Three things we know, three we don't after Penn State's 4-0 start
Penn State is officially 33% of the way through their 2022 season and is off to a strong 4-0 start while knocking on the door of the top-10 in both the AP and Coaches polls. The Nittany Lions have been impressive on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball and put together three-straight comfortable wins over Ohio, Auburn, and Central Michigan.
With just Northwestern remaining before heading into a gauntlet of Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State, we've learned quite a bit about the 2022 version of the Nittany Lions. However, we also still don't have answers to a few of the questions that the program entered the season with as well.
Here are three things we know and three things we don't know about Penn State heading into their week five matchup against Northwestern.
Three things we know...
1. Penn State has a pair of dynamic running backs that haven't changed the outlook of the rushing attack.
In their first four games of the season, Penn State's running back room has already totaled 692 yards and the Nittany Lions are averaging 185.8 yards per game, a far cry from the struggles of last season that saw the Nittany Lions averaged just 107.8 yards per game.
The biggest reason for the Nittany Lions' improvement on the ground is their pair of phenomenal freshmen running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Combined, the two freshmen have totaled 593 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while both recording at least one game of 100+ yards.
Penn State's offensive line in their run blocking this year have been quality but still has much to work on (more on that soon). That being said, both Singleton and Allen bring dynamic skillsets to the Nittany Lions offense creating a very "thunder and lightning" type duo in the backfield. Allen brings the thunder, the 5-foot-11, 201-pound tailback not only brings quality size but has elite vision, especially for a freshman. His combination of vision and patience, allows Penn State's offensive line to open up lanes, and then he uses his strong burst and athleticism to hit the open holes.
MORE: Penn State's Kaytron Allen earns Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors
Singleton, brings the lightning, in his first four games, the Shillington (PA) native shows shades of Saquan Barkley and Journey Brown. If you let him get to the outside, you may not catch him. Through his first four games, the former four-star has already totaled four carries of 40+ yards with a pair both against Ohio and Auburn. It's the first time a Penn State running back has recorded more than one carry of 40+ yards in a game since Larry Johnson during his 2,000-yard season in 2002. He also recorded a pair of 100+ yard games against the Bobcats and Tigers. Even after a pedestrian performance against Central Michigan, the 6-foot-0, 219-pound tailback is averaging 9.0 yards per carry.
Thanks to Singleton and Allen, Penn State's offensive line doesn't have to be perfect in their run blocking like they had to do the last two seasons with a less explosive running back duo in Keyvone Lee and Noah Cain. While Lee remains with the team, the sophomore running back has just 14 carries on the season for 48 yards, though notably he got banged up against Auburn and then didn't appear against Central Michigan. Overall, the Nittany Lions offensive line simply has to just give Singleton and Allen a glimpse of daylight into the open field, and if they do that, the freshmen running backs have the skillset to make the opposing defenses pay.
On top of that, the two freshmen making Penn State's rushing attack explosive and dangerous once again has allowed Sean Clifford to play much more risk-free. The sixth-year quarterback has only thrown one interception this season and has thrown very few passes that would be deemed turnover-worthy decisions.
2. The offensive line is still a work in progress...
The offensive line is still a work in progress for Penn State, especially their run blocking. While Phil Trautwein's position group has been more consistent in opening holes for Penn State's run game, they still do struggle at times.
The Nittany Lions have had great success running off the ends this year with 266 yards while rushing towards the right end and 147 yards when rushing towards the left end. That should come as no surprise, Penn State's wide receiver room and tight end room have both really improved their blocking abilities this season.
When they don't have the tight ends as support, the offensive line has had its fair share of struggles. While impressing in the passing game, Olu Fashanu has struggled in his run blocking. The Nittany Lions are averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt when running towards his side without a tight end on the end to support him and in the middle, their attempts this season have been lackluster, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry when trying to run to either side of center Juice Scruggs.
It hasn't all been struggles, Landon Tengwall, and Sal Wormley have both been strong in their run blocking, for the most part, this season. Albeit on a limited six attempts, they've also had success running towards the right tackle spot, averaging over six yards per attempt.
