This Saturday, the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Minneapolis, Minnesota to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Nittany Lions enter the matchup hoping to keep their College Football Playoff hopes in strong standing while the Golden Gophers hope to rebound from a 26-19 loss to Rutgers two weeks ago.
With kickoff just a few days away, Penn State is an 11.5-point favorite for Saturday's 3:30 p.m. kickoff at Huntington Bank Stadium.
"It will be a challenge," Penn State head coach James Franklin said about his program's matchup on Saturday. "It's a tough place to go play, beautiful stadium they built a couple of years ago. They got really good support. We're going to have to go and play well to find a way to get a win on the road here in the Big Ten."
But who will have the advantage in this matchup? Let's take a look below.
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Penn State's passing offense vs Minnesota's pass defense
Starting with the Penn State passing attack against Minnseota's pass defense. This should be a good matchup. The Golden Gophers this year have a good secondary, allowing just 183.2 yards per game, that number has risen quite a bit over recent weeks but it's still a strong unit overall.
The Gophers this season have allowed just 6.2 yards per passing play which ranks 24th in the nation and have kept opposing quarterbacks to a 60.7% completion percentage which ranks 60th nationally.
Early in the season against weaker passing attacks such as Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Rhode Island, they were very good as one would expect. They have had several very strong performances, keeping USC and Illinois to 200 and 226 passing yards respectively. But have had some clunkers as well, allowing 293 yards to UCLA and 323 yards to Maryland. They also allowed 240 yards through the air last time out against Rutgers, despite keeping Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis to just a 51.5% completion percentage.
One area that the Golden Gophers secondary is excellent at is picking the ball off. Through 10 games this season, the Gophers have posted 16 interceptions including five from freshman safety Koi Perich.
That being said, this will be the most talented quarterback the Gophers have faced this season Drew Allar. The junior quarterback for the Nittany Lions has been outstanding, posting a 71.9% completion percentage for 2,253 yards and 16 touchdowns while throwing just five interceptions.
However, the Nittany Lions wide receiver unit this season is once again a point of weakness which makes this matchup more interesting than it should be. Harrison Wallace III is the only reliable receiver with 31 receptions for 533 yards and three touchdowns, that's not of course counting star tight end Tyler Warren, which we'll talk about in a moment.
Beyond Wallace, Penn State's wide receiver room this season has a total of 42 receptions. The second most receptions by a Nittany Lions receiver is just 15, that being from Liam Clifford.
Now going back to Tyler Warren, he's the X-factor here and why Penn State has the advantage. The future John Mackey Award winner has been virtually impossible to cover this season, recording 67 receptions for 808 yards and five touchdowns.
This is bad news for the Gophers, as their linebacker unit has struggled in pass coverage this season. While they've only allowed one touchdown reception, the trio of Cody Lindenberg, Devon Williams, and Maverick Baranowski has allowed 43 receptions on 52 targets for 301 yards. If the Gophers allow Tyler Warren to get open consistently enough on Saturday, he will certainly make them pay.
Overall, don't expect Penn State's passing attack to have a big day but I think thanks to the talent of Drew Allar, Tyler Warren, and Trey Wallace, the Nittany Lions will be able to find quality success through the air. A similar output from the Washington game for Allar (20-for-28, 220 yards, 1 TD) would be a good baseline for Saturday's game. If Penn State can get that similar output, then the Nittany Lions should be well-positioned for a win.
VERDICT: Penn State's passing attack
Penn State's rushing offense vs Minnesota's run defense
There has been a narrative it seems on a national level that this Penn State rushing attack hasn't been overly successful this season, which is a bit of an odd narrative.
Outside of a four-game stretch that included tough days against UCLA, USC, and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions rushing attack has been very good this season. In those three games, the Nittany Lions averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and totaled 323 yards on 83 carries. Not terrible performances but not great performances by any means either.
In their other seven games this season, the Nittany Lions have 5.7 yards per carry with 292 carries for 1,677 yards. Since the loss to Ohio State on November 2, the Nittany Lions have had great success on the ground. Against Washington and Purdue, Penn State had a combined 74 carries for 500 yards, an average of 6.7 yards per carry.
Most notably, over the past two weeks, Nicholas Singleton who was banged up for much of the previous month has looked healthy and closer to the explosive running back that everyone expected to see this fall. After averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and totaling 90 yards against USC, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, Singleton has 85 yards on 14 carries over the last two weeks for the Nittany Lions.
We of course have to mention Kaytron Allen as well who enters week 13 with 139 carries for 654 yards and five touchdowns.
On the other side, Minnesota's run defense this season has had some very strong performances but has also struggled against some of the better-rushing attacks they've faced this season. While they kept the likes of UCLA, Nevada, Maryland, and Rutgers to 110 yards or less they did allow 147 yards on the ground to North Carolina, 155 to Michigan, 172 to USC, and 272 to Iowa.
It is worth noting their three performances against Iowa, Michigan, and USC all came in three weeks. Since then, the Gophers have been very good against the run, allowing just 375 rushing yards on 119 carries.
