Prediciting each match in the Iowa - Penn State Wrestling dual
All the waiting is over. The talking is done. The time to put up or shut up has arrived.
After months of anticipation, including twists and turns for both programs, Penn State wrestling heads to Iowa City tonight to take on defending national champion Iowa.
The Hawkeyes, of course, took that mantle after nearly a decade of Penn State dominance (plus a cameo appearance from Ohio State) and planned to run it back in 2022, returning their entire lineup in hopes of repeating. Wear and tear have caught up with them, however, while continued growth and incoming transfers have seen the Nittany Lions rise to No. 1 in the nation yet again. Now, they'll both have the chance to settle it on the mat.
Nittany Nation wrestling recruiting writer Lex Knapp and I have gotten together to bring you our breakdown of how we see the dual playing out.
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 9 Drake Ayala OR Jesse Ybarra |
No. 8 Drew Hildebrandt |
LEX KNAPP.....
Drake Ayala has done a great job filling in for the injured Spencer Lee. There has been a few rumors that Ayala may be injured, and not wrestling tonight. Regardless of who wrestles for Iowa, Drew Hildebrandt is my pick in this one. Hildebrandt did a great job of giving No. 1 Nick Suriano everything he could handle last week, and is looking better each time he takes the mat.
THE PICK: Drew Hildebrandt
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Like Lex said, Ayala has been impressive in an emergency role for the Hawkeyes. The true freshman looks like a title contender, but has slowed down a bit in recent matches as the tape gets out on his pace and style. Then there's the injury concern. On the other hand, Hildebrandt seems to be getting closer and closer to his All-American form from last year with each passing match and he's seen just about everything in his five-year career. This match feels like a must win for the hosts for momentum purposes, but give me the wily veteran in this one.
THE PICK: Drew Hildebrandt by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 3 Austin DeSanto / Cullan Schriever |
No. 1 Roman Bravo-Young |
LEX KNAPP.....
If Iowa wants to have any shot of winning this dual, they are going to need Austin DeSanto to not just wrestle, but pull of the upset. Roman Bravo-Young has had DeSanto’s number the last two seasons, winning the last three matches these two have wrestled. There seems to always be a Nittany Lion that silences Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and I think RBY does that here.
THE PICK: Roman Bravo-Young by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
The first couple times these two met, I wasn't sure if RBY would be able to solve DeSanto. One slight adjustment later and he appears to have figured him out, putting up three straight wins, with the last two coming in fairly convincing fashion. Now, it's DeSanto who has to the figuring out and adjusting, and I'm just not convinced that's something he has in his tool kit. In the Big Ten final last year, DeSanto was so threatened by the cradle that he barely even attacked. This time, I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up in the very same head-inside position that led to the cradle.
THE PICK: Roman Bravo-Young by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 2 Jaydin Eierman |
No. 1 Nick Lee |
LEX KNAPP.....
This match alone is worth the price of admission (or subscription), as 2021 NCAA Champion, Nick Lee, and 2021 NCAA Runner-Up, Jaydin Eierman, put on two spectacular matches last season. Eierman won the Big Ten title match, but Nick Lee was victorious in the NCAA finals, with a 4–2 overtime win. Lee has looked as good as ever this season, where Eierman has not been the same dominant wrestler he was in 2021. This will likely come down to the wire, but Lee is wrestling too good right now not to pick him; especially with how tight some of Eierman’s matches have been lately.
THE PICK: Nick Lee by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
When he's been healthy, Nick Lee has looked dominant this season. Jaydin Eierman, however, has looked a bit lackluster. While that may not be the best evaluation tool, it's one of the best ones we have at this point. Eierman leads the series 2-1 all-time, but Lee has the most recent and most important victory. He appears on a mission this year and I'm not sure there's anything Eierman, or anyone, can do to stop it.
THE PICK: Nick Lee by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 10 Max Murin |
No. 15 Beau Bartlett |
LEX KNAPP.....
This is a big toss-up match for both teams, as it could put Penn State well out in front, or give Iowa the chance to creep back in. Both Bartlett and Murin are stingy wrestlers, who fight for every point. Murin does have a tendency to put himself in dangerous spots, that could be costly. It is not unlikely Bartlett pulls out the win, but both are very even on paper. When the match-up is this tight, I like the guy with more experience, in his home arena.
THE PICK: Max Murin by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Two remarkably similar wrestlers who keep good position and don't make many mistakes, I can't see this one being very high scoring. Murin somehow has a year of eligibility remaining after this year and has looked pretty solid and, for the first time in his college career, healthy this season, with no bulky brace. Bartlett has been up and down and has shown he can go with almost anyone at the weight, but that he won't pull away from anyone. i think a home crowd, maybe a couple stall calls, and the experience favor the Hawkeye in this one.
THE PICK: Max Murin by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 12 Kaleb Young |
Terrell Barraclough OR Tony Negron OR Luke Gardner |
LEX KNAPP.....
Penn State is going to be the underdog at 157-lbs, as both Terrell Barraclough and Tony Negron will have their hands full with the two-time All-American, Kaleb Young. Whoever takes the mat for Penn State, the message from the coaching staff will be the same: keep it to a decision. Avoiding bonus points here could be huge for the Nittany Lions.
THE PICK: Kaleb Young by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
I think it'll be Barraclough here for a pair of reasons. He gives the Nittany Lions more stingy defense, and he's not likely to run out of gas, meaning the odds he gives up bonus points are lesser, assuming he's sorted out some issues on bottom. The wildcard, however, is the re-addition of Luke Gardner to the roster. If Gardner's in wrestling shape, he could get the call. Young should win regardless of who he faces, but all three Penn State wrestlers need to avoid bonus.