Ultimately, Penn State as mentioned above is still averaging over 180 yards per game on the ground, but their level of consistency must improve going forward. It will be intriguing to see how they perform against bigger and stronger defensive lines in Michigan and Ohio State. While Singleton and Allen have both been able to make up for some of the poorer blocked plays this season, they'll have a tougher time doing so against more athletic front sevens.
In their pass protection, however, the offensive line has been very strong, overall. Through four games, the offensive line has allowed just five sacks with only two of those coming from starters in Caedan Wallace and Sal Wormley. Juice Scruggs, Landon Tengwall, and Olu Fashanu have yet to allow a sack this season.
Fashanu has without a doubt been Penn State's most impressive pass blocker. Through four games and 156 pass blocking attempts, the 6-foot-6, 308-pound tackle has allowed just four quarterback pressures and no hits. His PFF grade of 88.7 through four games is tied for fifth in the country amongst tackles. While he still must improve in his run blocking, Penn State will trade off those growing pains on the ground for having a stalwart of a left tackle when it comes to pass protection.
The right side for the Nittany Lions, overall, has been serviceable but still their weakest point on the offensive line in pass blocking. Sal Wormley, returning from an injury that kept him out all of last season has been quality but is surely still getting his feet back under him. While his blocking hasn't been perfect, he's still only allowed one sack and two quarterback hits while allowing just nine pressures on 158 pass-blocking opportunities this season.
The right tackle spot was the biggest area of concern on the offensive line entering the season and remains that way after four games. Caedan Wallace, whose struggles at the position have been well documented has only allowed one sack this year but has allowed eight hurries and nine total pressures on just 112 pass-blocking snaps. Bryce Effner who has rotated with Wallace at times has allowed one sack, three hurries, and four pressures on 63 snaps. While both have been functional and usable on the right side, it's a position that will be magnified in the upcoming weeks when the Nittany Lions face a myriad of explosive pass rushers.
Overall, Penn State's offensive line has improved from last season and has not been a major question mark in the first month of the season, however, there are still improvements that have to be made and the consistency must be improved going forward.
3. Penn State's defense is off to a strong start and is causing chaos
There shouldn't be too many complaints about Manny Diaz's unit through the first four games of the season. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 16.8 points per game officially but in reality, that number is 15.0 points per game as Purdue scored a touchdown on a pick-six in the season opener. Yes, they're allowing 366 yards per game including 275 passing yards on average but both those numbers fail to tell the entire story.
One of the more telling stats when looking at a defense is yards per point, simply how many yards an opposing offense has to gain to equal one point. When going up against Penn State's defense this season, every 21.8 yards is about equal to one point, that number ranks 12th in the country so far this season. That means on average, opposing offenses need are averaging about 152.8 yards per offense to score just one touchdown on the Nittany Lions defense.
Let's break this down even further of how strong Penn State's defensive starters have been.
Outside the Purdue game, Penn State's defense has had the comfort of playing mostly backups in the fourth quarter of games thanks to having comfortable late leads in each of the last three games. If you subtract their 4th quarter defensive stats over the last three games and include their 426 total yards allowed to Purdue, Penn State's starters are allowing just around 292 yards per game this season, an elite number from Penn State's starting defense.
Now, it's not an exact number as it's hard to determine exactly when a team makes the switch from starters to a majority of backups in any respective game. Either way, it's a number that at the very least gives a pretty strong indication of how good Penn State's starting defense has been this season.
A big part of that has been their abilities to stop the opposing run game, opposing offenses have averaged just 91.75 yards per game on the ground this season and are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. Against the best rushing attack, they've faced this season in Auburn, the Tigers were only able to muster up 119 yards on 36 carries. The Nittany Lions' front seven has stood up to the test so far on the ground, we'll see how they handle the fantastic running backs they'll face over the next few weeks.