However, this will be by far the best backfield and offensive line that the Gophers have faced since their matchups against Iowa and Michigan. While one shouldn't expect Penn State's Singleton and Allen to have a field day against the Hawkeyes, the Nittany Lions should be able to move the ball on the ground in the game. Perhaps not for the 6.7 yards per carry they've sustained over the last two weeks but closer to around the 3.8 - 4.4 yards per carry mark. If they're able to do that and find a way to break off some bigger runs throughout the game, the Nittany Lions will once again be well-suited to come out on top on Saturday.
VERDICT: Penn State's rushing offense
Minnesota's passing offense vs Penn State's pass defense
Penn State fans should not underestimate this Minnesota passing attack. It's not a passing attack that will blow you away by any means but New Hampshire quarterback Max Brosmer has posted similar stats to Drew Allar this season. In 10 games played, the senior quarterback has completed 67.1% of his passes for 2,251 yards and 14 touchdowns with four turnovers.
After starting the season off a little bit slow, Brosmer has excelled since the beginning of October, completing 68% of his passes for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns in five games. He has not thrown an interception since September 28 against Michigan.
As a whole, Brosmer and the Gophers are averaging 220.1 yards per game through the air this season which is around the national average. However, they're not overly explosive, averaging just 6.6 yards per pass and just 26 passing plays of 20+ yards and four of 30+ yards this season.
The Gophers passing attack also features one of the best wide receivers the Nittany Lions will have faced all seasons in Daniel Jackson. The Kansas native this season has 63 receptions for 712 yards and three touchdowns, a great follow-up to a 2023 campaign in which he posted 59 receptions for 831 yards and eight touchdowns.
Senior wide receiver Elijah Spencer who transferred to Minnesota prior to the 2023 season has also flourished this season with 39 receptions for 382 yards and four touchdowns. The aforementioned Darius Taylor is also a threat out of the backfield with 45 receptions for 312 yards and two scores.
Minnesota's pass protection this season has been good, allowing just 83 pressures in 10 games. While Max Brosmer has been sacked 23 times this season, Pro Football Focus only contributes 13 of those to the offensive line.
Penn State's pass defense this season has been among the nation's best, allowing just 174 yards per game and 6.0 yards per attempt. It's a pass defense that kept the likes of West Virginia to 161 yards, Ohio State to 182 yards, Illinois to 185 yards, and USC to 220 yards. The most yards given up by the Nittany Lions remains to be the 254 yards allowed to Bowling Green.
The Nittany Lions' pass defense goes well beyond their secondary as well. The Nittany Lions' pass rush while not as dominant in previous seasons has been very good in 2024 with 180 total quarterback pressures and 25 sacks which is tied for 37th nationally.
Minnesota will likely have their moments through the air but if Ohio State struggled to move the ball through the air against the Nittany Lions, I'm not sure how Minnesota will be able to find enough success to win this game, at least on paper.
VERDICT: Penn State's pass defense
Minnesota's rushing offense vs Penn State's run defense
It's been a tough season for Minnesota's rushing attack, averaging just 103.3 yards per contest this season. Two weeks ago against a Rutgers defense that has mostly struggled against the run, Minnesota was able to total just 35 yards on the ground and averaged 1.8 yards per carry.
Most of the Gophers' struggles on the ground this season can be drawn back to their offensive line which has struggled to get any sort of consistent push this season in blocking for the run. That being said, despite those struggles, star running back Darius Taylor has been phenomenal with 136 carries for 672 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Nittany Lions' run defense this season has been among the nation's elite, allowing just 98.7 yards per game which ranks fifth nationally and 3.2 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions have only allowed over 100 yards rushing three times this season and over 3.2 yards per carry three times.
Interestingly enough, that century mark is the magic number for Minnesota in 2024. When the Gophers surpass 100 yards on the ground, they're a perfect 5-0 this season. When they have under 100 yards, they're 1-4.
Notably, against the three best run defenses they've faced this season in Michigan, Iowa, and UCLA, the Gophers struggled mightily to move the ball on the ground, totaling just 158 yards on 70 carries, an average of 2.2 yards per carry.
VERDICT: PENN STATE'S RUN DEFENSE
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both special teams units this season have been mostly mediocre as a whole. Both programs have mostly reliable kickers.
The Nittany Lions' Ryan Barker since taking over in October is 8-for-9 in field goal opportunities while Minnesota's Dragan Kesich has recovered after a tough start and has made nine of his last 10 kicks.
Both program's punters have been solid, with Penn State's Riley Thompson averaging 42.7 yards per punt while Minnesota's Mark Crawford is averaging 43.4 this season.
In the return game, Penn State's success has been minimal especially in their punt return game while for Minnesota Koi Perich has been the most successful return man, averaging 18.8 yards per kick return and 12.9 yards per punt return. The Nittany Lions' special teams will have to be careful with Perich on Saturday.
VERDICT: Toss Up
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