but make just 43.5% of their shots including just 49.0% of their shots from inside the perimeter, from the outside, they're not too much better hitting 32.8% of their shots. If the Nittany Lions go on a long scoring run or get hot from deep, it immediately shifts in the Nittany Lions' favor as Texas A&M hasn't shown the ability to hit shots at a consistent enough rate to go blow-by-blow with Penn State.
Defensively, the Aggies are very good, only allowing 66.2 points per game this season. They suffocate the opposition, especially within the perimeter, keeping opponents to a 47.4% shooting percentage from close and mid-range. When it comes to guarding three-pointers, they are beatable but are still quite good, keeping opponents to just a 32.3% shooting percentage from long range.
They're great when it comes to defensive rebounds as well which won't change Penn State's game plan too much as the Nittany Lions are a program that doesn't value the defensive rebounds as much as getting back into a strong defensive position and preventing fastbreak opportunities. Additionally, the Aggies will turnover the ball quite a bit, averaging 12.4 turnovers a game.
There's no denying it, Penn State's odds of winning on Thursday likely lay mostly on the shoulders of Jaden Pickett. That being said, if the Nittany Lions can continue quality production from Andrew Funk and Seth Lundy with Cam Wynter making timely shots as well, they'll be in good shape.
For Texas A&M, guard Wade Taylor IV is the player to watch and is the one most likely to take over a game. If Penn State can keep him in check this season, their chances of winning go up dramatically. They can't however forget about Tyrece Radford either as Radford has been phenomenal as of late, averaging 14.4 points over his last 16 games. While Taylor and Radford lead the way, the entire Aggies lineup is liable to get hot at any moment which makes them such a tough matchup for anyone they face.
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