Published Dec 7, 2024
Score Predictions for Penn State Football versus Oregon in B1G Championship
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Richie O'Leary  •  Happy Valley Insider
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It's almost time for Penn State Football as the Nittany Lions are headed to Indianapois for the 2024 Big Ten Championship, as they are all set to take on Oregon on Saturday night.

With that being said, our staff here at Happy Valley Insider offers their predictions for Saturday's game between the two B1G programs.

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SPREAD: Oregon -3.5 points || Over/Under: 50.5 points

DYLAN CALLAGHAN-CROLEY -- Oregon: 27 || Penn State: 24

I will start by saying I do think Penn State can win this game and if they do I will not be surprised by any means. That being said, I'm taking a similar thought process for this game as I did with the Ohio State game earlier this season. In year's prior, I have picked Penn State to win this type of game against a top-five foe where they have a high-quality chance at picking up a win. However, they have consistently struggled in these spots and until they prove to me they can win these games, I have to pick against them.

Overall, these two teams are very evenly matched, if you put their stats and metrics up against each other without which team was which at the top, it would be pretty hard to guess which one is Penn State and which one is Oregon.

But I have two big areas of concern, Penn State's wide receivers compared to Oregon's and Penn State's offensive line vs Oregon's front seven. Despite having a much better unit on paper, Oregon's passing attack and offense as a whole hasn't been that much more explosive than Penn State's. However, if I had to pick one unit to trust more on Saturday, it would be Oregon and it wouldn't be particularly close. Penn State's offensive line should be able to hold up decently well in this game but the Ducks have a deep pass rush with four pass rushers with 20+ pressures. I'm particularly worried about how Nolan Rucci will hold up as well in this one and Derick Harmon vs Nick Dawkins inside could be another mismatch to watch as well.

Penn State should hang with Oregon but they'll need to keep this one low scoring to have any true shot at pulling off the win over the nation's No.1 team.

Marty Leap -- Oregon: 27 || Penn State: 20

Well, here we go, for the first time since 2016 Penn State is back in the Big Ten Championship. When the no. 3 Nittany Lions clash with the no. 1 Oregon Ducks on Saturday night it will mark just the fourth time in FBS history a conference championship game has featured a matchup between two top 3 teams in the AP Poll, and it may also be a battle for the no. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.

Oregon enters this game ranked no. 1 in the country for a reason. The Ducks have an offense loaded with explosive weapons, a good offensive line, and it is quarterbacked by one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Dillon Gabriel. Their defense? Even better with arguably the best front 7 in the country to go with a very good secondary.

That said, Penn State is also one of the best teams in the country. The Nittany Lions have a defensive line that is more than capable of giving Oregon's offensive line and Gabriel fits. Tyler Warren is capable of making plays against any defense in the country and Nicholas Singleton looks the healthiest/most explosive he has since getting hurt against Illinois.

The Nittany Lions are more than capable of winning this game, but on a neutral field I favor the explosive playmakers Oregon has in their passing game that Penn State lacks. It's a close game throughout, but the Ducks pull out the close victory in Indianapolis.

Richie O'Leary -- Penn State: 32 | Oregon: 28

This won't be an easy one by any means, but as former Nittany Lion Adam Breneman said on the CFB Power Hour Podcast, I think Penn State matches up better against Oregon than they do against Ohio State.

It's going to come down to if the Nittany Lions can slow down the Ducks high powered, fast pace offense and control the tempo of the game. That's going to start by making Dillon Gabriel uncomfortable back there in the pocket. When kept clean, Gabriel is hitting on 79.9% of his passes, but when pressured it drops to 48.8% and that's where the Nittany Lions can expose the Ducks if they can get edge rushers Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton can get some hits on the quarterback. On the flip side, Penn State will need to establish the run game behind their two star tailbacks in Nick Singleton / Kaytron Allen, I'm expecting a big game out of one of them as the lights tend to shine the brightest on the stars in games like this. If Penn State can do that, the pass game will open up and they will be able to win this and I think they do just that.

Zane Brancefield -- Penn State: 27 | Oregon: 24

Penn State will beat Oregon 27-24 but this is not a clear-cut decision. However, if we look back on the Ohio State game. Penn State only allowed 20 points to the Buckeyes, whereas the Ducks gave up 31 points. Sure, Penn State struggles some games with pass defense, but Tom Allen makes great adjustments when needed. It is also important to look at how Andy Kotelnicki and the offense moved passed the timidness and made some big plays against Minnesota. Drew Allar, Tyler Warren, and Nick Singleton are going to be game-changers and are very important for the Nittany Lions to win. Defensively, Jaylen Reed, Zakee Wheatley, AJ Harris, and the secondary are going to need to step up big to cover Tez Johnson and company. Abdul Carter and the defensive front also need to provide plenty of pressure to disrupt the calm and collected Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. If Penn State plays hard and aggressively, they should be able to win the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016.

Scott Reed (Oregon-Rivals) -- Oregon: 28 | Penn State: 24

I do think that the Ducks present some problems with their offense – there are playmakers that force defenses to make choices and – for the most part – Dillon Gabriel has been excellent at distributing the ball and making the right choices to move the ball for the Ducks.

With a defense that is elite at getting after the quarterback and limiting the passing game, I do think Oregon has enough weapons on both sides of the field to win this game – but I think it is close throughout with the Ducks winning 28-24.

WRITERS AROUND THE BIG TEN....

Adam Gorney (National Recruiting Analyst) - Penn State: 24 | Oregon: 21

I'm leaning Oregon here because of the immense talent and speed across the board for the Ducks but the public is all over them and that makes me very hesitant. Almost nine out of every 10 bets is on Oregon and that's how Vegas makes their money. Here's the thing: Penn State's only loss came at home to Ohio State (and think what you will of them after losing to Michigan but the Buckeyes are still national title contenders) and the Nittany Lions had a first-and-goal to tie it up in the fourth quarter and got stuffed. Oregon seems like the logical pick for a lot of reasons but I'm going 24-21 Penn State.

