Penn State-Wisconsin Matchups: Who will have the X's and O's edge?

Penn State is a 5.5-point underdog ahead of Saturday's 2021 season opener at Wisconsin, which suggests that the Badgers have an edge at numerous spots across the field ahead of game day.

But is that really the case?

It's true that the Nittany Lions will have a few new starters at key spots, while depth is a concern at other positions. But the home team this weekend also has plenty of question marks it must answer once the first kickoff is in the air.

Let's take a closer look at what to expect when PSU has the ball and what to watch for when it does not.

Wisconsin will once again roll with a 3-4 base defense, and the Badgers feel good about both their starters and backups at the linebacker position.

Many believe that Wisconsin has a very strong back line on defense, as well, with free safety Scotty Nelson back after he snared three interceptions in 2020, and three other experienced seniors returning to the secondary.

Inside linebackers Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal are back after leading the Wisconsin defense in tackles a year ago, as is standout outside linebacker Nick Herbig, which means that the only spot where newer players will be taking on a bigger role comes up front and at the other outside linebacker spot.

Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has no problem sending pressure, but Penn State can gain an advantage if it's able to exploit the Badgers' three-man defensive line with stunts and other changes at scrimmage that could both open up holes in the run game and also give Sean Clifford more time to find his receivers in the passing attack.

Penn State, of course, returns not only Clifford but also Noah Cain and a strong stable of backs, Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington out wide, Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson at tight end, and four of five offensive line starters. The combination of experience, in addition to new coordinator Mike Yurcich's coaching style and game planning, can elevate the Lions above and beyond the Badgers' defense. But as we've said multiple times this offseason, it really all comes down to how Clifford plays.

That said, if Penn State can establish its ground game early and keep the Badgers' linebackers guessing, it will go a long way toward opening things up later in the game, and we see that happening.

EDGE: PENN STATE

Many might say that the biggest difference with this Wisconsin team compared to previous versions under Paul Chryst is that the program now has a quarterback it can trust to come through in the clutch with Graham Mertz directing the attack.

That might be true, but to me, the biggest surprise is that the Badgers enter the season without a bell-cow running back.

Jalen Berger led the Wisconsin rushing attack last season, but he's been leapfrogged on the Week 1 depth chart by Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi, who is a junior standing 5-foot-11, 204 pounds. Both should play, but it's the Florida native who will get the call to run first behind a typically enormous Badgers front five, and tight end Jake Ferguson figures to be the go-to target again this fall, while receiver Danny Davis will step into a much larger role, too.

We could keep listing names and positions here on both sides, but this matchup is determined by a pretty simple equation: Will Penn State's stout secondary and front-seven talent, like Brandon Smith, Curtis Jacobs, Arnold Ebiketie, and PJ Mustipher, both make Mertz uncomfortable and get enough help from their many teammates who are either starting or playing a big reserve role for the first time? Or, will the Badgers' front push PSU around and allow Mertz all day to throw, which he has shown is a pretty good recipe for success in the past?

This is a really hard call, but until I see Penn State's defense in action, I'm siding with arguably the better quarterback in the game and a well-oiled attack. It's close, but the home team has at least a small advantage on paper.

EDGE: WISCONSIN

--Wisconsin lists Colin Larsh as the starting kicker. He was just 5 of 7 last year. Andy Vujnovich is back as the punter, and the return game didn't offer much to write home about last year. We'll give the special teams edge to Penn State.

--James Franklin has topped Chryst twice over their respective tenures in Madison and State College, and both assistant coaching staffs are full of very strong position coaches and coordinators. The wins push us to give the Nittany Lions an edge here, too.

--It's interesting that Joe Tippmann beat out Kayden Lyles for the first-team center job. I would still expect the Badgers will play more than just five offensive linemen, and Penn State will, too.

This game has all the makings of a truly terrific Week 1 clash that will obviously leave one side with terrific postseason potential while the other will be on thinner ice with 11 games left and one loss already on the ledger.

We have yet to see much from both sides from a starting and backup perspective, but the betting board says that there is a gap between the two Big Ten title contenders, and we don't see it as quite as big as the spread suggests.

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