Through the air, Penn State's passing defense has surrendered about 275 passing yards per game but that number is quite an illusion. The Nittany Lions have faced the most passing attempts this season with opposing offenses throwing the ball 189 times this season.
That being said, the secondary is keeping opposing quarterbacks to just a mere 51.3% completion percentage and hasn't allowed more than 55.8% of passes to be completed this season. They're allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt which rank among the top-25 best in the country. Yes, they'll give some big plays here or there but overall, the Penn State secondary has lived up to the preseason hype and remains one of the best in the country.
Cornerbacks Joey Porter Jr and Kalen King have both been tremendous, both allowing less than 50% of passes to be completed against them while totaling 17 pass breakups through four games. Johnny Dixon has also put together a strong season, allowing just five receptions on 13 targets while also bringing in one interception and breaking up five passes of his own. As a whole Penn State's secondary has already totaled 41 pass breakups, matching their total from a season ago.
The safety room has done what was expected of them, Ji'Ayir Brown remains one of the country's elite safeties while Zakee Wheatley has been able to carry over his momentum from spring and fall practices to become one of the defenses' top playmakers. Through four games, Wheatley has totaled two interceptions and one forced fumble to go along with 10 tackles. James Franklin and his staff deserve a ton of credit for finding Wheatley in the 2021 recruiting class which was impacted greatly by COVID-19.
Finally, Manny Diaz's defenses have historically been known for creating chaos and they're doing just that. Through four games, Penn State has forced nine turnovers with four interceptions and five fumbles. They're also consistently getting into the backfield, with the defense totaling 115 quarterback pressures, 79 hurries, 24 quarterback hits, and 12 sacks.
All this being said, the defense hasn't been perfect, they have allowed their fair share of big plays throughout the season, but overall, it's been a great job done by Diaz in his first year with the program. The only question that remains with the defense, although a big one, is the linebacker room.
Three things we don't know...
1. Can Penn State find an answer at linebacker going forward?
Penn State's linebacker room this year entered the season as a major question mark and through four weeks, the linebackers have been viable. However, against more athletic opponents in the upcoming weeks, the position group will be pushed to its limits.
Against the run, the linebackers have played at a quality level. Curtis Jacobs and Abdul Carter have both stood out which isn't shocking considering they're Penn State's most athletic linebackers. Jonathan Sutherland has also been top-notch for Penn State against the run. Kobe King and Tyler Elsdon have both had their ups and downs, struggling with consistency both haven't been a liability.
Against the pass, however, is where Penn State's linebacker room is really being taken advantage of. So far through four games, opposing offenses have targeted the middle of the field between 0-15 yards, 71 times through the air, an average of 17.7 attempts per game. In those 71 attempts, opposing quarterbacks are completing 64.7% of their passes (46-of-71) for 544 yards. Those 544 yards account for 49.4% of Penn State's passing yards allowed this season.
Against less explosive wide receiver rooms, it's already been a struggle for Penn State in the middle of the field and while not all of that falls on the linebackers, a majority of it does. Against the pass, the Nittany Lions' linebackers simply are not enough of a threat to disrupt opposing offenses. When they face more explosive passing games in the upcoming weeks, especially in Michigan and Ohio State, expect both offenses to run a ton of crossing routes and mesh routes to take advantage of the linebackers.
If Penn State can't find an answer in the middle of the field against the pass, they're going to have a hard time slowing down the likes of Michigan and Ohio State but also Minnesota, Maryland, and Michigan State who all have the abilities to be dangerous through the air.
On the surface, getting Abdul Carter and Curtis Jacobs on the field together could be an option but it remains to be seen if the Nittany Lions choose to go that direction.
2. Who will step up at wide receiver beyond Mitchell Tinsley and Parker Washington?
Penn State's talented wide receiver room through three weeks has left quite a bit to be desired. Mitchell Tinsley and Parker Washington have both had quality performances thus far. Tinsley leads the team with 17 receptions for 209 yards and three touchdowns, while Washington has 16 receptions for a team-high 212 receiving yards. Both players are on track for 45+ reception seasons and over 600 yards.