THE PICK: Kaleb Young by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 5 Alex Marinelli |
No. 10 Brady Berge OR Creighton Edsell |
LEX KNAPP.....
Brady Berge has been a thorn in the Hawkeyes side for a couple of years now. Berge has had wins over Kaleb Young and former Hawkeye, Pat Lugo. However, this is Berge’s first time facing Alex Marinelli. Iowa is going to be relying heavily on “The Bull” to get them back into this match. Berge is a tough opponent, and this should be a great match, but I think Marinelli squeaks out a win.
THE PICK: Alex Marinelli by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Listen, I know Berge has looked really solid. And I know Marinelli has looked less than his typical, dominant regular season self. But I just don't see how Berge wins this one. Marinelli will have a significant size advantage and will hammer away at the head of Berge, leading to good scoring opportunities late. While Berge should be the quicker of the two, getting in on a leg and finishing are two different things.
THE PICK: Alex Marinelli by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 2 Michael Kemerer |
No. 1 Carter Starocci |
LEX KNAPP.....
This is a rematch from the 2021 NCAA finals, where Carter Starocci shocked Michael Kemerer with a 3–1 sudden victory win to claim the 174-lb title. Just like 141-lbs, Kemerer defeated Starocci at the Big Ten tournament, and did so handedly. Penn State managed to make the adjustments in the last match to turn a 7 – 2 loss into a 3 – 1 win. I think Iowa changes the tides, and Kemerer makes the adjustments to pull this out in a very tight match.
THE PICK: Michael Kemerer by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Kemerer dominated the first time these two met in the Big Ten finals in Happy Valley. The second time around, the match was about as tight as can with Starocci claiming the national championship. If Kemerer were healthy, I think I'd be giving him the nod here, but the brace on that shoulder looks mighty chunky. Starocci, meanwhile, has looked a bit shaky at times recently and struggled to really close out Logan Massa a week ago. I'm giving the nod here to the defending champ, but not particularly confidently.
THE PICK: Carter Starocci by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 17 Abe Assad |
No. 1 Aaron Brooks |
LEX KNAPP.....
Aaron Brooks has been one of college wrestling’s most dominant wrestlers this season. He has defeated three top five opponents this season, without ever getting in too much danger. Abe Assad is going to be looking to keep this to a decision, but I like Brooks to get the major.
THE PICK: Aaron Brooks by major decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
As Lex said, Brooks has just been on an absolute mission this year. When these two met in 2020, he won 7-3. Since then, I think he's continued to improve tenfold. Assad has also looked solid of late, beating Max Lyon of Purdue and Zac Braunagel of Illinois while taking Ohio State's Kaleb Romero to sudden victory a week ago. But Brooks is a different animal and, like Lex, I think he'll be hunting bonus, especially if it looks like it could be necessary to win the dual.
THE PICK: Aaron Brooks by major decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 3 Jacob Warner |
No. 2 Max Dean |
LEX KNAPP.....
Max Dean has a lot of tough matches in a short amount of time. Including tonight’s match with Jacob Warner, Dean will have wrestled the #3, #8, #10, and #13 in the country in his last four matches. Warner is going to give Dean everything he can handle, but it is hard to pick against Dean’s grit.
THE PICK: Max Dean by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Welcome to the Big Ten, Max Dean. The Cornell transfer, up a weight, has been through the ringer of late and had passed every test before last week's loss to Cam Caffey of Michigan State. But hey, losses happen in the Big Ten. This match will be huge for seeding in the Big Ten Tournament, with the pair vying for the top seeding in a conference that includes five wrestlers in the top 10 nationally. Warner can beat almost anyone in the country on his day, but in this case I feel like Dean has more ways to beat you, and that is proves the difference.
THE PICK: Max Dean by decision
| IOWA | PENN STATE |
|---|---|
|
No. 5 Tony Cassioppi |
No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet |
LEX KNAPP.....
Talk about two wrestlers who have made complete transformations. Most people probably would not recognize the lean and mean Tony Cassioppi, who has dropped about twenty pounds since last season. Greg Kerkvliet, though he is a monster of man, has made more of a transformation on the mat. Kerkvliet dominated Michigan’s Mason Parris last weekend, and remains perfect on the year with an 11 – 0 record. Cassioppi did major Kerkvliet last season, but so did Mason Parris. I like the new and improved Kerkvliet, who looks like the odds on favorite to wrestle Gable Steveson in the NCAA finals in March.
THE PICK: Greg Kerkvliet by decision
CLAY SAUERTIEG.....
Surprise, surprise. It turns out Greg Kerkvliet is a much better wrestler if given the time to get health and get his body right. Kerkvliet looks a different animal this season, as evidenced by his recent win over Michigan's Mason Parris, who many considered the head and shoulders second-best heavyweight in the nation behind Steveson. Cassioppi, meanwhile, looked incredible on his way to a U23 world title this summer. However, it took him a while to get going this season. He took a relatively fluky loss early in the year to Princeton's Jack DelGarbino and then got handled by Steveson. He also struggled in matches with Jordan Wood of Lehigh and Tyrie Houghton of NC State. But last week's demolition of Ohio State's Tate Orndorff is encouraging for Iowa fans. Still, Kerkvliet appears to be on a warpath and I think he continues that with a win over Cassioppi.
THE PICK: Greg Kerkvliet by decision
| WRITER | PENN STATE | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
|
LEX KNAPP |
19 |
12 |
|
CLAY SAUERTIEG |
22 |
9 |
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