The next steps for Penn State are suddenly incredibly murky.
Asked at the beginning of October what Penn State needs to do to take the next step as a program that is trying to compete with the Ohio State's of the world, the answer would've been a simple one.
Even after a devastating loss to Iowa, with Penn State sitting at 5-1 and still very much alive for a spot in the college football playoffs, the university should've been in a spot where it promised head coach James Franklin everything he needed and more to compete with regards to assurances about program upgrades. That, at the time, would've been in hopes of keeping Franklin in Happy Valley long-term as he was courted by powerhouse programs such as LSU and USC.
Now, those discussions are a bit more complex.
Let's clear up a few things that have been heavily debated in recent weeks.
First, there's no possible way that Penn State is going to fire Franklin this offseason, nor should it. The reality there is that he's still unquestionably one of the nation's elite recruiting head coaches and recruiting is the lifeblood of college football.
Second, Franklin is not wrong about the program needing to make improvements. While Penn State has undoubtedly come a long way in the last decade with regards to facility upgrades and salary pools for assistants and support staff, it's still a long way off the nation's perennial playoff contenders. Yes, those things are not going to make the difference between beating Illinois or not and they're not going to turn Franklin into a better game day coach, but they will help lure more talent and better assistant coaches to State College. Both of which can very effectively paper over a lot of cracks.
With those two things cleared up, the reality is that Franklin has not been good enough the last two seasons. While there are a slew of variables, including losing the team's two best players just months before the season, that make it easy to consider 2020 an outlier, the same cannot be said for 2021. Penn State didn't lose against Illinois because of bad luck or anything outside of its control. The Nittany Lions didn't fail to come up with big plays, particularly offensively, against Iowa and Michigan, because they lack the players to do so.
Franklin mentioned after Saturday's loss that his team doesn't have enough play makers at the level of star wide receiver Jahan Dotson. While Dotson is an exceptional talent, players like Devyn Ford, Noah Cain, Theo Johnson and KeAndre Lambert-Smith were all considered highly-touted prospects with game breaking ability coming out of high school. Each of those four have now spent multiple years in the program. Why are none of those players at a level where they can shift a game individually?
While ultimately its up those players to actually make the plays once the ball is snapped, it's up to Franklin and his assistants to develop them to the point where they're comfortable and able to make big plays in big situations.
What they're left with, instead, is a team that has posted a 10-9 record over the last two seasons, one that Franklin himself acknowledged was not good enough. But it also puts the university in a position where it's expected to and should continue to invest in a program that needs to improve, but it's expected to do so with a head coach that has suddenly gone from in high-demand to on the hot seat with another underwhelming season in 2022.
And Penn State will know fairly quickly what it has on its hands in 2022. The Nittany Lions start the season on the road at Purdue before travelling to Auburn in week three, welcoming Ohio State in week five and travelling to Michigan just one week later, a brutal stretch for even the best programs in the country. A 3-3 start could see a program that has not handled adversity well staring down a ton of speculation about Franklin's job status and the future of the program.
Fates and fortunes can change quickly in the wild west that is the college football landscape, and they seem to have done just for Penn State. I am still, even if one of the few, a believer that James Franklin can get the Nitany Lions' program back on track towards its lofty goals, but he's certainly not made it easy on himself.
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