PSU-OSU storylines, the biggest story of the week, more: Fifth quarter

A fascinating leadup to Penn State-Ohio State is almost over, and it's been unlike almost any other that has come before it.

Eighth-year Nittany Lions leader James Franklin has spent much of the last few days answering questions about coaching carousel rumors and his own future in State College as opposed to ones about the task at hand, which is a trip to battle the Buckeyes as 18.5-point underdogs.

In this week's Fifth Quarter, we're diving into both the game and the storylines surrounding it as a 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff approaches.

Let's jump right into them:

--The week began with speculation about how healthy Sean Clifford could possibly be after struggling through the Illinois game, but both the quarterback and Franklin have stated that they expect No. 14 to be at 100 percent. We'll see, but suffice it to say, him being so is a must for the Lions to have a chance in this game.

--Franklin spent Tuesday and Wednesday answering questions about his future and the rumors surrounding it. At this point, some back the way he has handled it, others fiercly disagree with the way he's gone about doing so, and some are stuck in the middle and just want Penn State to win again. All sides are pretty dug in at this point, but the discussion still continues around water coolers, bars, message boards, social media, and so on, and it won't end anytime soon.

--Will any changes be made, particularly along the offensive line, this week? It will be interesting to see if Juice Scruggs is at center and Mike Miranda guard for the first offensive possession in primetime.

--Regardless, can Penn State actually fix its run game in season? We heard again about backs needing to do the right thing and a desire for added physicality from the offensive line and tight ends. More doing is needed than talking on both fronts at this point.

--What's more likely: Penn State's offense puts up enough points to be in it at the start of the fourth quarter or Ohio State having its backups in across the board midway through the third? OK, maybe this hasn't been discussed this week, but it's a question to ponder.

Penn State's offense has to be better than it's been on first down in each of the last two weeks if it wants to stay in it at Ohio State. No attack functions well off schedule, but the Lions, in particular, have struggled to do so over the last couple of games, and seasons, for that matter, and that's why it leads us off.

The drops have to go away, too, especially from the tight ends. There have been more than a few of them in both losses that could have possibly changed the outcome of both contests if third down incompletions are turned into chain-moving completions.

Obviously, Clifford must be healthy enough to run and do the thing he's become so good at, which is traveling almost parallel to the line of scrimmage to draw a defender forward so that he can flick it to an open receiver who can then use his speed to pick up needed yardage.

Those are the keys on offense, or at least some of them anyway. The goal must be to score as often and quickly as possible.

Defensively, it's strange to be able to say that Penn State is having one of its better years in the turnover department while still being able to state that it does not have enough, but that's unequivocally true. One such missed opportunity would have won the Illinois game, and the Lions won't survive against the Buckeyes by repeating that play. The run-stopping abilities will be in focus too, of course, after it struggled so badly against Illinois, but if PSU wants to have a chance to steal this, the front seven will have to be good but the secondary must be even better so that it doesn't turn into an up-and-down the field passing pursuit by CJ Stroud and co.

This section could be endless, but we'll sum it up this way: Penn State's key to victory is being practically perfect while getting more than a few bounces to go its way.

If I had a dollar for every time I've read this week that Penn State's problems revolve around James Franklin declining to directly state that he intends to be nowhere but State College next year, I could fill multiple suitcases for a stop at the Hollywood Casino Columbus on Friday.

'Nittany Nation' has many irked members right niow about all sorts of issues. Losing to Illinois at home is chief among them, but Franklin's handling of the outside noise in media settings is a close second, and maybe even the number one cause for consternation for a lot of fans this week.

Two refrains in particular have been popular for some:

"Why won't he say something as strong as Mike Tomlin did?"

"He's either all in or all out."

Then, there are those who have already wished a coach with a 65-30 record in blue and white in addition to a Big Ten title and pair of New Year's Six bowl victories good riddance.

All sides of this particular matter are dug in deep at this point, so there is not much sense in trying to argue one point or the other. But, it's hard to ignore the overriding theme, which is that some believe Franklin's future is impacting team morale and its mindset, preparation, and so on. Some point to Franklin's Tuesday press conference use of Illinois instead of Ohio State or The Big House instead of The Horseshoe as evidence, and others just say they feel that way and point squarely to another season of consecutive losses.

I don't buy it.

Over eight years, James Franklin, his staff, and their players have made costly mistakes at inopportune times on the field and also choices in recruiting that were less than ideal, but never for a second does it appear they did anything with the intent to harm Penn State or detract from its yearlong mission to win as many games as possible, and it still isn't the case. That wouldn’t change if Franklin signed a 10-year, $100 million dollar deal tomorrow on the sideline before kickoff. And, even if that did happen, it wouldn’t change Penn State’s chances to win Saturday or any other game this season.

For those who disagree, we'll agree to, but if things go south Saturday night, count me among those who do not believe that the lack of a scorched earth denial or rock-solid affirmation about future plans is the reason why.

Penn State wins if it forces four turnovers and commits none, nets a special teams touchdown, holds Ohio State to under 35 points, and scores at least 40 itself. Yes, the task seems impossible, but based on everything we've seen this season, that's about the only way I could envision it happening. Of course, maybe it's even crazier than that: Who saw Illinois needing 357 rushing yards and just 20 points to leave victorious last weekend?

Penn State loses if we'll spare you the gory details because we've spent much of this piece and the week as a whole discussing them.

Since 2006, Penn State has been a road underdog of at least 17 points on seven separate occasions per OddsShark. Those outcomes are as follows:

2006: +17 at Ohio State, lost 28-6

2010: +20 at Ohio State, lost 38-14

2011: +17 at Wisconsin, lost 45-7

2013: +25 at Wisconsin, won 31-24

2015: +18 at Ohio State, lost 38-10

2016: +18 at Michigan, lost 49-10

2019: +20 at Ohio State, lost 28-17

Which one of these contests does this upcoming game feel most like to you?

I'm torn between two: The 2019 game, which could possibly play out in 2021 if OSU struggles a bit and the Lions come close but no cigar to a winning effort, and 2015, when PSU was outgained by only 119 yards but undone by a 1-for-12 mark on third down and a fourth quarter Buckeyes barrage.

You have to look very hard to find positive pregame possibilities for Penn State in this one, but as the old saying goes, anything can happen on any given Saturday. It's just probably not going to be this one.

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