It's almost time for Penn State Football as the Nittany Lions are in Phoenix, Arizona for the 2024 Fiesta Bowl, as they are all set to take on Boise State on Tuesday night.
With that being said, our staff here at Happy Valley Insider offers their predictions for Tuesday night's game between the two College Football Playoff programs.
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SPREAD: Penn State -11.5 points || Over/Under: 53.5 points
DYLAN CALLAGHAN-CROLEY -- Penn State: 34 || Boise State: 17
Boise State is a really good team, there's no doubt about that. But Penn State is the better team, and I'm not sure it's particularly close. This is a game that on paper, in my opinion, Penn State should roll in.
Obviously, Penn State's ability to win this game and by what margin will be decided by how they can do when it comes to slowing down Ashton Jeanty. Throughout the game, Jeanty is likely to get his, I imagine he may get two or three runs of 15-20 yards but if the Nittany Lions can keep him to about 3, 3.5 yards per carry for the most part, I think they'll have a great chance at running away with this one.
While this is a good Boise State offensive line, they haven't faced a front even as good as Penn State's this season, and I'm including Oregon in that matchup as Oregon wasn't playing at their full potential earlier this season. If Boise State faced Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl instead of Penn State, it wouldn't be close.
That being said, Boise State hasn't placed in nearly a month, which will be huge for Jeanty after having almost 350 carries in the regular season. Don't be surprised if Jeanty has some success early but throughout the game, I believe the Nittany Lions will be able to slow him down.
Offensively, Penn State has shown in the last two games they can move the ball on the ground against strong defenses and I expect that to continue on Tuesday. Expect a better performance out of the passing attack with the elements out of play, Drew Allar has also played well in closed roof/dome stadiums in his career. The Broncos secondary is extremely shaky and while the Nittany Lions don't have a deep wide receiver unit, they should be able to take advantage of this Boise State secondary.
Don't be surprised if this one is close at half time but I expect Penn State's rushing attack to especially wear down Boise State as the game progresses and pull away in the second half.
MARTY LEAP -- Penn State: 35 || Boise State: 21
Once again, opportunity is knocking for the Nittany Lions. When the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket was released no team seemed to have an easier path to reaching the National Championship Game than Penn State. After dismantling SMU 38-10 in the first round, the Nittany Lions now prepare to battle the 3rd-seeded Boise State Broncos as double-digit favorites in the Fiesta Bowl.
There is no denying the talent and ability of Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman runner-up is the best player Penn State will play against this season and is a special talent at running back. That said, Penn State's rush defense has been one of the best in the country this season. The Broncos do not throw the ball very often, and it's hard to envision the Bronco offensive line holding up for four quarters against the Penn State front seven.
Jeanty is going to get his yards, but if you're Penn State and that equates to Jeanty rushing for 130-140 yards on 35+ carries, you'll feel good about things. Where the Nittany Lions really have a big advantage is their offense against the Bronco defense.
Boise State defensive coordinator Erik Chinander loves to blitz and leave his defensive backs on an island. It may be due to this or due to not having the players capable of playing this system, but Boise State ranks 130th out of 134 FBS teams in pass plays of 30+ yards allowed. It would not be a surprise to see Trey Wallace or Omari Evans break a big one, and this should be a big game for Tyler Warren as Boise State's defense is weak at linebacker and in the middle of the field.
Boise State has a pair of good EDGE rushers, but overall the defensive line is one Penn State's offensive line should be able to control. The Broncos also rank 134th, that's right dead last nationally in missed tackle rate. That is not a recipe for success against running backs the caliber of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
It would not be a surprise to see this game be close for a half, but the Nittany Lions have far too much talent and depth for Boise State to contend with across four full quarters.
RICHIE O'LEARY -- Penn State: 35 || Boise State: 20
First things first, Penn State will be tasked with trying to stop Heisman runner-up and Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and that's something that really no one has been able to accomplish. You have to assume he's going to go for 100+ yards at least and that's fine, but the Penn State run defense has been very good as of late and that's because of the emergence of Tony Rojas, so they have a shot to slow him down. After Jeanty, the rest of the Broncos offense doesn't really scare me all that much and I expect the Nittany Lions defense to create some serious havoc for QB Maddux Madsen.
As for the flip side, Boise State struggles to tackle so don't be surprised to see some big chunk plays from guys like Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in this one.
Look for Penn State to roll once again, as they advance to the next round.
Dub Jellison -- Penn State: 31 || Boise State: 21
Another opportunity lies ahead for Penn State as they travel out west to take on Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Nittany Lions come into Tuesday as an 11.5-point favorite and have a chance to advance to the semifinals.
Boise State’s season has been a Cinderella story of sorts, but they haven’t played a team like Penn State since week two against Oregon.
The Nittany Lions provide one of the hardest tests of the year for the Broncos, as a strong run defense to contest Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is going to find success. That feels like a given, but the level to which that happens is the question mark. I think Penn State will be able to contain him just enough to force Maddux Madsen to have to make plays through the air.
Drew Allar and the offense also have an opportunity as Boise State has struggled to defend opposing aerial attacks at times this season. Allar, paired with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen out of the backfield will be a puzzle too tough to solve for Boise State’s defense.
Ultimately I see Penn State breaking away in the second half to keep the train moving and coming out of Arizona with a win.
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