Published Sep 3, 2021
Staff Predictions: Penn State vs. Wisconsin
Ryan Snyder, Nate Bauer, Greg Pickel, David Eckert, Matt Herb
Blue White Illustrated

The college football season is finally here, which means it's time for our staff to make their predictions for Saturday's game in Madison against the Wisconsin Badgers.

Last season, both Nate Bauer and David Eckert posted the best records, predicting six of the nine games correctly.

As for the teams, both are coming off of subpar seasons. The Badgers managed to finish with a winning record at 4-3, but ended up being third in the Big Ten West. Penn State lost its first five games in 2020 before rallying to win its final four, finishing 4-5, third in the Big Ten East.

For the series, Penn State holds a slight 10-9 advantage over Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions have won four consecutive games against the Badgers, including a dramatic come-from-behind victory in the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game. Wisconsin's most recent win over Penn State came in 2011, and the Nittany Lions have won six of the past seven games dating back to 2007.

So, what will happen this weekend? Our staff gives their opinions below.

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Nate Bauer

Picking the first game of the season is always a wildcard. How will Sean Clifford look after his disastrous 2020? What will game one of the Mike Yurcich transition look like? Is Wisconsin capable of beating up this Penn State D?

My answers? Good enough, explosive (if inconsistent), and no.

Penn State’s big bet is that most of its Big Ten opponents aren’t positioned to keep pace in a track meet, and Wisconsin certainly fits that bill. Given enough opportunities, which the Lions’ newly fast-paced offense will provide, that can keep a game within reach even amidst an up-and-down performance.

Penn State 31

Wisconsin 27

Greg Pickel

Penn State will be an underdog when it visits Wisconsin this weekend, but should the Lions be? There’s no question that giving the Badgers some points for home field advantage has to happen, but early betting suggests that those making wagers believe the home team should be a bigger favorite than it is at -5.5.

Most predictions are relying on the idea that Graham Mertz will outplay Clifford, and maybe that’ll be so. But, from this viewpoint, No. 14 and his new OC will lead the Lions to victory.

Penn State 27

Wisconsin 20

David Eckert

The timing of this game, to me, is a problem for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are being asked to enter a daunting road environment, play their first true road game in nearly two years, and beat a very good team while also ironing out the wrinkles on a brand new offense led by Yurcich.

Any way you look at it, it’s just a big ask. If this game were being played at a neutral venue midway through the season, I’d feel comfortable picking the Nittany Lions.

I can’t do it here.

Wisconsin 28

Penn State 24

Matt Herb

Wisconsin led the nation in time of possession last season, holding the ball for more than 36 minutes on average. I get that possession time is considered an overrated statistic these days, but that’s a big disparity.

Wisconsin’s physically punishing offensive style could pose a problem for Penn State’s defense, particularly in the second half, if the Nittany Lions’ new offense isn’t able to generate first downs and keep Mertz, Chez Mellusi, Jalen Berger and company off the field.

It’s not supposed to be scorching hot in Madison on Saturday, so that helps. But I could see the Badgers pulling out a close game in the fourth quarter.

Wisconsin 28

Penn State 20

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Ryan Snyder

For me, I just need to see it from Penn State before I buy in that last year was a total fluke. Yes, they rallied at the end of the year, and that showed me a lot, but those wins also came against four teams that combined to go 9-21 last season.

I have Penn State going 8-4 in 2021, and if that's the case, this will likely be one of the games that they don't pull out. With that said, the first quarter will tell us a lot. The Nittany Lions have often gotten off to slow starts, so if they're able to reverse that trend and have some success early, this could absolutely go their way.

However, as of now, I think it’ll be Wisconsin’s defense outplaying Penn State’s defense to give the Badgers a win. A tough start for the Lions, but we'll see as the season goes on that this team has improved in a lot of areas.

Wisconsin 31

Penn State 27

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