Predicting each match in the Penn State vs. Ohio State wrestling dual
Penn State wrestling makes its return to the Bryce Jordan Center on Friday night after a year away to host rival Ohio State for one of the marquee duals of the season.
While the Buckeyes aren't as strong as they've been in recent years, they still boast a talented lineup and one that should provide for quite the show in front a raucous Nittany Lions' crowd.
Wrestling recruiting writer Lex Knapp and I have once again taken a swing at breaking down all the action for you.
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 10 Malik Heinselman |
No. 8 Drew Hildebrandt |
LEX KNAPP.....
Right out of the gate we have a fun one at 125 pounds. Hildebrandt has been a godsend for Penn State, doing a great job of filling a huge hole in this Nittany Lion lineup. Heinselman is always a tough out, and will certainly be gunning to get his team on the board first. This is undoubtedly a toss-up, but Hildebrandt has gotten better by the week. I like him to win a tight one.
THE PICK: Drew Hildebrandt by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Heinselman has gotten better with each year he's wrestled at Ohio State, a testament to the hard work he's put in to become a full-size 125-pounder, which is a crazy thing to be writing. He's probably got more offense than Hildebrandt on his feet and is the better scrambler, but Hildebrandt's mat wrestling is a game changer and I think it decides this one. Like Lex mentioned, it should be close.
THE PICK: Drew Hildebrandt by decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
Dylan Koontz |
No. 1 Roman Bravo-Young |
LEX KNAPP.....
Not too much to say about this one. RBY is going to be an overwhelming favorite, and should not have much trouble getting bonus points.
THE PICK: Roman Bravo-Young by technical fall
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
There's no showman in NCAA wrestling quite like RBY. In his final dual at the BJC, in front of a huge crowd and in the slick white singlets? This one won't be close.
THE PICK: Roman Bravo-Young by decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 20 Dylan D'Emilio |
No. 1 Nick Lee |
LEX KNAPP.....
Dylan D’Emilio has been very solid for the Buckeyes in his first two years as a starter. He has given tough matches to ranked opponents, including a win over Pitts’ No. 17 Cole Matthews. Nick Lee is still going to be heavily favored here, despite how tough D’Emilio is. Lee shouldn’t have a problem picking up a win, but D’Emilio will fight hard to avoid bonus points.
THE PICK: Nick Lee by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Yes, Lee is coming over a big win over Jaydin Eierman. But I didn't feel like he wrestled the best he could in that match almost made a big mistake to cost himself the match late. This time, I expect to Lee to be focused and with a point to prove. He'll get bonus for the third time in three meetings with D'Emilio
THE PICK: Nick Lee by major decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 2 Sammy Sasso |
No. 18 Beau Bartlett |
LEX KNAPP.....
Bartlett is always a tough out, but Sammy Sasso is going to be a big favorite here. Sasso’s lone loss this season is against Yianni Diakomihalis, but aside from that loss, Sasso has been dominant this season. These two met last season, with Sasso winning a 5 – 3 decision. Bartlett can certainly fend off the major decision, but Sasso is dangerous on top. If Bartlett cannot weather the storm early, Sasso is capable of finding bonus points.
THE PICK: Sasso by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Last Friday's match against Max Murin was the first time that I felt Bartlett's hesitance to pull the trigger cost himself a real shot to the win match. In fact, I'd argue that it was Bartlett's worst showing this year and perhaps by a large margin. I think he cleans it up this time around against Sasso, but it won't be enough to take out the returning national finalist.
THE PICK: Sasso by decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 33 Jashon Hubbard |
Terrell Barraclough OR Tony Negron |
LEX KNAPP.....
With Hildebrandt filling the 125 slot, the one hole remaining in this Penn State lineup is at 157-lbs. Credit to Barraclough, he has done a good job of minimizing bonus points when he is an underdog. Jashon Hubbard has five losses this season, but four of them are to ranked opponents. Hubbard is the favorite, but Barraclough should be able to keep it close.
THE PICK: Hubbard by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
I felt Barraclough wrestled well against Kaleb Young a week ago, he just couldn't finish shots. If that's the version of Barraclough we're going to get, then he's the best option at 157 and could push Hubbard. This one should be close and I'm going to go out on a limb and call the upset.
THE PICK: Barraclough by decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 4 Carson Kharchla |
No. 11 Brady Berge |
LEX KNAPP.....
