It's almost time for Penn State Football as the Nittany Lions are in Miami, Florida for the 2025 Orange Bowl, as they are all set to take on Notre Dame on Thursday night.
With that being said, our staff here at Happy Valley Insider offers their predictions for Thursday night's game between the two College Football Playoff programs.
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SPREAD: Notre Dame -1.5 points || Over/Under: 45.5 points
DYLAN CALLAGHAN-CROLEY -- Penn State: 20 || Notre Dame: 13
Even from my objective point of view, it's hard to believe that Penn State, through all the ups-and-downs of the James Franklin era has arrived at this moment. The Nittany Lions are playing their biggest game in nearly 40 years and are 60 minutes away from competing for a national championship game.
Penn State fans should enjoy these final moments before Thursday night's matchup because both fanbases will experience a long night of anxiety-inducing football.
I expect this game to be a low scoring game, neither team in my opinion is going to win this game by more than seven points and I can see the winning margin being as low as a single point.
These two teams are very evenly matched with similar identities. Ultimately, I believe this comes down to the Nittany Lions' ability to slow down the Irish's rushing attack. As we've discussed this week, outside Jeremiyah Love's 98 yard touchdown run early against Indiana, Notre Dame's running backs have struggled to run the ball this postseason.
Penn State's defense on the other hand has shut down two superb running backs in back-to-back weeks in Brashard Smith of SMU and of course Ashton Jeanty of Boise State. Now, Notre Dame's offensive line is bigger, faster, and stronger than the two offensive lines for SMU and Boise State. However, the numbers are the numbers and I believe Penn State's defense is also a step up in competition for Notre Dame when compared to Indiana, and even, yes, UGA. If Penn State can contain Riley Leonard for the most part this evening, I don't see how Notre Dame moves the ball consistently.
I do think Penn State's offense could also be in for a long night, however. While, I think they'll run the ball better than most pundits have been saying, I do have my worries about their ability to find enough success through the air. Tyler Warren will get his but who else will step it up outside Warren? Trey Wallace has been consistent as well but they'll need an Omari Evans, Liam Clifford, or Julian Fleming to likely also step up for a few big catches.
That being said, I think Drew Allar is the better passing quarterback of the two between him and Riley Leonard and trust him more to make some of those big time throws that are needed to win games like this.
Give me Penn State to win this game but not comfortably, I see them leading 17-13 in the fourth quarter before getting a late field goal to win 20-13.
MARTY LEAP -- Penn State: 20 || Notre Dame: 14
It's not hyperbole to say this may be Penn State's biggest game since the 1987 Fiesta Bowl. With a win on Thursday night in Miami, Penn State will have an opportunity to play for the National Championship for the first time since that triumphant day in the desert nearly 40 years ago.
Awaiting the Nittany Lions will be a stiff challenge, but one that should look familiar. That is because if Penn State looked in the mirror, in a lot of ways, they just may see the Notre Dame Fighting Irish staring back at them.
Penn State and Notre Dame are both teams that win football games by being physical, having a run-first offense that features multiple future NFL running backs, and leaning on one of the best defenses in the country.
Both teams are also dealing with injuries entering the game. By all accounts, Abdul Carter will play for Penn State, as will star Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. However, neither of them will be anywhere near 100%.
Outside of Carter and Love, the other notable injuries would appear to impact the Irish more than the Nittany Lions. Notre Dame lost star defensive tackle Rylie Mills for the remainder of the CFP against Indiana, and his counterpart Howard Cross was banged up against Georgia, and is unlikely to be at 100% on Thursday night either.
Notre Dame has thinned out on the defensive line in terms of depth. So have the Nittany Lions, but it would appear to be a bigger issue for the Irish right now. Penn State must contain Riley Leonard's legs in this game. Notre Dame's ability to win may come down to how effectively Leonard can or can not run the ball. Special teams could be key too. The Irish are one of the most creative special teams units in the country and Bryce Young Jr. has been a menace when it comes to blocking kicks.
In my opinion, the Nittany Lions have the advantage at quarterback with Drew Allar. This combined with the Nittany Lion defense being slightly healthier gives them the edge in a low scoring, defensive battle.
RICHIE O'LEARY -- Penn State: 24 || Notre Dame: 10
While both teams have great defense, I give Penn State the advantage on the offensive side of the ball and I just can't see Notre Dame doing much of anything on offense against this Nittany Lions defense. Now the Fighting Irish do have a pretty solid rushing attack between RB Jeremiyah Love and QB Riley Leonard, the Nittany Lions just proved over the first two games of the CFP that it doesn't matter who's running the ball, they will stop them. They just held the nation's top running back in Ashton Jeanty to a season low 104 yards and in round one they held SMU's Brashard Smith to just 62 yards, despite him rushing for 1,332 on the year. Not to mention they have a strong secondary and one of the best pass rushes in the country led by Abdul Carter (yes I think he plays) and Dani-Dennis Sutton.
Flipping to the offense, the Nittany Lions won't have it easy as the Fighting Irish have a very strong defense from top to bottom. However with the way the Lawn Boyz (Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen) have been playing as of late, they have the potential take this game over and control the tempo. The duo has combined for 54 carries for 381 yards and four touchdowns so far this College Football Playoffs. Look for Penn State to try and establish the run early and it could open up the pass game for Drew Allar and co. to win this one.
DUB JELLISON -- Penn State: 24 || Notre Dame: 21
While the Nittany Lions have played four top-ranked teams this season, the Notre Dame squad in front of them are closer to Oregon and Ohio State, this season's losses, than Boise State and SMU. That provides Penn State with an opportunity to get over the hump and secure a National Championship opportunity.
Many of the aspects of the game Penn State excels in, Notre Dame is on par, or better, at least on paper. Electric ground game, suffocating defense and sound football. The key to Thursday could very well be how Drew Allar performs against the Fighting Irish's elite secondary, as their defensive line fights through injury troubles heading into the game.
I see Allar and the Penn State offense cracking the code and doing just enough to get the job done, thrusting the program into its first National Championship Game opportunity in almost 40 years.
ZANE BRANCEFIELD -- Penn State: 27 || Notre Dame: 24
While both teams have solid defenses, the offensive power is much greater and could lead the game to being a shootout. However, Penn State has a very solid rushing defense and the Fighting Irish love to run the ball. Whether it be with star running back Jeremiyah Love or quarterback, Riley Leonard. While Leonard can pass the ball he has no problem tucking a running. If the Irish utilize the arial attack, then Penn State may be in deep water. But considering what has happened most of the season, Penn State should be able to make it very difficult for Marcus Freeman and his team. On the flip side, Penn State has proven they can play in shootouts and the Nittany Lions are prepared to score a lot of points. The question then becomes “can Andy Kotelnicki stay consistent with plays that are working?” If Kotelnicki and the offense can get into a rhythm it will not matter who is playing defense as Penn State will be able to do anything they please.
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