Greg Smith (Midwest Recruiting Analyst) - Penn State: 27 | Oregon: 23

I’m really looking forward to this game and think it's a great matchup. The storylines are juicy too. Can coach James Franklin get the “big game” monkey off his back? Does Oregon win the league in its first season which would firmly put the conference on notice? After all that, I think the matchup comes down to the run game. Penn State has the second-best rushing offense in the conference. Oregon’s rush defense comes in at seventh.

If the Nittany Lions can control the ball and clock it boosts their chances to win quite a bit. I think they’ll do that and win the game.

Doug Buschon (Illinois-Rivals) - Oregon: 27 | Penn State: 24

It’s an evenly matched games that features Oregon’s elite team speed versus Penn State’s physicality on defense. Dillon Gabriel wins the QB battle throwing to an electric group of wideouts.

Jim Coyle (Indiana-Rivals) - Oregon: 27 | Penn State: 13

I am just not sold on Penn State. I respect their defense, but really question their offense and their ability to put up the kind of numbers it will take to beat a team like Oregon. The Ducks will test Tom Allen's secondary more than any team has in 2024. I think Penn State is lucky to be in the position they are in because they probably should have lost to both USC and Minnesota, two teams that also like to throw the ball. But I think losing to Oregon would be James Franklin's best win of the season. That's because if things hold the Nittany Lions would then host the winner of the Big 12 championship, the lowest ranked team in the CFP.

Eliot Clough (Iowa-Rivals) - Oregon: 31| Penn State: 27

One might say the Nittany Lions lucked their way into this one, thanks to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have somehow found a way to lose big games under Ryan Day, and Penn State has done the same under James Franklin. Dan Lanning is a better coach, and Oregon has superior talent. Ducks win.

Scott Greene (Maryland-Rivals) - Oregon: 31 | Penn State: 27

These teams are fairly evenly matched and if this game were being played in Happy Valley in the elements, I might even be inclined to pick PSU. But on a neutral site where the elements won't play a factor, I just think Dillon Gabriel and Tez Johnson in the pass game for the Ducks are the difference.

Josh Henschke (Michigan-Rivals) - Oregon: 31 | Penn State: 27

Oregon feels as if it’s on a collision course with the national championship with the way it ran roughshod through its schedule this season. The James Franklin big game narrative is now looking like a curse, can the Nittany Lions do it? I just don’t know if PSU has the athletes to get over the hump against the Ducks but it should be an interesting game.

Seth Berry (Minnesota-Rivals) - Penn State 27 | Oregon 24

I think the Nittany Lions’ have what it takes in the run game with Allen and Singleton to take advantage of the Ducks’ interior defensive line, which showed to be one of the teams’ few weaknesses early on in the season. That allows PSU to control the tempo, and the defense does just enough against an explosive Oregon offense to give PSU a Big Ten title.

Tim Verghese (Nebraska-Rivals) - Oregon: 24 | Penn State: 16

Fully expecting a defensive battle between the Ducks and Nittany Lions.

Penn State’s defense can slow down Dillon Gabriel and the well-rounded Oregon offense to a certain extent but will it be enough? Oregon’s defensive front presents a bit of a mismatch against Penn State’s offensive line from what we’ve seen from both units this year. Andy Kotelnicki will have to find creative ways to give Drew Allar time, get the ball into Nick Singleton and Tyler Warren’s hands and it still might not be enough.

Penn State won’t make it easy, but I have a hard time seeing the Nittany Lions’ offense putting up enough points to come out on top,

Louie Vaccher (Northwestern-Rivals) - Oregon: 28 | Penn State: 20

The Ducks just have too much offense for the Nittany Lions. Plus, this is a big game and Penn State is coached by James Franklin.

Dub Jellison (Purdue-Rivals) - Penn State: 24 | Oregon: 28

Saturday is an opportunity for both James Franklin and Dan Lanning to show they can win when it matters most. The result won’t send one out of the College Football Playoff, but will go a long way in deciding the seeding for the 12-team bracket.

I see Oregon continuing to find a way to win tight games, ultimately taking the Big Ten crown in its first year in the conference.

Alec Crouthamel (Rutgers-Rivals) - Oregon: 41 | Penn State: 31

This is a true heavyweight battle up front and at the skill positions, and I see this game being a lot more high-scoring than most. Nittany Lions offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s unit has had some trouble consistently lighting up the scoreboard but he’ll be forced to keep up with Ducks OC Will Stein’s dynamic attack led by grisled veteran Dillon Gabriel.

The playmakers are going to decide this game, and Oregon just has too much talent in the passing game for Penn State to keep up with, despite both teams also boasting stout defenses. A late Ducks score seals this one, but the first expanded Big Ten Championship is one for the ages.

Tracy McDannald (UCLA-Rivals) - Oregon: 24 | Penn State: 17

Whether it’s been a shootout or a low-scoring game, the Ducks have found a way to stay undefeated and that continues to a Big Ten title in the program’s first season in the league. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel shows why he was the Big Ten’s offensive player of the year and defensive end Matayo Uiagalelei pressures Penn State quarterback Drew Allar.

Jon McNamara (Wisconsin-Rivals) - Oregon: 31 | Penn State: 24

I think this contest comes down to quarterback play, and I have a little more trust in Dillon Gabriel than I do in Drew Allar. The Ducks also have better athletes and speed on the perimeter, and that should prove to be a problem for Penn State. Finally, give me Dan Lanning over James Franklin in a big game.