Penn State fans are certainly happy to see Brady Berge back with the team and in the lineup, but Berge is going to have a tall order here with Carson Kharchla. He had an outstanding redshirt season in 2020, before medical redshirting in 2021. It is clear that Kharchla has not missed a beat, with a 17 – 1 record. His lone loss is to returning national champion, Shane Griffith of Stanford. Berge is going to have a tough time here, but he can help his team out by holding Kharchla to a decision.
THE PICK: Kharchla by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
To put it plainly, Berge got downright bullied by Alex Marinelli a week ago. I saw some people upset with the "lack of effort" but that wasn't what I saw from Berge. It looked to me like a wrestled who was outgunned physically and there wasn't much he could have done to make up for it. That won't be the case from a sheer horsepower perspective this time around, but I do think Kharchla is on another level from Berge and gets the win.
THE PICK: Kharchla by decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 7 Ethan Smith |
No. 1 Carter Starocci |
LEX KNAPP.....
A red hot Carter Starocci will take on returning All-American, Ethan Smith, who is on a bit of a losing streak. Smith dropped his last two matches, which includes a loss to Michael Kemerer, who Starocci beat last weekend in overtime. Smith is going to put up a fight, but I like Starocci to pick up a one-sided decision.
THE PICK: Carter Starocci by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Starocci went to war last week, gutting out a 3-2 decision in TB2 over Michael Kemerer. He'll have to battle again in this one against Smith, who always seems to cause elite guys trouble but never can quite get over the hump. I think Starocci's ability in the top position really helps him separate in this one and limits Smith's chances of pulling the upset.
THE PICK: Carter Starocci by decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 6 Kaleb Romero |
No. 1 Aaron Brooks |
LEX KNAPP.....
Kaleb Romero has looked very good since moving up to 184-lbs this year. His only lost this season is to Michigan’s No. 2 Myles Amine. Unfortunately for Romero, Aaron Brooks has been nothing short of spectacular this year. Brooks is 12–0, finding bonus points in two-thirds of his matches, with wins over several top-10 opponents. Romero will be added to that list of ranked wins for Brooks, but likely keeps Brooks to a decision.
THE PICK: Aaron Brooks by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Like Smith, Romero is really, really stingy against top competition, but never seems to be able to get over the hump. Romero has elite defense, but his lack of a dependable shot always seems to rear its head in these sorts of matches. Meanwhile, Brooks always seems to find a way to get the job done. There's no reason to believe that won't be the case this time around.
THE PICK: Aaron Brooks by decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 21 Gavin Hoffman |
No. 2 Max Dean |
LEX KNAPP.....
There is no question that the Nittany Lions have a national title contender at 197-lbs. Max Dean has been on fire this year, with several ranked wins. Dean has a 13 – 1 record, with his lone loss coming at the hands of a red hot Cam Caffey. Gavin Hoffman has seen his fair share of highly ranked opponents, as well. However, Hoffman has not been nearly as successful. Hoffman is going to make Dean work, but he will have his hands full with a battle-tested Max Dean.
THE PICK: Max Dean by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Max Dean has perhaps the best gas tank in the country at this weight and is a hammer on top. Gavin Hoffman, meanwhile, struggles with his gas tank and on bottom. I'm no expert, but that seems like a recipe for disaster. I'm going to pick the major here, but a pin wouldn't surprise me in the least.
THE PICK: Max Dean by major decision
| OHIO STATE | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 13 Tate Orndorff |
No. 5 Greg Kerkvliet |
LEX KNAPP.....
The match will finish off with a rematch from the 7th place bout at the 2021 NCAA tournament. Greg Kerkvliet handled Tate Orndorff with no problem, winning an 11 – 3 major decision. After coming off a loss to Iowa’s Tony Cassioppi, I expect Kerkvliet to come out looking to make a statement. Orndorff is a dangerous opponent, and has big move ability, but it is tough to throw someone as big as Kerkvliet.
THE PICK: Greg Kerkvliet by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Kerkvliet's decision making against Anthony Cassioppi a week ago probably cost him any shot he had of winning the match. That's something he knows and the coaches know. On his feet, and when he's avoiding upper-body situations, Kerkvliet is as good as or better than anyone in the country not named Gable Steveson. I expect to see a re-energized and focused Kerkvliet on the mat on Friday.
THE PICK: Greg Kerkvliet by mahor decision
| WRITER | PENN STATE | OHIO STATE |
|---|---|---|
|
LEX KNAPP |
23 |
9 |
|
CLAY SAUERTIEG |
29 |
6 |
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