It's almost time for Penn State Football as the Nittany Lions are headed to Indianapois for the 2024 Big Ten Championship, as they are all set to take on Oregon on Saturday night.
With that being said, our staff here at Happy Valley Insider offers their predictions for Saturday's game between the two B1G programs.
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SPREAD: Penn State -9.0 points || Over/Under: 52.5 points
DYLAN CALLAGHAN-CROLEY -- Penn State: 31 || SMU: 21
I think this will for the most part be a great game on Saturday in Happy Valley but ultimately I believe the Nittany Lions have a notable advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
This SMU team is a very good one, no doubt about that, they deserve to be in the playoffs but I believe they're also being a bit overrated. The ACC this season was undeniably a poor conference and a look at their schedule shows it was all in all, one of the least challenging of any college football playoff program. They haven't faced a program this season as good fast and physical as the Nittany Lions and I think that will be a major factor in this one.
Offensively, the Nittany Lions may have some challenges in moving the ball at times but I believe they'll be able to find enough success. As mentioned above, I think the Nittany Lions have the advantage in the trenches and I expect the offensive line to get strong pushes consistently like they did against a much better front seven in Oregon two weeks ago. Tyler Warren is unstoppable, Rhett Lashlee has said as much this week as well, I expect him to have a big day.
Defensively, if the Nittany Lions can contain Kevin Jennings, not allowing him to extend plays or beat them with his feet, they'll be just fine. The SMU rushing attack is a dangerous one and will get their yards but I expect Penn State to mostly be able to slow down the Mustangs on the ground.
Kevin Jennings has a good arm and has thrown for over 3,000 yards this season and outside the Big Ten Championship game, the Nittany Lions' secondary hasn't been overly exposed this season. I don't expect that to happen on Saturday either as the Mustangs don't have the athletes, or even just Tez Johnson order to have the same level of success as the Ducks did.
MARTY LEAP -- Penn State: 31 || SMU: 17
Well, it's finally here. After nearly a decade of being on the precipice, the Penn State Nittany Lions are in the College Football Playoff. Not only have they finally made the CFP, they will get to host their first-round matchup with SMU at a cold, blustery Beaver Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
SMU is a good football team, but the Nittany Lions are undeniably better. The Mustang defense is strong up the middle, but off-tackle runs and passing lanes will be available. Penn State, specifically Drew Allar and the passing game, need to expose this. This could be a big game for both Tyler Warren and Trey Wallace.
Defensively, Penn State should have a big advantage. SMU's offensive line will likely struggle to block the Nittany Lion defensive line. Kevin Jennings might be the best quarterback not named Dillon Gabriel they have faced this season, and it will be important to keep his legs in check, but Jennings may not have much time to throw. Abdul Carter also seems to be a very motivated man in this game after being snubbed during award season.
The Nittany Lions prove to be too much for the Mustangs, and advance to a quarterfinals matchup with Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
RICHIE O'LEARY -- Penn State: 31 || SMU: 17
While I think SMU has had quite the first season in the ACC, they've also faced some struggles this year and I expect to continue as they head into the Tundra of Happy Valley this upcoming weekend.
For starters, the Penn State offense as we all know goes through swiss army knife tight end Tyler Warren, who's listed at 6-foot-6, 260-pounds. Why is this notable? Both of SMU's starting linebackers are 6-foot and 5-foot-11, while their safeties are both listed at 5-foot-10. This is a notable size advantage for the Nittany Lions, who will almost definitely use this to their advantage.
Add in the fact that SMU is the most penalized P4 team in the country and also turn it over quite a bit (12 fumbles and thrown nine interceptions in 2024), I believe these are two things that Penn State can take advantage of to get prime field position.
Last, but not least add in the weather factor of playing in below freezing temps in State College, something the Nittany Lions are rather used to versus a program from Dallas, Texas. I'm leaning towards it being close early, but expect Penn State and QB Drew Allar to open up the offense a bit leading to a solid round one victory.
Dub Jellison -- Penn State: 31 || SMU: 24
I think this is going to be a little too close for comfort for the Nittany Lions, despite being an 8.5-point favorite heading into the game. SMU provides one of the toughest tests of the year for Penn State. Maybe not quite at the level of Ohio State and Oregon, but pretty darn close. The Ponies have an explosive offense and one of the top defenses in the nation... but so do the Nittany Lions.
While SMU offers challenges, the same can be said for Penn State as the Mustangs haven't battled top tier Big Ten talent this season, especially in the cold weather. That could play a big role in deciding who wins on Saturday as Penn State is in its element, behind a ferocious defense.
I expect Drew Allar to come out slinging it, but Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen could be the biggest key to victory if they can find success on the ground and keep the football away from Kevin Jennings.
Ultimately, I have Penn State defending its home turf and picking up its first win in the College Football Playoff to advance to the quarterfinals.
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