8/29/2022 football Edit

Penn State vs Purdue Betting Update: Line movement and trends

Dylan Callaghan-Croley • Happy Valley Insider

Editor

It's officially game week for Penn State as the Nittany Lions are set to talk on the Purdue Boilermakers in just three days at Ross Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. A few weeks ago, the Nittany Lions opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the Boilermakers.

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Odds update:

Since then, while the line has changed slightly in overall odds, the Nittany Lions continue to hold steady as a 3.5-point favorite over the Boilermakers. The spread line currently sits at -110 for the Nittany Lions while the Nittany Lions are a -177 favorite on the money line, while Purdue is currently a +145 underdog. The over/under for the matchup is currently at 54.5.

Notable trends:

While the betting odds are quite close, the trends for both of the two programs dating back to the past several seasons favorite the Nittany Lions. Of course, with it being a new season, trends are hard to use as a tool but are still notable.

Spread/Moneyline trends:

That being said, Penn State is winners of each of their last nine games against the Boilermakers dating back to 2005 and has won seven of those nine games by double-digits. The public appears to believe that the Nittany Lions will continue that streak with 64% of the bets so far in favor of the Nittany Lions.

Over/Under trends:

Additionally, 71% of the public believes the total of 54.5 points will go under. Last season, 10 of Penn State's 13 games hit the under including six of their last seven games. Purdue on the other hand had the under hit in eight of their 13 games played.

With the Boilermakers' losing several key receivers on offense and historically not having a strong rushing attack, it will be intriguing to see if quarterback Aidan O'Connell will be able to have the same amount of success he had a season ago. The lack of those strong partnerships from a year ago combined with the Nittany Lions' entering the season with one of the country's best secondaries on paper, makes this an intriguing matchup to watch and one that could ultimately decide the over/under.

Favorite/Underdog trends:

As a favorite last Penn State was 5-3 against the spread while Purdue was 4-3 against the spread as an underdog. In terms of straight-up betting, Penn State was 6-2 when a favorite last season and 1-1 as a favorite on the road, Purdue was 4-3 overall as an underdog and 1-1 as an underdog at home.