Friday Mailbag: Will Penn State sign a five-star in 2022?

Blue White Illustrated's Ryan Snyder has started a new Friday feature, opening up his Twitter notifications for fans to ask any recruiting question they'd like. Now, even those who don't subscribe to BWI will get the opportunity to ask questions, and with official visits just days away, there's plenty to discuss. Check out this week's answers below.

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Penn State finds itself in the mix with wide receiver Kevin Coleman and linebacker Shawn Murphy, but I think their best bet is with a player who currently doesn’t hold a five-star rating and that’s defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton. When Rivals first announced its Rivals100 for the Class of 2022, only about 10 or so players started out as a five-star. There are a variety of reasons for that, but the main thing that fans need to know is that additional players add a fifth star to their name as the year goes on. Over the past five years, the average number of five-stars on Rivals is around 32. Some years, like in 2021, saw just 30 players earn that distinction, while other years, like 2020, saw as many as 35. That's usually the range.

So, with Dennis-Sutton currently ranked 25th overall, all signs point to him finishing with that fifth star. Players below him will move up, but Dennis-Sutton has also been excellent this spring, dominating both the Under Armour Camp in Baltimore a few weeks ago and Rivals Camp in New Jersey last weekend. If anything, I feel like he’s on the verge of moving up a bit, too. My colleagues, Adam Friedman and Adam Gorney, both wrote this week that they think he could be the No. 1 overall defensive end in the class by the time it’s all said and done. Those two, as well as many others, agree that the Nittany Lions are in the driver’s seat here. Everything points to Dennis-Sutton ending his recruitment shortly after his official visits, so fans won’t have to wait much longer to find out.

This one is tough because I don’t get the vibe that any one specific player is truly leaning Penn State’s way at the moment. I think Wesley Bissainthe could surprise some people, but that’s all contingent on a great official visit. Jaishawn Barham admitted this week that Penn State is one of four schools standing out, while Omar Graham Jr. is also high on the Nittany Lions, although most believe he’ll end up staying down south.

One player I do believe could end up in this class is Exeter Twp. prospect JR Strauss. A three-star prospect, Strauss doesn’t hold an offer from Penn State yet, but he’s going to camp in a few weeks and I know there are a few fans of his inside Lasch. During a combine in Texas earlier this year, he ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash and 4.22-second shuttle. If he does something similar at the Whiteout Camp, don’t be surprised if he not only earns an offer, but joins the class.

Who I would consider a top prospect and who some fans or even other colleagues would consider a top prospect is certainly up for debate. On our offers board, I list 46 uncommitted players. It’s called the offers board, but what it really is is a list of Penn State’s top overall targets and where they stand. Players come on and off the list all the time, but it’s purpose is for fans to know where I think PSU stands with those players throughout the year.

Out of those 46 prospects, 28 have publicly announced that they have official visits locked in with Penn State. I think that’s a pretty good ratio, and really, the number is higher than that. Franklin and his staff have visits set with a few players who don’t want to announce their visit plans yet, for whatever reason. When you add in the committed players, we should see a little over 40 prospects take official visits to Penn State during that four-week span in June. That’ll leave the Lions with about 20 or so remaining official visits that they’ll be able to use later in the year if necessary.

They’ll certainly be using some of those for the White Out game and in the final weeks before signing day, but the staff knows that the second half of June and the first half of July is going to be a free-for-all in regards to commitments. Out of those 46 players, I think probably 50 percent or so will decide this summer, and that number may be a bit conservative. I also think most of these recruits will take one official visit each weekend in June, which is why June 28 to about July 20 is when I expect to see many of these commitments. Anto Saka, Jaeden Gould and Dennis-Sutton are just a few of the players who have said they’re targeting that window.

KJ Winston is definitely the guy I’m focused on the most. Penn State is expected to get both Sherrod Covil and Keon Sabb on campus this summer, and if either want to commit, they’ll find space, but Winston makes the most sense. This feels like a Penn State - Notre Dame battle and I think PSU has an edge in the relationship category. However, he hasn’t visited any schools, so those visits are going to have a major impact on his final decision.

At defensive tackle, I’ll lean towards Kaleb Artis, which would be a great pickup for Penn State. I think he’s their top overall target at the position and they’re certainly putting in the effort with him. I get the vibe that Auburn may be Penn State’s top competitor, but Florida State is coming on strong lately, too, so like everyone else, official visits will prove to be crucial.

Numbers move all the time, so whatever number we project today will probably be different in three months from now. I try to always tread lightly when it comes to projecting numbers. With that said, I think you could see around five wide receivers sign, which looks like a lot on the surface, but when you look a bit deeper, it makes sense for a few reasons. As I’m sure you know, Mehki Flowers is a very versatile prospect who could also play safety. Now, he’s made it clear throughout his recruitment, including just a few weeks ago, that he prefers to give receiver a chance. He was one of the top three or four receivers at the Baltimore Under Armour Camp earlier this month, and if you put on the film, the kid makes a ton of plays, so I certainly can’t argue against that. A few believe his skillset fits best at safety, but either way, I expect Flowers to start at receiver.

Cristian Driver also fits this mold. We know schools like Penn State and Wisconsin are pushing wide receiver on him, and from what I understand, he likes the idea of playing on offense. That’s a big reason why myself and others feel as if the Lions may be the team to beat. He still has to commit, but if he did, now PSU has two players who are truly versatile enough to play either side of the ball. James Franklin loves that.

One other thing to remember is that Lonnie White Jr. could very well end up playing baseball if he’s selected as high as many think he will be in July Major League Baseball Draft. I don’t believe that even Lonnie knows what he’s going to do yet, but if you’re Penn State, you have to prepare for the worst, which is why you’re seeing offers go out. Keep a solid pool of receivers interested, see where he ultimately ends up, and then you can decide on adding a fifth or not.

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