The Penn State Nittany Lions on Tuesday will take on the Boise State Broncos in the 2024 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl as part of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. Experts and bookmakers across the country alike the Nittany Lions' chances with the Big Ten runner-ups as a double-digit favorite.
But what does Penn State need to do to ensure victory on Tuesday? Happy Valley Insider offers three keys to victory below.
1. Try and slow down Ashton Jeanty
You can try to slow down Ashton Jeanty but it's unlikely you'll ever truly stop him. This season, The Heisman runner-up has totaled nearly 2,500 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns in 13 games. So far this season, no one has been able to stop Jeanty. The fewest yards he's been kept to this season was 128 yards against UNLV in late October. The Rebels kept him to just 3.9 yards per carry in that game. When the two teams met again earlier this month, Jeanty had the final laugh with 32 carries for 209 yards, an average of 6.5 yards per carry.
That being said, this will be by far the best front seven Boise State has played all season. The Nittany Lions have one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 100.4 yards per game. Nine days ago against SMU, the Nittany Lions dominated the Mustangs' rushing attack to the tune of 36 carries for 58 yards.
If the Nittany Lions are going to slow down Jeanty, they're going to have to play fundamental and sound defense throughout Tuesday's matchup. They'll also have to be ready to be physical for all four quarters. This season, no running back has forced more missed tackles than Jeanty with 125, he's the only running back in the country with over 100 missed tackles this season. Furthermore, he has 1,700 yards this season after contact and is averaging 5.42 yards per carry after contact.
Penn State at times has struggled with tackling, with their missed tackle rate just around 20%.
To make things more difficult for the Nittany Lions, Jeanty and Boise State as a whole are going to be fresh off three weeks of rest. Which could be huge, to say the least for a tailback that totaled nearly 350 carries in the regular season.
2. Don't allow the Boise State defense to create chaos
Boise State's defense isn't a world-beater defense, their secondary is quite weak. But their defense is tremendous at creating chaos. The Broncos' defensive line this season has totaled 51 sacks, the second most in college football this season only behind Ole Miss. Boise State has also created 104 tackles for loss this season, the fifth most in college football, and is creating 8.00 tackles for loss per game. Notably, the Nittany Lions are one of the best teams in the country in preventing tackles for loss with just 52 tackles for loss allowed in 14 games, an average of 3.71 TFLs per game.
Notably, the one agent of chaos that the Broncos are average at creating is turnovers. Through 13 games, Boise State has just 15 turnovers forced with eight fumble recoveries and seven interceptions.
3. Get Drew Allar into a rhythm early, can a second wide receiver emerge?
While Penn State will likely try to get the run game going early on, it will also be crucial for the Nittany Lions to get Drew Allar into a rhythm as well. The Broncos have one of the worst pass defenses in the country especially amongst College Football Playoff teams, allowing 246.8 yards per game this season.
The Nittany Lions' passing attack this season has been better than most from the outside would likely think, with Drew Allar averaging 215 passing yards per game, the team as a whole is averaging 238.6 yards per game.
The ultimate question for the Nittany Lions is who could potentially step up in the passing attack. Tyer Warren will be one candidate and Harrison Wallace III has been a reliable pass cathcer for the most part this season.
But could a potential third option emerge for the Nittany Lions? That remains to be seen.
If the Nittany Lions are going to make a run for a national championship, they'll likely need one more receiver to emerge over the remainder of the playoffs. With a favorable matchup on Tuesday against Boise State's secondary, the Fiesta Bowl could be a great opportunity for a second receiver to emerge for the Nittany Lions as they attempt to make a run at a national championship.
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