As we continue to await the release of the first USA Today Coaches Poll, followed later this month by the first AP Top 25 ahead of the start of the college football season, let's take a closer look at how the Big Ten appears to shape up among the preseason magazines and prognosticators.
Last week, we checked out Penn State's place in nine preseason rankings that have been released through the course of the summer, as well as those of the conference itself.
To reiterate, those included an ESPN Expert Top 25, ESPN's FPI rankings, Athlon, Lindy's, CBS Sports, The Sporting News, Phil Steele, NCAA.com, and CollegeFootballNews.com. Of those polls, only the FPI, Athlon, Lindy's, and CBS Sports were comprehensive, ranking all 130 college football programs ahead of the 2021 season, which we relied on heavily to fill out the rest of the conference after a consensus top five of Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana.
Now let's shift our focus to a Big Ten breakdown with an extrapolation of how the conference might shake out as the season progresses, which programs have the widest disparities in their prognostications, and how Penn State's schedule looks against the rest of the league.
Big Ten East
Average Preseason Rankings (National rank average)
1. Ohio State (4.3)
2. Penn State (18.4)
3. Indiana (19.2)
4. Michigan (27.6)
5. Maryland (66.75)
6. Michigan State (69.25)
7. Rutgers (74.5)
There are really a few different areas to explore when it comes to the preseason rankings in the Big Ten's East Division.
The first and most obvious is that no one, anywhere, is picking any program other than Ohio State to be among the nation's elite this season. And really, it's not like it's without good reason. The Buckeyes have won the Big Ten Championship Game in each of the past four seasons, with Penn State's 2016 performance the last hiccup in a run that includes five conference championships in the past seven seasons, with the expectation very much in place for another this year among the national media.
The second, and maybe most pertinent element to consider with Penn State, is how the Nittany Lions are being perceived coming off of 2020's disaster of a season. On the one hand, the Nittany Lions are breaking the mold that generally holds true for programs to earn preseason rankings at least somewhat in line with their finish to the previous year. That's the only way a 4-5 Penn State program could earn consensus top 25 rankings among the polls that we considered this preseason.
But on the other hand, how different is Penn State from a Wisconsin program that finished 4-3 and suffered its own share of disappointments from expectations a season ago? The Badgers were picked as the overwhelming favorites to win the West and, though COVID-19 game cancellations derailed that quest from the start, Wisconsin also dropped three-straight to fall to 2-3 before closing the regular season with a win against Minnesota and a bowl win over Wake Forest.
Whether or not Penn State is being penalized too much (or maybe not enough?) for last year's issues can be debated, but what can't is the third clear theme to emerge from the East Division. While Indiana enters the season hoping to build off its momentum from last year, and Michigan is dabbling with the fringes of respectability, earning just one preseason top 25 spot, the rest of the division doesn't scare anyone.
The only outliers among the three programs for relatively "positive" preseason rankings come in Michigan State's spot at No. 45 in the ESPN FPI and Maryland at No. 57 in Athlon. Beyond that, the Terps (66.75), Sparty (69.25) and the Scarlet Knights on the Raritan River (74.5) are expected to be three of the four worst performing programs in the Big Ten this season.
Big Ten West
Average Preseason Rankings (National rank average)
1. Wisconsin (14.5)
2. Iowa (18)
3. Northwestern (35.8)
4. Minnesota (43.5)
5. Nebraska (50.75)
6. Purdue (58.25)
7. Illinois (81.75)
For what it's worth, while the West again doesn't have an obvious competitor on the level of Ohio State in terms of its preseason national rankings, it does have a closer race between its top two programs in Wisconsin and Iowa.
The Badgers' preseason positioning ranges from as high as 11 in Phil Steele's publication and falls no lower than The Sporting News' placing the Badgers at No. 20. On average, that landed Penn State's first opponent of the 2021 season at 14.5, but Iowa, though not included on all nine rankings lists, checked in as high as No. 10 at NCAA.com and fell in the teens in six of the nine lists.
In the rest of the division, Northwestern, which finished at No. 10 in the final 2020 rankings with a 7-2 record that included a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, is back to have to fight for its respect this year. Though holding an average third-place rank in the West Division, Pat Fitzgerald's crew averages the seventh spot in the conference as a whole, trailed by Minnesota, Nebraska, and Purdue, each of which are looking to bounce back from overall losing records of 3-4, 3-5, and 2-4 last season, respectively.
Tasked with a schedule that now features only three crossover games annually, the Nittany Lions will have to travel to face the Badgers (Sept. 4), Hawkeyes (Oct. 9), and will see the basement-holder in the league, Illinois and new head coach Bret Bielema, at Beaver Stadium (Oct. 23) coming out of a bye.
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