That being said, Penn State has yet to find a wide receiver who has stepped into the No. 3 wide receiver role this year.
While tight end Brenton Strange has emerged as a true receiving threat with 14 receptions for 211 yards and three touchdowns, the Nittany Lions must find another option at wide receiver.
Sophomore speedster KeAndre Lambert-Smith has just nine receptions for 104 yards and one touchdown while redshirt freshman Harrison Wallace III has six receptions for 74 yards. While both have shown flashes, neither has emerged as the Nittany Lions had hoped for early this season. Beyond Lambert-Smith and Wallace, no other Penn State wide receiver has more than three receptions.
While the Nittany Lions have certainly gotten playing time for wide receivers up-and-down their depth chart, the lack of a third option at the position remains a glaring issue. if they hope to beat the likes of Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State, they'll need at least a third wide receiver to emerge going forward.
3. Can Penn State find consistency at placekicker?
Special teams overall for Penn State this season haven't exactly been a strength. While redshirt senior punter Barney Amor has been tremendous for Penn State, every other aspect of their special teams has been inconsistent.
The biggest question mark on special teams, however, remains the Nittany Lions' placekicking abilities. Through four games, starting placekicker Jake Pinegar is 18-for-20 on the season in extra point attempts but has had two kicks blocked in three weeks, though neither were his fault. However, in field goal attempts, he's 3-for-5 missing a 42-yard field goal against Ohio and a 38-yard field goal against Central Michigan, both well-makeable kicks.
Consistency has always been an issue for Pinegar who is now 40-for-56 in his career at Penn State. In week three against Auburn, Pinegar made an impressive 48-yard field goal, which many thought, including himself, could give the Iowa native some much-needed confidence. However, his 38-yard miss this past Saturday against Central Michigan means that all the questions regarding consistency remain if not elevated even more.
When it comes to redshirt freshman Sander Sahaydak, once the country's top-ranked high school kicker, the Penn State coaching staff has yet to show trust in the Bethlehem (PA) native. He's attempted just one field goal in his career, a 56-yard attempt against Central Michigan that ultimately ended up short.
With their tough schedule ahead and likely needing to count on their placekicking to pick up some valuable points via the field goal, the Nittany Lions will have to hope that Pinegar either finds the consistency that he's struggled to have since 2019 or that the redshirt freshman in Sahaydak emerges as a viable option over the next few weeks.
These of course are not the only questions surrounding Penn State heading into October. Questions still remain regarding Penn State's depth at several positions, as well as at quarterback, whether Sean Clifford can be consistent in limiting turnovers but still being able to make big throws when needed.
All in all, compared to where Penn State was coming into the season, the Nittany Lions 4-0 start has been impressive and they've been a much better team than expected. They pulled out an impressive victory on the road against Purdue, were thoroughly dominant against Ohio and Auburn and despite a sluggish second quarter, was never out of control against Central Michigan. Their matchup against Northwestern this weekend should be much like their last three, at least on paper.
That being said, we've seen James Franklin's programs get off to these hot starts before such as last year's 5-0 start, the ultimate question that will be answered is how they'll handle the teeth of their schedule.
Additionally, if they were to suffer a setback at some point in October, whether it be against Michigan, Minnesota, or Ohio State, can they stop the bleeding. Franklin's teams at Penn State have have historically struggled to bounce back after their first loss of a season, ultimately, that will determine what type of team Penn State will be the remainder of the season. Expectations certainly have risen over the last 26 days, heading into week one, a 9-3 season was considered by most as a ceiling. Now, 9-3 appears to be the floor for the Nittany Lions if they continue to play at this level. A 10-2 should be deemed a success but an 11-1 season surely is not out of the question. Is it likely? Perhaps not but if Penn State can maintain the momentum they've built through these four weeks and find answers to some of their bigger questions, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility either.
Penn State will get their first chance to answer some of our questions heading into October this weekend against Northwestern. The Nittany Lions and Wildcats are set for a 3:30 p.m. kickoff at Beaver Stadium which will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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